Modified Profile Likelihood for Fixed-Effects Panel Data Models

We show how modified profile likelihood methods, developed in the statistical literature, may be effectively applied to estimate the structural parameters of econometric models for panel data, with a remarkable reduction of bias with respect to ordinary likelihood methods. Initially, the implementation of these methods is illustrated for general models for panel data including individual-specific fixed effects and then, in more detail, for the truncated linear regression model and dynamic regression models for binary data formulated along with different specifications. Simulation studies show the good behavior of the inference based on the modified profile likelihood, even when compared to an ideal, although infeasible, procedure (in which the fixed effects are known) and also to alternative estimators existing in the econometric literature. The proposed estimation methods are implemented in an R package that we make available to the reader

Anti-Hepatitis C Virus Serology in Immune Thrombocytopenia: A Retrospective Analysis in 101 Patients.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV), an RNA virus, is known to be the major cause of post-transfusion non-A, non-B hepatitis. HCV can induce several expressions of autoimmunity, including both serological abnormalities and clinical disorders. The relationship between the HCV infection and anti-platelet autoimmunity has been occasionally described, but is still far from well-defined. We retrospectively analysed 101 serum specimens, collected between 1988 and 1994, from patients with immune thrombocytopenia (ITP) for the presence of anti-HCV antibodies. Eighty-seven patients were classified as having idiopathic, and 14 secondary ITP (4 systemic lupus erythematosus, 9 non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and 1 Evan's syndrome). Anti-HCV antibodies were determined by second generation tests (ELISA + RIBA). A specimen was considered positive for HCV antibodies in the presence of ELISA reactivity (sample optical density/cut-off > 1.00) accompanied by RIBA reactivity to at least one HCV specific antigen. 20 sera (20%) were positive, with a prevalence higher in secondary than in idiopathic ITP (43% vs. 16%, p < 0.05). No differences were found between anti-HCV positive and negative patients regarding gender, platelet count, platelet associated immunoglobulins, hepatitis B virus serology and liver enzyme profile. On the contrary, mean age was higher in the HCV positive vs HCV negative ones (58±18SD vs. 44±20yrs, p < 0.01), in keeping with the increasing prevalence of HCV infection with ageing. HCV positive patients, showed a poor response to treatment (platelet count lower than 50,000/μl after conventional medical therapy for immune thrombocytopenia) compared to anti-HCV negative ones, (50% versus 7.3%, p < 0.001). When we excluded patients who were exposed to risk factors for HCV infection after ITP diagnosis and before the serum collection, the prevalence of anti-HCV antibodies was not very different (17.6%) from that found in the series as a whole (19.8%). Our results seem to indicate that HCV infection may play a role in triggering several cases ITP, and moreover might constitute a negative prognostic factor for therapy response

Investigating the influence of outcome utility on estimates of probability

This thesis is concerned with the rationality of human probability estimates, specifically the potential influence of outcome utility on estimates of probability. Intuitively, and normatively, the desirability of an outcome should not make that outcome seem more or less likely to occur. Chapter 1 provides a background to the subsequent empirical work by addressing some general issues surrounding a probabilistic approach to human reasoning. The major questions addressed are whether people represent uncertainty quantitatively and their competence at doing so, considered with reference to the status of extant biases in the literature on human probability judgment. Chapter 2 presents seven studies investigating the effect of negative utility on estimates of probability, using a minimal paradigm in which there is a visually defined, objective, probability. When there was an indication that future human action could influence the likelihood of an outcome (the outcome was, in some way, controllable), negative outcomes were rated as more likely to occur than neutral outcomes.. This moderating effect of control can be given a decision-theoretic explanation in terms of loss function asymmetry (e.g., Weber, 1994). Consequently, these effects can be understood as rational reactions to the recognition of the uncertainty of human cognition. Chapter 3 investigates the effects of positive utility using the same visual representation of probability. Across four studies, no effect of positive outcome utility was observed, a result consistent with the asymmetric loss function explanation proposed for the findings in Chapter 2. Chapter 4 presents a statistical-based critique of the 'unrealistic optimism' phenomenon (e.g., Weinstein, 1980). Additionally, two empirical studies failed to find any evidence that the 'unrealistic optimism' phenomenon is more than just a statistical artifact. The results from all three experimental chapters provide support for the contention that people's probability estimates are not systematically biased by utility considerations.EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo

Likelihood based discrimination between separate scale and regression models.

The aim of this paper is to compare through simulation the likelihood ratio (LR) test with the most powerful invariant (MPI) test, and approximations thereof, for discriminating between two separate scale and regression models. The LR test as well as the approximate (first order) MPI test based on the leading term of the Laplace expansion for integrals are easy to compute. They only require the maximum likelihood estimates for the regression and scale parameters and the two observed informations. Even the approximate (second order) MPI test is not computationally heavy. On the contrary, the exact MPI test is expressed in terms of multidimensional integrals whose numerical evaluation appears reliable only in the two-dimensional and in the three-dimensional case. Two conclusions emerge in this paper. First, for scale and location models, exact (when computable) and approximate MPI tests are equivalent to the LR test in all the situations considered and for every sample size. This contrasts somehow with the prescription usually implied in the literature. Second, when the dimension of the regression parameter is a considerable fraction of a small or moderate sample size, the second order approximation to the MPI test clearly improves on the LR test, unlike the first order approximation

Confirmation of antiphospholipid antibody positivity: a year's results in a cohort of 113 patients

Objective: To evaluate the confirmation rate of antiphospholipid antibodies (aPL), to analyze their behaviour at confirmation time, and to study the clinical value of their confirmation. Methods: Blood samples from 380 subjects, enrolled in this study from June 1, 2007 to May 31, 2008, were tested for anti-cardiolipin (aCL) and anti-beta2glycoprotein (aβ2GPI) antibodies using an ELISA method and for Lupus anticoagulant (LA) using a series of clotting tests. The samples of the 113 subjects resulting positive at the first testing time were assayed again to confirm antiphospholipid positivity. Results: aPL positivity was confirmed in 67 out of the 113 subjects (59.3%). Medium-high antibody levels of all, except IgM aCL, aPL/ELISA had a significantly higher confirmation rate with respect to that in subjects with low levels. The confirmation rate in the category I antibody patients (multiple positivity) was higher than that in the category II antibody subjects (single positivity). LA positivity was confirmed only when it was associated to other aPL. The cut-off of 40 GPL produced a confirmation rate equal to that resulting from a 99th percentile cut-off. Confirmation of aPL positivity made it possible for us to confirm the diagnosis of antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) in 8 out of the 113 subjects originally resulting positive (7,1%). APS clinical features were vascular thrombosis in 4 of these and pregnancy morbidity in the other 4. Conclusions: Our data emphasize aPL positivity confirmation selectivity, and medium-high antibody levels and category I antibodies (multiple positivity) had the best confirmation rates

Language ability in preterm children is associated with arcuate fasciculi microstructure at term

In the mature human brain, the arcuate fasciculus mediates verbal working memory, word learning, and sublexical speech repetition. However, its contribution to early language acquisition remains unclear. In this work, we aimed to evaluate the role of the direct segments of the arcuate fasciculi in the early acquisition of linguistic function. We imaged a cohort of 43 preterm born infants (median age at birth of 30 gestational weeks; median age at scan of 42 postmenstrual weeks) using high b value high-angular resolution diffusion-weighted neuroimaging and assessed their linguistic performance at 2 years of age. Using constrained spherical deconvolution tractography, we virtually dissected the arcuate fasciculi and measured fractional anisotropy (FA) as a metric of white matter development. We found that term equivalent FA of the left and right arcuate fasciculi was significantly associated with individual differences in linguistic and cognitive abilities in early childhood, independent of the degree of prematurity. These findings suggest that differences in arcuate fasciculi microstructure at the time of normal birth have a significant impact on language development and modulate the first stages of language learning

Impact of tetrachloroethylene-contaminated drinking water on the risk of breast cancer: Using a dose model to assess exposure in a case-control study

BACKGROUND: A population-based case-control study was undertaken in 1997 to investigate the association between tetrachloroethylene (PCE) exposure from public drinking water and breast cancer among permanent residents of the Cape Cod region of Massachusetts. PCE, a volatile organic chemical, leached from the vinyl lining of certain water distribution pipes into drinking water from the late 1960s through the early 1980s. The measure of exposure in the original study, referred to as the relative delivered dose (RDD), was based on an amount of PCE in the tap water entering the home and estimated with a mathematical model that involved only characteristics of the distribution system. METHODS: In the current analysis, we constructed a personal delivered dose (PDD) model that included personal information on tap water consumption and bathing habits so that inhalation, ingestion, and dermal absorption were also considered. We reanalyzed the association between PCE and breast cancer and compared the results to the original RDD analysis of subjects with complete data. RESULTS: The PDD model produced higher adjusted odds ratios than the RDD model for exposures > 50(th )and >75(th )percentile when shorter latency periods were considered, and for exposures < 50(th )and >90(th )percentile when longer latency periods were considered. Overall, however, the results from the PDD analysis did not differ greatly from the RDD analysis. CONCLUSION: The inputs that most heavily influenced the PDD model were initial water concentration and duration of exposure. These variables were also included in the RDD model. In this study population, personal factors like bath and shower temperature, bathing frequencies and durations, and water consumption did not differ greatly among subjects, so including this information in the model did not significantly change subjects' exposure classification

Reassessing associations between white matter and behaviour with multimodal microstructural imaging

Several studies have established specific relationships between White Matter (WM) and behaviour. However, these studies have typically focussed on fractional anisotropy (FA), a neuroimaging metric that is sensitive to multiple tissue properties, making it difficult to identify what biological aspects of WM may drive such relationships. Here, we carry out a pre-registered assessment of WM-behaviour relationships in 50 healthy individuals across multiple behavioural and anatomical domains, and complementing FA with myelin-sensitive quantitative MR modalities (MT, R1, R2∗). Surprisingly, we only find support for predicted relationships between FA and behaviour in one of three pre-registered tests. For one behavioural domain, where we failed to detect an FA-behaviour correlation, we instead find evidence for a correlation between behaviour and R1. This hints that multimodal approaches are able to identify a wider range of WM-behaviour relationships than focusing on FA alone. To test whether a common biological substrate such as myelin underlies WM-behaviour relationships, we then ran joint multimodal analyses, combining across all MRI parameters considered. No significant multimodal signatures were found and power analyses suggested that sample sizes of 40-200 may be required to detect such joint multimodal effects, depending on the task being considered. These results demonstrate that FA-behaviour relationships from the literature can be replicated, but may not be easily generalisable across domains. Instead, multimodal microstructural imaging may be best placed to detect a wider range of WM-behaviour relationships, as different MRI modalities provide distinct biological sensitivities. Our findings highlight a broad heterogeneity in WM's relationship with behaviour, suggesting that variable biological effects may be shaping their interaction