Local Statistical Modeling via Cluster-Weighted Approach with Elliptical Distributions

Cluster Weighted Modeling (CWM) is a mixture approach regarding the modelisation of the joint probability of data coming from a heterogeneous population. Under Gaussian assumptions, we investigate statistical properties of CWM from both the theoretical and numerical point of view; in particular, we show that CWM includes as special cases mixtures of distributions and mixtures of regressions. Further, we introduce CWM based on Student-t distributions providing more robust fitting for groups of observations with longer than normal tails or atypical observations. Theoretical results are illustrated using some empirical studies, considering both real and simulated data.Cluster-Weighted Modeling, Mixture Models, Model-Based Clustering

Tropical and Extratropical Controls of Gulf of California Surges and Summertime Precipitation over the Southwestern United States

In this study ERA-Interim data are used to study the influence of Gulf of California (GoC) moisture surges on the North American monsoon (NAM) precipitation over Arizona and western New Mexico (AZWNM), as well as the connection with larger-scale tropical and extratropical variability. To identify GoC surges, an improved index based on principal component analyses of the near-surface GoC winds is introduced. It is found that GoC surges explain up to 70% of the summertime rainfall over AZWNM. The number of surges that lead to enhanced rainfall in this region varies from 4 to 18 per year and is positively correlated with annual summertime precipitation. Regression analyses are performed to explore the relationship between GoC surges, AZWNM precipitation, and tropical and extratropical atmospheric variability at the synoptic (2–8 days), quasi-biweekly (10–20 days), and subseasonal (25–90 days) time scales. It is found that tropical and extratropical waves, responsible for intrusions of moist tropical air into midlatitudes, interact on all three time scales, with direct impacts on the development of GoC surges and positive precipitation anomalies over AZWNM. Strong precipitation events in this region are, however, found to be associated with time scales longer than synoptic, with the quasi-biweekly and subseasonal modes playing a dominant role in the occurrence of these more extreme events

Iron metabolism and resistance to infection by invasive bacteria in the social amoeba Dictyostelium discoideum

Dictyostelium cells are forest soil amoebae, which feed on bacteria and proliferate as solitary cells until bacteria are consumed. Starvation triggers a change in life style, forcing cells to gather into aggregates to form multicellular organisms capable of cell differentiation and morphogenesis. As a soil amoeba and a phagocyte that grazes on bacteria as the obligate source of food, Dictyostelium could be a natural host of pathogenic bacteria. Indeed, many pathogens that occasionally infect humans are hosted for most of their time in protozoa or free-living amoebae, where evolution of their virulence traits occurs. Due to these features and its amenability to genetic manipulation, Dictyostelium has become a valuable model organism for studying strategies of both the host to resist infection and the pathogen to escape the defense mechanisms. Similarly to higher eukaryotes, iron homeostasis is crucial for Dictyostelium resistance to invasive bacteria. Iron is essential for Dictyostelium, as both iron deficiency or overload inhibit cell growth. The Dictyostelium genome shares with mammals many genes regulating iron homeostasis. Iron transporters of the Nramp (Slc11A) family are represented with two genes, encoding Nramp1 and Nramp2. Like the mammalian ortholog, Nramp1 is recruited to phagosomes and macropinosomes, whereas Nramp2 is a membrane protein of the contractile vacuole network, which regulates osmolarity. Nramp1 and Nramp2 localization in distinct compartments suggests that both proteins synergistically regulate iron homeostasis. Rather than by absorption via membrane transporters, iron is likely gained by degradation of ingested bacteria and efflux via Nramp1 from phagosomes to the cytosol. Nramp gene disruption increases Dictyostelium sensitivity to infection, enhancing intracellular growth of Legionella or Mycobacteria. Generation of mutants in other “iron genes” will help identify genes essential for iron homeostasis and resistance to pathogens

Earthquake‐induced landslide scenarios for seismic microzonation. Application to the Accumoli area (Rieti, Italy)

Scenarios of earthquake-induced landslides are necessary for seismic microzonation (SM) studies since they must be integrated with the mapping of instability areas. The PARSIFAL (Probabilistic Approach to pRovide Scenarios of earthquake‐Induced slope FAiLures) approach provides extensive analyses, over tens to thousands of square kilometers, and is designed as a fully comprehensive methodology to output expected scenarios which depend on seismic input and saturation conditions. This allows to attribute a rating, in terms of severity level, to the landslide-prone slope areas in view of future engineering studies and designs. PARSIFAL takes into account first-time rock- and earth-slides as well as re-activations of existing landslides performing slope stability analyses of different failure mechanisms. The results consist of mapping earthquake-induced landslide scenarios in terms of exceedance probability of critical threshold values of co-seismic displacements (P[D≥Dc|a(t),ay]). PARSIFAL was applied in the framework of level 3 SM studies over the municipality area of Accumoli (Rieti, Italy), strongly struck by the 2016 seismic sequence of Central Apennines. The use of the PARSIFAL was tested for the first time to screen the Susceptibility Zones (ZSFR) from the Attention Zones (ZAFR) in the category of the unstable areas, according to the guidelines by Italian Civil Protection. The results obtained were in a GIS-based mapping representing the possibility for a landslide to be induced by an earthquake (with a return period of 475 years) in three different saturation scenarios (i.e. dry, average, full). Only 41% of the landslide-prone areas in the Municipality of Accumoli are existing events, while the remaining 59% is characterized by first-time earth- or rock-slides. In dry conditions, unstable conditions or P[D≥Dc|a(t),ay]>0 were for 54% of existing landslides, 17% of first-time rock-slides and 1% of first-time earth- slides. In full saturation conditions, the findings are much more severe since unstable conditions or P[D≥Dc|a(t),ay]>0 were found for 58% of the existing landslides and for more than 80% of first-time rock- and earth-slides. Moreover, comparison of the total area of the ZAFR versus ZSFR, resulted in PARSIFAL screening reducing of 22% of the mapped ZAFR

Assessment of long-term prognosis at detection of early hepatocellular carcinoma remains unsolved

no abstract availabl