Using copulas to construct bivariate foreign exchange distributions with an application to the sterling exchange rate index (revised)

We model the joint risk neutral distribution of the euro-sterling and the dollar-sterling exchange rates using option-implied marginal distributions that are connected via a copula function that satisfies the triangular no-arbitrage condition. We then derive a univariate distribution for a simplified sterling effective exchange rate index (ERI). Our results indicate that standard parametric copula functions, such as the commonly used Normal and Frank copulas, fail to capture the degree of asymmetry observed in the data. We overcome this problem by using a non-parametric dependence function in the form of a Bernstein copula which is shown to produce a very close fit. We further give an example of how our approach can be used to price currency index options accounting for strike-dependent implied volatilities

Fluid Intake and Hydration Responses to Mass Participation Gravel Cycling

Gravel cycling is a relatively new cycling discipline, with the Union Cycliste Internationale (UCI) hosting their first UCI Gravel World Championships in 2022. Gravel races combine features of road racing, cyclocross, and mountain biking, including various terrain of varying technical difficulty (paved roads, dirt roads, fire roads, single- and double-track trails), long distances, substantial vertical elevation gain, obstacles, and limited opportunities to stop for in-race nutrition. PURPOSE: To date, gravel racing has not been scientifically examined to determine the demands of the sport. Data from cycling road races indicate substantial fluid loss, which may impair exercise performance. This study assessed hydration responses to gravel races of three different distances. METHODS: This field study collected data on saliva osmolarity, body mass, fluid intake, and nutrition knowledge. Variables were assessed before and after a gravel cycling race in April 2023. A total of 121 participants completed pre-race surveys, 53 provided pre-race measures of body mass and saliva osmolarity (SOsm), and 38 participants completed post-race testing. RESULTS: Based on manufacturer cutpoints for SOsm, only 22.6% (n = 12) of participants were hydrated before the race, with 56.6% mildly dehydrated (n = 30), 18.9% moderately dehydrated (n = 10), and 1.9% severely dehydrated (n = 1). Post-race, 15% (n=6) were still hydrated, 20% (n = 8) were mildly dehydrated, 47.5% (n = 19) were moderately dehydrated, and 17.5% (n = 7) were severely dehydrated. Analyses revealed significant decreases in body mass and increases in SOsm from pre- to post-exercise in the two longer race distances (p \u3c 0.05). There was a significant effect of race distance on energy, fluid, carbohydrate, and sodium intake (p \u3c 0.05), but post-hoc comparisons were only significant for fluid intake. Sweat rates were not different (p \u3e 0.05). Change in percent body mass and change in SOsm were not correlated (r = -0.254, p = 0.118). Longer race distances were associated with higher energy, fluid, carbohydrate, and sodium intake. CONCLUSION: This study provides data quantifying the fluid and nutrient intake during mass participation gravel cycling. Future studies should expand on our results by capturing in-race nutrient data and more sensitive hydration assessments

Fifteen-year survival of endoscopic anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction in patients aged 18 years and younger

Background: The current body of literature surrounding anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) survival and the variables contributing to further ACL injuries after primary ACL reconstruction in children and adolescents is limited, with no long-term evidence examining the incidence and contributing factors of further ACL injuries in this younger patient population. Purpose: To determine the long-term survival of the ACL graft and the contralateral ACL (CACL) after primary reconstruction in patients aged 18 years and to identify the factors that increase the odds of subsequent ACL injuries. Study Design: Case series; Level of evidence, 4. Methods: Patients having undergone primary ACL reconstruction at age 18 years between 1993 and 1998 who were included in a prospective database by a single surgeon were considered for this study. Single-incision endoscopic ACL reconstruction was performed with either an autologous bone–patellar tendon–bone graft or a hamstring tendon graft. At a minimum of 15 years after ACL reconstruction, patients completed a subjective survey involving the International Knee Documentation Committee (IKDC) questionnaire in addition to questions regarding current symptoms, further ACL injuries, family history of ACL injury, and current level of activity. Results: A total of 288 adolescents (age range, 13-18 years) met the inclusion criteria, of whom 242 (84%) were reviewed at a mean of 16 years and 6 months after ACL reconstruction. Of these patients, 75 (31%) sustained a further ACL injury: 27 (11.2%) suffered an ACL graft rupture, 33 suffered a CACL injury (13.6%), and 15 sustained both an ACL graft rupture and a CACL injury (6.2%) over 15 years. Survival of the ACL graft was 95%, 92%, 88%, 85%, and 83% at 1, 2, 5, 10, and 15 years, respectively, and survival of the CACL was 99%, 98%, 90%, 83%, and 81%, respectively. Survival of the ACL graft was less favorable in those with a family history of ACL injury than in those without a family history (69% vs 90%, respectively; hazard ratio [HR], 3.6; P = .001). Survival of the CACL was less favorable in male patients than in female patients (75% vs 88%, respectively; HR, 2.1; P = .03) and in those who returned to competitive team ball sports than in those who did not (78% vs 89%, respectively; HR, 2.3; P = .05). Conclusion: After ACL reconstruction in patients aged 18 years, a further ACL injury occurred in 1 in 3 patients over 15 years. The 15-year survival rate of the ACL graft was 83%, and the 15-year survival rate of the CACL was 81%. The ACL graft and CACL were most vulnerable within the first 5 years after index surgery. A family history of ACL rupture significantly increased the risk for ACL graft ruptures, and a CACL injury was more common in male patients and those who returned to team ball sports. High IKDC scores and continued participation in sports were maintained over the long term after ACL reconstruction in the adolescent population

Reliability of Hand-Held Dynamometry for Measuring Force Production in People with Parkinson’s Disease

Purpose: People with Parkinson’s disease (PD) have impaired force production, which is associated with decreased mobility and falls risk. Reliable measurement of force production is important. Design: A repeated-measures, intra- and inter-rater reliability study was undertaken. Participants: 24 people with mild PD were measured by one or two raters. Outcome measures: Isometric force of the major upper and lower limb muscle groups was measured using hand-held dynamometry. Results: Fourteen participants were measured by the same rater on two occasions to determine intra-rater reliability. Ten participants were measured on two occasions by two different raters to determine inter-rater reliability. The intra-rater reliability of hand-held dynamometry was excellent in every muscle group, except the dorsiflexors. Intra-rater reliability was highest when measuring wrist extensors (ICC(2,1) = 0.98, 95% CI: 0.94 to 0.99) and lowest when measuring ankle dorsiflexors (ICC(2,1) = 0.87, 95% CI: 0.43 to 0.97). Inter-rater reliability was variable ranging from poor (wrist flexors: ICC(2,2) = -0.15, 95% CI: -1.14 to 0.60) to excellent (grip strength: ICC(2,2) = 0.97, 95% CI: 0.88 to 0.99). Conclusion: Hand-held dynamometry has good to excellent intra-rater reliability, but poor inter-rater reliability, for measuring force in the upper and lower limb in people with mild PD

Feedback from activity trackers improves daily step count after knee and hip arthroplasty: A randomized controlled trial

Background: Commercial wrist-worn activity monitors have the potential to accurately assess activity levels and are being increasingly adopted in the general population. The aim of this study was to determine if feedback from a commercial activity monitor improves activity levels over the first 6 weeks after total hip arthroplasty (THA) or total knee arthroplasty (TKA). Methods: One hundred sixty-three consecutive subjects undergoing primary TKA or THAwere randomized into 2 groups. Subjects received an activity tracker with the step display obscured 2 weeks before surgery and completed patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs). On day 1 after surgery, participants were randomized to either the “feedback (FB) group” or the “no feedback (NFB) group.” The FB group was able to view their daily step count and was given a daily step goal. Participants in the NFB group wore the device with the display obscured for 2 weeks after surgery, after which time they were also able to see their daily step count but did not receive a formal step goal. The mean daily steps at 1, 2, 6 weeks, and 6 months were monitored. At 6 months after surgery, subjects repeated PROMs and daily step count collection. Results: Of the 163 subjects, 95 underwent THA and 68 underwent TKA. FB subjects had a significantly higher (P \u3c .03) mean daily step count by 43% in week 1, 33% in week 2, 21% in week 6, and 17% at 6 months, compared with NFB. The FB subjects were 1.7 times more likely to achieve a mean 7000 steps per day than the NFB subjects at 6 weeks after surgery (P ¼ .02). There was no significant difference between the groups in PROMs at 6 months. Ninety percent of FB and 83% of NFB participants reported that they were satisfied with the results of the surgery (P ¼ .08). At 6 months after surgery, 70% of subjects had a greater mean daily step count compared with their preoperative level. Conclusion: Subjects who received feedback from a commercial activity tracker with a daily step goal had significantly higher activity levels after hip and knee arthroplasty over 6 weeks and 6 months, compared with subjects who did not receive feedback in a randomized controlled trial. Commercial activity trackers may be a useful and effective adjunct after arthroplasty

Standardization of molecular monitoring of CML: results and recommendations from the European treatment and outcome study

Standardized monitoring of BCR::ABL1 mRNA levels is essential for the management of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) patients. From 2016 to 2021 the European Treatment and Outcome Study for CML (EUTOS) explored the use of secondary, lyophilized cell-based BCR::ABL1 reference panels traceable to the World Health Organization primary reference material to standardize and validate local laboratory tests. Panels were used to assign and validate conversion factors (CFs) to the International Scale and assess the ability of laboratories to assess deep molecular response (DMR). The study also explored aspects of internal quality control. The percentage of EUTOS reference laboratories (n = 50) with CFs validated as optimal or satisfactory increased from 67.5% to 97.6% and 36.4% to 91.7% for ABL1 and GUSB, respectively, during the study period and 98% of laboratories were able to detect MR4.5 in most samples. Laboratories with unvalidated CFs had a higher coefficient of variation for BCR::ABL1IS and some laboratories had a limit of blank greater than zero which could affect the accurate reporting of DMR. Our study indicates that secondary reference panels can be used effectively to obtain and validate CFs in a manner equivalent to sample exchange and can also be used to monitor additional aspects of quality assurance

Food for life partnership evaluation: summary report

Summary report of the Food for Life Partnership evaluation conducted by UWE,Bristol and Cardiff University. May 201

An Increasing Stellar Baryon Fraction in Bright Galaxies at High Redshift

Recent observations have shown that the characteristic luminosity of the rest-frame ultraviolet (UV) luminosity function does not significantly evolve at 4 < z < 7 and is approximately M*_UV ~ -21. We investigate this apparent non-evolution by examining a sample of 178 bright, M_UV < -21 galaxies at z=4 to 7, analyzing their stellar populations and host halo masses. Including deep Spitzer/IRAC imaging to constrain the rest-frame optical light, we find that M*_UV galaxies at z=4-7 have similar stellar masses of log(M/Msol)=9.6-9.9 and are thus relatively massive for these high redshifts. However, bright galaxies at z=4-7 are less massive and have younger inferred ages than similarly bright galaxies at z=2-3, even though the two populations have similar star formation rates and levels of dust attenuation. We match the abundances of these bright z=4-7 galaxies to halo mass functions from the Bolshoi Lambda-CDM simulation to estimate the halo masses. We find that the typical halo masses in ~M*_UV galaxies decrease from log(M_h/Msol)=11.9 at z=4 to log(M_h/Msol)=11.4 at z=7. Thus, although we are studying galaxies at a similar mass across multiple redshifts, these galaxies live in lower mass halos at higher redshift. The stellar baryon fraction in units of the cosmic mean Omega_b/Omega_m rises from 5.1% at z=4 to 11.7% at z=7; this evolution is significant at the ~3-sigma level. This rise does not agree with simple expectations of how galaxies grow, and implies that some effect, perhaps a diminishing efficiency of feedback, is allowing a higher fraction of available baryons to be converted into stars at high redshifts.Comment: Accepted to ApJ. 15 pages, 5 figures, 6 table

Sunflecks in the upper canopy: dynamics of light-use efficiency in sun and shade leaves of Fagus sylvatica

Sunflecks are transient patches of direct radiation that provide a substantial proportion of the daily irradiance to leaves in the lower canopy. In this position, faster photosynthetic induction would allow for higher sunfleck-use efficiency, as is commonly reported in the literature. Yet, when sunflecks are too few and far between, it may be more beneficial for shade leaves to prioritize efficient photosynthesis under shade. We investigated the temporal dynamics of photosynthetic induction, recovery under shade, and stomatal movement during a sunfleck, in sun and shade leaves of Fagus sylvatica from three provenances of contrasting origin. We found that shade leaves complete full induction in a shorter time than sun leaves, but that sun leaves respond faster than shade leaves due to their much larger amplitude of induction. The core-range provenance achieved faster stomatal opening in shade leaves, which may allow for better sunfleck-use efficiency in denser canopies and lower canopy positions. Our findings represent a paradigm shift for future research into light fluctuations in canopies, drawing attention to the ubiquitous importance of sunflecks for photosynthesis, not only in lower-canopy leaves where shade is prevalent, but particularly in the upper canopy where longer sunflecks are more common due to canopy openness