Clonal Hypereosinophilic Syndrome: Two Cases Report in Black Men from Sub-Saharan Africa and Literature Reviews

The first case is about a man of 60 years old suffering of hypereosinophilic syndrome (HES) developed since 1998. He presented chronic cough, insomnia, and negative parasitical test. We observed hypereosinophilia and fibroblastic hyperplasia at the bone marrow biopsy. Initially, hydroxyurea and α-interferon treatment failed. We proposed to him imatinib mesylate in May 2003. The FIP1L1-PDGFRA gene was detected. The second case is about a man of 34 years old seen in March 2002. First investigation concluded to CML. Progressively, eosinophil cells increased, and complications occurred as oedema syndrome, dyspnoea, and parietal chronic endocarditic fibrosis associated with pericarditis. In addition, a bowel obstruction happened and was cured by surgery. Bcr-abl fusion was negative, and FIP1L1-PDGFRA gene was detected after and imatinib mesylate was given. Actually, endocarditic fibrosis decreased. The two patients are in haematological and cytogenetic remission. We concluded that clonal HES is present in Africa, and imatinib mesylate is effective

Application of Functional Data Analysis to Identify Patterns of Malaria Incidence, to Guide Targeted Control Strategies.

We introduce an approach based on functional data analysis to identify patterns of malaria incidence to guide effective targeting of malaria control in a seasonal transmission area. Using functional data method, a smooth function (functional data or curve) was fitted from the time series of observed malaria incidence for each of 575 villages in west-central Senegal from 2008 to 2012. These 575 smooth functions were classified using hierarchical clustering (Ward's method), and several different dissimilarity measures. Validity indices were used to determine the number of distinct temporal patterns of malaria incidence. Epidemiological indicators characterizing the resulting malaria incidence patterns were determined from the velocity and acceleration of their incidences over time. We identified three distinct patterns of malaria incidence: high-, intermediate-, and low-incidence patterns in respectively 2% (12/575), 17% (97/575), and 81% (466/575) of villages. Epidemiological indicators characterizing the fluctuations in malaria incidence showed that seasonal outbreaks started later, and ended earlier, in the low-incidence pattern. Functional data analysis can be used to identify patterns of malaria incidence, by considering their temporal dynamics. Epidemiological indicators derived from their velocities and accelerations, may guide to target control measures according to patterns

Spatio-temporal spread of epidemics : comparative approach of mathematical and bio-statistical modeling, intervention targets and human mobility

Dans la première partie de cette thèse, nous avons mis en place un métamodèle de transmission du paludisme basé sur la modélisation compartimentale susceptible-infecté-résistant (SIR) et prenant en compte les flux de mobilité humaine entre différents villages du Centre Sénégal. Les stratégies d’intervention géographiquement ciblées, s’étaient avérées efficaces pour réduire l’incidence du paludisme aussi bien dans les zones d’intervention qu’à l’extérieur de ces zones. Cependant, des actions combinées ciblant à la fois le vecteur et l’hôte, coordonnées à large échelle sont nécessaires dans les régions et pays visant l’élimination du paludisme à court/moyen terme.Dans la deuxième partie nous avons évalué différentes méthodes d’estimation de la mobilité humaine en l’absence de données individuelles. Ces méthodes incluaient la traçabilité spatio-temporelle des téléphones mobiles ainsi que les modèles mathématiques de gravité et de radiation. Le transport de l’agent pathogène dans l’espace géographique, par la mobilité d’un sujet infecté est un déterminant majeur de la vitesse de propagation d’une épidémie. Nous avons introduit le modèle d’impédance qui minimise l’erreur quadratique moyen sur les estimations de mobilité, en particulier dans les contextes où les ensembles de population sont caractérisés par leurs tailles hétérogènes.Nous avons enfin élargi le cadre des hypothèses sous-jacentes à la calibration des modèles de gravité de la mobilité humaine. L’hypothèse d’une distribution avec excès de zéros a fourni un meilleur ajustement et une meilleure prédictibilité, comparée aux hypothèses classiques n’assumant pas un excès de zéros : Poisson, Quasipoisson.In the first part of this thesis, we have developed a malaria transmission metamodel based on the susceptible-infected-resistant compartmental modeling framework (SIR) and taking into consideration human mobility flows between different villages in the Center of Senegal. Geographically targeted intervention strategies had been shown to be effective in reducing the incidence of malaria both within and outside of intervention areas. However, combined interventions targeting both vector and host, coordinated on a large scale are needed in regions and countries aiming to achieve malaria elimination in the short/medium term.In the second part we have evaluated different methods of estimating human mobility in the absence of real data. These methods included spatio-temporal traceability of mobile phones, mathematical models of gravity and radiation. The transport of the pathogen through the geographical space via the mobility of an infected subject is a major determinant of the spread of an epidemic. We introduced the impedance model that minimized the mean square error on mobility estimates, especially in contexts where population sets are characterized by their heterogeneous sizes.Finally, we have expanded the framework of assumptions underlying the calibration of the gravity models of human mobility. The hypothesis of a zero inflated distribution provided a better fit and a better predictability, compared to the classical approach not assuming an excess of zeros: Poisson, Quasipoisson

Cholera Outbreak in Grande Comore: 1998-1999

International audienceIn 1998, a cholera epidemic in east Africa reached the Comoros Islands, an archipelago in the Mozambique Channel that had not reported a cholera case for more than 20 years. In just a little over 1 year (between January 1998 and March 1999), Grande Comore, the largest island in the Union of the Comoros, reported 7,851 cases of cholera, about 3% of the population. Using case reports and field observations during the medical response, we describe the epidemiology of the 1998–1999 cholera epidemic in Grande Comore. Outbreaks of infectious diseases on islands provide a unique opportunity to study transmission dynamics in a nearly closed population, and they may serve as stepping-stones for human pathogens to cross unpopulated expanses of ocean

Using Mobile Phone Data to Predict the Spatial Spread of Cholera

International audienceEffective response to infectious disease epidemics requires focused control measures in areas predicted to be at high risk of new outbreaks. We aimed to test whether mobile operator data could predict the early spatial evolution of the 2010 Haiti cholera epidemic. Daily case data were analysed for 78 study areas from October 16 to December 16, 2010. Movements of 2.9 million anonymous mobile phone SIM cards were used to create a national mobility network. Two gravity models of population mobility were implemented for comparison. Both were optimized based on the complete retrospective epidemic data, available only after the end of the epidemic spread. Risk of an area experiencing an outbreak within seven days showed strong dose-response relationship with the mobile phone-based infectious pressure estimates. The mobile phone-based model performed better (AUC 0.79) than the retrospectively optimized gravity models (AUC 0.66 and 0.74, respectively). Infectious pressure at outbreak onset was significantly correlated with reported cholera cases during the first ten days of the epidemic (p < 0.05). Mobile operator data is a highly promising data source for improving preparedness and response efforts during cholera outbreaks. Findings may be particularly important for containment efforts of emerging infectious diseases, including high-mortality influenza strains

“Spatial heterogeneity of environmental risk in randomized prevention trials: consequences and modeling”

International audienceBACKGROUND:In the context of environmentally influenced communicable diseases, proximity to environmental sources results in spatial heterogeneity of risk, which is sometimes difficult to measure in the field. Most prevention trials use randomization to achieve comparability between groups, thus failing to account for heterogeneity. This study aimed to determine under what conditions spatial heterogeneity biases the results of randomized prevention trials, and to compare different approaches to modeling this heterogeneity.METHODS:Using the example of a malaria prevention trial, simulations were performed to quantify the impact of spatial heterogeneity and to compare different models. Simulated scenarios combined variation in baseline risk, a continuous protective factor (age), a non-related factor (sex), and a binary protective factor (preventive treatment). Simulated spatial heterogeneity scenarios combined variation in breeding site density and effect, location, and population density. The performances of the following five statistical models were assessed: a non-spatial Cox Proportional Hazard (Cox-PH) model and four models accounting for spatial heterogeneity-i.e., a Data-Generating Model, a Generalized Additive Model (GAM), and two Stochastic Partial Differential Equation (SPDE) models, one modeling survival time and the other the number of events. Using a Bayesian approach, we estimated the SPDE models with an Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation algorithm. For each factor (age, sex, treatment), model performances were assessed by quantifying parameter estimation biases, mean square errors, confidence interval coverage rates (CRs), and significance rates. The four models were applied to data from a malaria transmission blocking vaccine candidate.RESULTS:The level of baseline risk did not affect our estimates. However, with a high breeding site density and a strong breeding site effect, the Cox-PH and GAM models underestimated the age and treatment effects (but not the sex effect) with a low CR. When population density was low, the Cox-SPDE model slightly overestimated the effect of related factors (age, treatment). The two SPDE models corrected the impact of spatial heterogeneity, thus providing the best estimates.CONCLUSION:Our results show that when spatial heterogeneity is important but not measured, randomization alone cannot achieve comparability between groups. In such cases, prevention trials should model spatial heterogeneity with an adapted method.TRIAL REGISTRATION:The dataset used for the application example was extracted from Vaccine Trial #NCT02334462 ( ClinicalTrials.gov registry)

Spatio-temporal variation of malaria hotspots in Central Senegal, 2008–2012

International audienceBackground: In malaria endemic areas, identifying spatio-temporal hotspots is becoming an important element of innovative control strategies targeting transmission bottlenecks. The aim of this work was to describe the spatio-temporal variation of malaria hotspots in central Senegal and to identify the meteorological, environmental, and preventive factors that influence this variation. Methods: This study analysed the weekly incidence of malaria cases recorded from 2008 to 2012 in 575 villages of central Senegal (total population approximately 500,000) as part of a trial of seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC). Data on weekly rainfall and annual vegetation types were obtained for each village through remote sensing. The time series of weekly malaria incidence for the entire study area was divided into periods of high and low transmission using change-point analysis. Malaria hotspots were detected during each transmission period with the SaTScan method. The effects of rainfall, vegetation type, and SMC intervention on the spatio-temporal variation of malaria hotspots were assessed using a General Additive Mixed Model. Results: The malaria incidence for the entire area varied between 0 and 115.34 cases/100,000 person weeks during the study period. During high transmission periods, the cumulative malaria incidence rate varied between 7.53 and 38.1 cases/100,000 person-weeks, and the number of hotspot villages varied between 62 and 147. During low transmission periods, the cumulative malaria incidence rate varied between 0.83 and 2.73 cases/100,000 person-weeks, and the number of hotspot villages varied between 10 and 43. Villages with SMC were less likely to be hotspots (OR = 0.48, IC95%: 0.33-0.68). The association between rainfall and hotspot status was non-linear and depended on both vegetation type and amount of rainfall. The association between village location in the study area and hotspot status was also shown. Conclusion: In our study, malaria hotspots varied over space and time according to a combination of meteorological, environmental, and preventive factors. By taking into consideration the environmental and meteorological characteristics common to all hotspots, monitoring of these factors could lead targeted public health interventions at the local level. Moreover, spatial hotspots and foci of malaria persisting during LTPs need to be further addressed. Trial registration: The data used in this work were obtained from a clinical trial registered on July 10, 2008 at www.clinicaltrials.gov under NCT00712374

Natural language processing of multi-hospital electronic health records for public health surveillance of suicidality

Abstract There is an urgent need to monitor the mental health of large populations, especially during crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic, to timely identify the most at-risk subgroups and to design targeted prevention campaigns. We therefore developed and validated surveillance indicators related to suicidality: the monthly number of hospitalisations caused by suicide attempts and the prevalence among them of five known risks factors. They were automatically computed analysing the electronic health records of fifteen university hospitals of the Paris area, France, using natural language processing algorithms based on artificial intelligence. We evaluated the relevance of these indicators conducting a retrospective cohort study. Considering 2,911,920 records contained in a common data warehouse, we tested for changes after the pandemic outbreak in the slope of the monthly number of suicide attempts by conducting an interrupted time-series analysis. We segmented the assessment time in two sub-periods: before (August 1, 2017, to February 29, 2020) and during (March 1, 2020, to June 31, 2022) the COVID-19 pandemic. We detected 14,023 hospitalisations caused by suicide attempts. Their monthly number accelerated after the COVID-19 outbreak with an estimated trend variation reaching 3.7 (95%CI 2.1–5.3), mainly driven by an increase among girls aged 8–17 (trend variation 1.8, 95%CI 1.2–2.5). After the pandemic outbreak, acts of domestic, physical and sexual violence were more often reported (prevalence ratios: 1.3, 95%CI 1.16–1.48; 1.3, 95%CI 1.10–1.64 and 1.7, 95%CI 1.48–1.98), fewer patients died (p = 0.007) and stays were shorter (p < 0.001). Our study demonstrates that textual clinical data collected in multiple hospitals can be jointly analysed to compute timely indicators describing mental health conditions of populations. Our findings also highlight the need to better take into account the violence imposed on women, especially at early ages and in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic