Forecasting the effects of smoking prevalence scenarios on years of life lost and life expectancy from 2022 to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Smoking is the leading behavioural risk factor for mortality globally, accounting for more than 175 million deaths and nearly 4·30 billion years of life lost (YLLs) from 1990 to 2021. The pace of decline in smoking prevalence has slowed in recent years for many countries, and although strategies have recently been proposed to achieve tobacco-free generations, none have been implemented to date. Assessing what could happen if current trends in smoking prevalence persist, and what could happen if additional smoking prevalence reductions occur, is important for communicating the effect of potential smoking policies. Methods: In this analysis, we use the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's Future Health Scenarios platform to forecast the effects of three smoking prevalence scenarios on all-cause and cause-specific YLLs and life expectancy at birth until 2050. YLLs were computed for each scenario using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 reference life table and forecasts of cause-specific mortality under each scenario. The reference scenario forecasts what could occur if past smoking prevalence and other risk factor trends continue, the Tobacco Smoking Elimination as of 2023 (Elimination-2023) scenario quantifies the maximum potential future health benefits from assuming zero percent smoking prevalence from 2023 onwards, whereas the Tobacco Smoking Elimination by 2050 (Elimination-2050) scenario provides estimates for countries considering policies to steadily reduce smoking prevalence to 5%. Together, these scenarios underscore the magnitude of health benefits that could be reached by 2050 if countries take decisive action to eliminate smoking. The 95% uncertainty interval (UI) of estimates is based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of draws that were carried through the multistage computational framework. Findings: Global age-standardised smoking prevalence was estimated to be 28·5% (95% UI 27·9–29·1) among males and 5·96% (5·76–6·21) among females in 2022. In the reference scenario, smoking prevalence declined by 25·9% (25·2–26·6) among males, and 30·0% (26·1–32·1) among females from 2022 to 2050. Under this scenario, we forecast a cumulative 29·3 billion (95% UI 26·8–32·4) overall YLLs among males and 22·2 billion (20·1–24·6) YLLs among females over this period. Life expectancy at birth under this scenario would increase from 73·6 years (95% UI 72·8–74·4) in 2022 to 78·3 years (75·9–80·3) in 2050. Under our Elimination-2023 scenario, we forecast 2·04 billion (95% UI 1·90–2·21) fewer cumulative YLLs by 2050 compared with the reference scenario, and life expectancy at birth would increase to 77·6 years (95% UI 75·1–79·6) among males and 81·0 years (78·5–83·1) among females. Under our Elimination-2050 scenario, we forecast 735 million (675–808) and 141 million (131–154) cumulative YLLs would be avoided among males and females, respectively. Life expectancy in 2050 would increase to 77·1 years (95% UI 74·6–79·0) among males and 80·8 years (78·3–82·9) among females. Interpretation: Existing tobacco policies must be maintained if smoking prevalence is to continue to decline as forecast by the reference scenario. In addition, substantial smoking-attributable burden can be avoided by accelerating the pace of smoking elimination. Implementation of new tobacco control policies are crucial in avoiding additional smoking-attributable burden in the coming decades and to ensure that the gains won over the past three decades are not lost

The Neuronal K+CL− Co-Transporter 2 (Slc12a5) Modulates Insulin Secretion

Intracellular chloride concentration ([Cl−]i) in pancreatic β-cells is kept above electrochemical equilibrium due to the predominant functional presence of Cl− loaders such as the Na+K+2Cl− co-transporter 1 (Slc12a2) over Cl−extruders of unidentified nature. Using molecular cloning, RT-PCR, Western blotting, immunolocalization and in vitro functional assays, we establish that the “neuron-specific” K+Cl− co-transporter 2 (KCC2, Slc12a5) is expressed in several endocrine cells of the pancreatic islet, including glucagon secreting α-cells, but particularly in insulin-secreting β-cells, where we provide evidence for its role in the insulin secretory response. Three KCC2 splice variants were identified: the formerly described KCC2a and KCC2b along with a novel one lacking exon 25 (KCC2a-S25). This new variant is undetectable in brain or spinal cord, the only and most abundant known sources of KCC2. Inhibition of KCC2 activity in clonal MIN6 β-cells increases basal and glucose-stimulated insulin secretion and Ca2+ uptake in the presence of glibenclamide, an inhibitor of the ATP-dependent potassium (KATP)-channels, thus suggesting a possible mechanism underlying KCC2-dependent insulin release. We propose that the long-time considered “neuron-specific” KCC2 co-transporter is expressed in pancreatic islet β-cells where it modulates Ca2+-dependent insulin secretion

The Neuronal K+CL− Co-Transporter 2 (Slc12a5) Modulates Insulin Secretion

Intracellular chloride concentration ([Cl−]i) in pancreatic β-cells is kept above electrochemical equilibrium due to the predominant functional presence of Cl− loaders such as the Na+K+2Cl− co-transporter 1 (Slc12a2) over Cl−extruders of unidentified nature. Using molecular cloning, RT-PCR, Western blotting, immunolocalization and in vitro functional assays, we establish that the “neuron-specific” K+Cl− co-transporter 2 (KCC2, Slc12a5) is expressed in several endocrine cells of the pancreatic islet, including glucagon secreting α-cells, but particularly in insulin-secreting β-cells, where we provide evidence for its role in the insulin secretory response. Three KCC2 splice variants were identified: the formerly described KCC2a and KCC2b along with a novel one lacking exon 25 (KCC2a-S25). This new variant is undetectable in brain or spinal cord, the only and most abundant known sources of KCC2. Inhibition of KCC2 activity in clonal MIN6 β-cells increases basal and glucose-stimulated insulin secretion and Ca2+ uptake in the presence of glibenclamide, an inhibitor of the ATP-dependent potassium (KATP)-channels, thus suggesting a possible mechanism underlying KCC2-dependent insulin release. We propose that the long-time considered “neuron-specific” KCC2 co-transporter is expressed in pancreatic islet β-cells where it modulates Ca2+-dependent insulin secretion

Heterogeneous expression of CFTR in insulin-secreting β-cells of the normal human islet.

Cystic fibrosis (CF) is due to mutations in the CF-transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) and CF-related diabetes (CFRD) is its most common co-morbidity, affecting ~50% of all CF patients, significantly influencing pulmonary function and longevity. Yet, the complex pathogenesis of CFRD remains unclear. Two non-mutually exclusive underlying mechanisms have been proposed in CFRD: i) damage of the endocrine cells secondary to the severe exocrine pancreatic pathology and ii) intrinsic β-cell impairment of the secretory response in combination with other factors. The later has proven difficult to determine due to low expression of CFTR in β-cells, which results in the general perception that this Cl-channel does not participate in the modulation of insulin secretion or the development of CFRD. The objective of the present work is to demonstrate CFTR expression at the molecular and functional levels in insulin-secreting β-cells in normal human islets, where it seems to play a role. Towards this end, we have used immunofluorescence confocal and immunofluorescence microscopy, immunohistochemistry, RT-qPCR, Western blotting, pharmacology, electrophysiology and insulin secretory studies in normal human, rat and mouse islets. Our results demonstrate heterogeneous CFTR expression in human, mouse and rat β-cells and provide evidence that pharmacological inhibition of CFTR influences basal and stimulated insulin secretion in normal mouse islets but not in islets lacking this channel, despite being detected by electrophysiological means in ~30% of β-cells. Therefore, our results demonstrate a potential role for CFTR in the pancreatic β-cell secretory response suggesting that intrinsic β-cell dysfunction may also participate in the pathogenesis of CFRD

Factors influencing delivery-related complications and their consequences in hard-to-reach areas of Bangladesh

Background and objectives: Bangladesh's high maternal mortality ratio is exacerbated by delivery-related complications, particularly in hard-to-reach (HtR) areas with limited healthcare access. Despite this, few studies have explored delivery-related complications and factors contributing to these complications among the disadvantaged population. This study aimed to investigate the factors contributing to delivery-related complications and their consequences among the mothers residing in the HtR areas of Bangladesh. Methods: Data were collected using a cross-sectional study design from 13 HtR sub-districts of Bangladesh between September 2019 and October 2019. Data from 1,290 recently delivered mothers were analysed. Results: Around 32% (95% CI: 29.7-34.8) of the mothers reported at least one delivery-related complication. Prolonged labour pain (21%) was the highest reported complication during the delivery, followed by obstructive labour (20%), fever (14%), severe headache (14%). Mothers with higher education, a higher number of antenatal care (ANC) visits, complications during ANC, employed, and first-time mothers had higher odds of reporting delivery-related complications. More than one-half (51%) of these mothers had normal vaginal delivery. Nearly one-fifth (20%) of mothers who reported delivery-related complications were delivered by unskilled health workers at homes. On the other hand, about one-fifth (19%) of the mothers without any complications during delivery had a caesarean delivery. Nine out of ten of these caesarean deliveries were done at the private facilities. Conclusion: Delivery-related complications are significantly related to a woman's reproductive history and other background characteristics. Unnecessary caesarean delivery is prominent at private facilities

Mutation Spectrum in TPO Gene of Bangladeshi Patients with Thyroid Dyshormonogenesis and Analysis of the Effects of Different Mutations on the Structural Features and Functions of TPO Protein through In Silico Approach

Although thyroid dyshormonogenesis (TDH) accounts for 10-20% of congenital hypothyroidism (CH), the molecular etiology of TDH is unknown in Bangladesh. Thyroid peroxidase (TPO) is most frequently associated with TDH and the present study investigated the spectrum of TPO mutations in Bangladeshi patients and analyzed the effects of mutations on TPO protein structure through in silico approach. Sequencing-based analysis of TPO gene revealed four mutations in 36 diagnosed patients with TDH including three nonsynonymous mutations, namely, p.Ala373Ser, p.Ser398Thr, and p.Thr725Pro, and one synonymous mutation p.Pro715Pro. Homology modelling-based analysis of predicted structures of MPO-like domain (TPO142-738) and the full-length TPO protein (TPO1-933) revealed differences between mutant and wild type structures. Molecular docking studies were performed between predicted structures and heme. TPO1-933 predicted structure showed more reliable results in terms of interactions with the heme prosthetic group as the binding energies were -11.5 kcal/mol, -3.2 kcal/mol, -11.5 kcal/mol, and -7.9 kcal/mol for WT, p.Ala373Ser, p.Ser398Thr, and p.Thr725Pro, respectively, implying that p.Ala373Ser and p.Thr725Pro mutations were more damaging than p.Ser398Thr. However, for the TPO142-738 predicted structures, the binding energies were -11.9 kcal/mol, -10.8 kcal/mol, -2.5 kcal/mol, and -5.3 kcal/mol for the wild type protein, mutant proteins with p.Ala373Ser, p.Ser398Thr, and p.Thr725Pro substitutions, respectively. However, when the interactions between the crucial residues including residues His239, Arg396, Glu399, and His494 of TPO protein and heme were taken into consideration using both TPO1-933 and TPO142-738 predicted structures, it appeared that p.Ala373Ser and p.Thr725Pro could affect the interactions more severely than the p.Ser398Thr. Validation of the molecular docking results was performed by computer simulation in terms of quantum mechanics/molecular mechanics (QM/MM) and molecular dynamics (MD) simulation. In conclusion, the substitutions mutations, namely, p.Ala373Ser, p.Ser398Thr, and p.Thr725Pro, had been involved in Bangladeshi patients with TDH and molecular docking-based study revealed that these mutations had damaging effect on the TPO protein activity

Age-Specific Cut-off Values of Amino Acids and Acylcarnitines for Diagnosis of Inborn Errors of Metabolism Using Liquid Chromatography Tandem Mass Spectrometry

Liquid Chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) is used for the diagnosis of more than 30 inborn errors of metabolisms (IEMs). Accurate and reliable diagnosis of IEMs by quantifying amino acids (AAs) and acylcarnitines (ACs) using LC-MS/MS systems depend on the establishment of age-specific cut-offs of the analytes. This study aimed to (1) determine the age-specific cut-off values of AAs and ACs in Bangladesh and (2) validate the LC-MS/MS method for diagnosis of the patients with IEMs. A total of 570 enrolled healthy participants were divided into 3 age groups, namely, (1) newborns (1-7 days), (2) 8 days–7 years, and (3) 8–17 years, to establish the age-specific cut-offs for AAs and ACs. Also, 273 suspected patients with IEMs were enrolled to evaluate the reliability of the established cut-off values. Quantitation of AAs and ACs was performed on an automated LC-MS/MS system using dried blood spot (DBS) cards. Then the specimens of the enrolled clinically suspected patients were analyzed by the established method. Nine patients came out as screening positive for different IEMs, including two borderline positive cases of medium-chain acyl-CoA dehydrogenase deficiency (MCAD). A second-tier test for confirmation of the screening positive cases was conducted by urinary metabolic profiling using gas chromatography- mass spectrometry (GC-MS). Out of 9 cases that came out as screening positive by LC-MS/MS, seven cases were confirmed by urinary GC-MS analysis including 3 cases with phenylketonuria, 1 with citrullinemia type II, 1 with methylmalonic acidemia, 1 with isovaleric acidemia and 1 with carnitine uptake defect. Two borderline positive cases with MCAD were found negative by urinary GC-MS analysis. In conclusion, along with establishment of a validated LC-MS/MS method for quantitation of AAs and ACs from the DBS cards, the study also demonstrates the presence of predominantly available IEMs in Bangladesh

High resolution melting curve analysis targeting the HBB gene mutational hot-spot offers a reliable screening approach for all common as well as most of the rare beta-globin gene mutations in Bangladesh

Abstract Background Bangladesh lies in the global thalassemia belt, which has a defined mutational hot-spot in the beta-globin gene. The high carrier frequencies of beta-thalassemia trait and hemoglobin E-trait in Bangladesh necessitate a reliable DNA-based carrier screening approach that could supplement the use of hematological and electrophoretic indices to overcome the barriers of carrier screening. With this view in mind, the study aimed to establish a high resolution melting (HRM) curve-based rapid and reliable mutation screening method targeting the mutational hot-spot of South Asian and Southeast Asian countries that encompasses exon-1 (c.1 - c.92), intron-1 (c.92 + 1 - c.92 + 130) and a portion of exon-2 (c.93 - c.217) of the HBB gene which harbors more than 95% of mutant alleles responsible for beta-thalassemia in Bangladesh. Results Our HRM approach could successfully differentiate ten beta-globin gene mutations, namely c.79G > A, c.92 + 5G > C, c.126_129delCTTT, c.27_28insG, c.46delT, c.47G > A, c.92G > C, c.92 + 130G > C, c.126delC and c.135delC in heterozygous states from the wild type alleles, implying the significance of the approach for carrier screening as the first three of these mutations account for ~85% of total mutant alleles in Bangladesh. Moreover, different combinations of compound heterozygous mutations were found to generate melt curves that were distinct from the wild type alleles and from one another. Based on the findings, sixteen reference samples were run in parallel to 41 unknown specimens to perform direct genotyping of the beta-thalassemia specimens using HRM. The HRM-based genotyping of the unknown specimens showed 100% consistency with the sequencing result. Conclusions Targeting the mutational hot-spot, the HRM approach could be successfully applied for screening of beta-thalassemia carriers in Bangladesh as well as in other countries of South Asia and Southeast Asia. The approach could be a useful supplement of hematological and electrophortic indices in order to avoid false positive and false negative results

Sequenced samples that were used for the HRM method setup.

Sequenced samples that were used for the HRM method setup.</p