Application of sales forecasting for new products

Premi al millor Projecte de Fi de Carrera presentat durant l'any 2011 en l'àmbit d'Organització Industrial i Gestió que atorga ACCENTUREEl present projecte pretén millorar la previsió de vendes per a productes d’alt consum nous al mercat, posant especial atenció en crear un sistema assequible per a petites i mitjanes empreses i adaptat a qualsevol mida de mercat. Les solucions desenvolupades fins al moment no aconsegueixen reduir l’alarmant nombre de productes que surten al mercat i fracassen en pocs mesos, degut en part a una mala previsió de les vendes. Actualment els empresaris tenen al seu abast programaris molt potents però no desenvolupats per mercats locals i amb un preu inaccessible; o bé programes que no han estat desenvolupats per productes nous i, per tant, que necessiten molts períodes de dades per produir resultats acurats. Desprès d’una primera fase d’investigació dels diferents models matemàtics existents i de les fases de desenvolupament dels productes, el projecte tria cinc models de causaefecte que es basen en, com a mínim, tres períodes de dades per preveure’n les futures. En la segona fase s’analitza cada detall de cadascun dels models triats i com n’afecta un canvi en cada una de les variables. També s’estudia el tipus de dada que és necessària pel correcte funcionament dels models i el tractament necessari abans de la seva utilització. El fet de disposar de molts pocs períodes de dades dificulta la percepció de l’estacionalitat o possibles anomalies, que en el cas de la previsió de vendes de productes madurs és un procediment senzill i rutinari. A continuació, es proposa una metodologia a seguir per tal de preveure les vendes. Es posa especial atenció en crear un procediment senzill i fàcil de reproduir, de manera que es pugui dur a terme amb un full de càlcul de Microsoft Excel, que és l’eina més utilitzada per les petites i mitjanes empreses. La part positiva de no crear un software específic és la capacitat de l’usuari de modificar el resultat segons el seu propi criteri expert i alhora d’aprendre a preveure els canvis que ocasionen en el resultat una variació en les dades d’entrada. La metodologia es prova amb cinc productes reals dels quals es posseeix els tres primers períodes de dades, així com informació sobre publicitat o esdeveniments especials que puguin influir en les vendes. Es comprova que l’efecte de les accions publicitàries en les vendes dels primers mesos és molt important, sent la previsió de vendes d’un producte del qual no es posseeix aquesta informació la menys acurada. Finalment, es proposa un exemple a seguir per tal de crear un programa informàtic senzill que pugui automatitzar el procés. L’automatització permetria aplicar la metodologia a tots aquells usuaris no experts en l’ús de l’Excel.Award-winnin

A review of forecasting models for new products

Purpose. The main objective of this article is to present an up-to-date review of new product forecasting techniques. Design/methodology/approach: A systematic review of forecasting journals was carried out using the ISI-Web of Knowledge database. Several articles were retrieved and examined, and forecasting techniques relevant to this study were selected and assessed. Findings: The strengths, weaknesses and applications of the main forecasting models are discussed to examine trends and set future challenges. Research limitations/implications: A theoretical reference framework for forecasting techniques classified into judgmental, consumer/market research, cause-effect and artificial intelligence is proposed. Future research can assess these models qualitatively. Practical implications: Companies are currently motivated to launch new products and thus attract new customers to expand their market share. In order to reduce uncertainty and risk, many companies go to extra lengths to forecast sales accurately using several techniques. Originality/value: This article outlines new lines of research on the improvement of new product performance which will aid managers in decision making and allow companies to sustain their competitive advantages in this challenging world.Peer Reviewe

Terpenes in radical polymerisation: polymer synthesis and applications

This thesis describes novel research into the use of terpenes as monomers and controlling agents in radical polymerisation. The use of terpenes as controlling agents represents an interesting alternative to the use of synthetic, toxic and expensive additives that are most commonly used in radical polymerisation. However, there is little information in the literature about the mechanism they undergo. In this work, the first systematic study regarding the use of terpinolene and γ-terpinene as controlling agents in radical polymerisation was reported (Chapter 2). The effectiveness of these terpenes at preventing the Trommsdorff effect and regulating molecular weight and dispersity in the polymerisation of methyl methacrylate, methyl acrylate, styrene and vinyl acetate was carefully studied and their mechanism was elucidated. The development of functional renewable polymers has been gathering growing interest among the scientific community for the last decade. Terpenes are one of the most attractive alternatives to petrol-derived monomers because of their natural abundance and the presence of unsaturated moieties in their chemical structure, which offers, in theory, the possibility for polymerisation. However, a limited range of terpene-based polymers have been synthesised to date. In order to create readily polymerisable monomers, the introduction of (meth)acrylate functionalities into a range of natural terpenes was explored (Chapter 3). Initially, a two-step methodology, consisting of hydrolysis and subsequent esterification, was explored. As an alternative to the two-step protocol, allylic C-H activation catalysed by Pd(OAc)2 was also investigated as a more sustainable route to introduce a (meth)acrylate functionality into β-pinene. These synthetic protocols led to a wide range of new terpene-based monomers. In the subsequent chapter, the polymerisability of the new terpene-based monomers was evaluated (Chapter 4). The new (meth)acrylate monomers were polymerised for the first time using free radical polymerisation (FRP) techniques. A variety of new polymers showing diverse structures, from linear through to branched and crosslinked, were obtained. The polymers also exhibited a wide scope of glass transition temperatures, which allows for the tailoring of mechanical properties by changing the starting terpene. A study of the reactivity of the different functionalities in bifunctional monomers was conducted by monitoring the polymerisation via FTIR. Finally, the evaluation of carvone-based polymers as cross-linkable polymers for coating applications was conducted (Chapter 5). The carvone-based polymers were successfully coated by solvent casting or powder coating and then cured via thiol-ene chemistry. The properties of the films were carefully studied and compared to commercial acrylic coatings

Negative screening of Fabry disease in patients with conduction disorders requiring a pacemaker.

Identification of Fabry disease (FD) in cardiac patients has been restricted so far to patients with left ventricular hypertrophy. Conduction problems are frequent in FD and could precede other manifestations, offering a possible earlier diagnosis. We studied the prevalence of FD in 188 patients < 70 years with conduction problems requiring pacemaker implantation. Although classical manifestations of FD were not rare, no patient with FD was identified. Screening efforts should not be conducted in this population.post-print523 K

Climate change and seasonal dynamics of bottom-trawl fisheries landings in the western Mediterranean

Comunicación presentada al Forum on Fisheries Science in the Mediterranean and The Black Sea (FishForum 2024), 19-23 Febrero 2024, celebrado en Antalya (Turquía)The Mediterranean Sea stands out as one of the most vulnerable ecosystems on global scale, facing an array of cumulative impacts, including high climate risks. Climate velocity drives species shifts and redistributions, which has led to changes at different ecosystem levels. However, it is necessary to examine how commercial marine species respond at regional and seasonal levels, which is often the optimal management scale. Here, we analyzed time series data on bottom-trawl fisheries landings (2007 to 2021) and explored seasonal variations using climate velocity and relative climate exposure as metrics of potential range shifts (1987 to 2021) in the Western Mediterranean Sea. Additionally, we examined the impact of climate connectivity, using climate velocity trajectories and temperature preferences, along with life-history traits of commercial species. The outcomes of our study showed fluctuations in climate velocity across diverse spatial and seasonal scales. We identified a relationship between the abundance of most captured commercial species and seasonal climate velocity. These variations were also influenced by the temperature preferences and the life-history traits of these species and, play a key role in the climate connectivity between the network of Marine Protected Areas. We conclude that climate velocity metrics are valuable to comprehend how economically important marine species respond in the Western Mediterranean Sea at regional and seasonal levels. Using this knowledge, we can develop climate-smart management strategies, contributing to biodiversity conservation and the preservation of crucial ecosystem services, while mitigating the risks associated with future maladaptation

Ciprofloxacin carrier systems based on hectorite/halloysite hybrid hydrogels for potential wound healing applications

The design of multifunctional nanomaterials which can help the healing processes of skin, preventing the bacterial infections, is crucial for the development of suitable therapy for the treatment of chronic lesions. The use of clay minerals in wound healing applications is well documented since the prehistoric period and offers several advantages due to their intrinsic properties. Herein, we report the development of ciprofloxacin carrier systems based on hectorite/halloysite (Ht/Hal) hybrid hydrogels for potential wound healing applications. To achieve this objective firstly the ciprofloxacin molecules were loaded onto Hal by a supramolecular and covalent approach. The so obtained fillers were thoroughly investigated by several techniques and at molecular level by means of quantum mechanics calculations along with empirical interatomic potentials. Afterwards the modified Hal were used as filler for Ht hydrogels. The introduction of modified Hal, in hectorite hydrogel, helps the gel formation with an improvement of the rheological properties. The in vitro kinetic release from both the fillers and from the hybrid hydrogels was studied both at skin's pH (5.4) and under neutral conditions (pH 7.4); in addition, the factors controlling the ciprofloxacin release process were determined and discussed. Finally, the in vitro biocompatibility of the Hal fillers was evaluated by means of cytotoxic assays and laser scanning confocal microscopy on normal human dermal fibroblasts.The work was carried out in the frame of the PON “AIM: Attrazione e Mobilità Internazionale” No. 1808223-1 project. Authors are thankful to H.A. Duarte for providing atomic coordinates of halloysite, to the CSIC Computational Center and the University of Granada Computation Center for computation facilities, and the Andalusian project grants RNM-1897 and P18-RT-3786 , and the Spanish MINECO projects , PCIN-2017-098 , FIS2016-77692-C2-2-P and CGL2016-80833-R , for the financial support of this research

Thixotropic Hydrogels Based on Laponite® and Cucurbituril for Delivery of Lipophilic Drug Molecules

Nowadays the use of hydrogels for biomedical purposes is increasing because of their interesting features that allow the development of targeted drug delivery systems. Herein, hydrogel based on Laponite® (Lap) clay mineral as gelator and cucurbit[6]uril (CB[6]) molecules were synthetized for the delivery of flufenamic acid (FFA) for potential topical application. Firstly, the interaction between CB[6] and FFA was assessed by UV-vis spectroscopic measurements and molecular modeling calculations. Then, the obtained complex was used as filler for Lap hydrogel (Lap/CB[6]/FFA). The properties of the hydrogel in terms of viscosity and, self-repair abilities were investigated; its morphology was imaged by scanning electron and polarized optical microscopies. Furthermore, the changes in the hydrodynamic radii and in the colloidal stability of CB[6]/Lap mixture were investigated in terms of translational diffusion from dynamic light scattering and ζ-potential measurements. Finally, the kinetic in vitro release of FFA, from Lap/CB[6]/FFA hydrogel, was studied in a medium mimicking the pH of skin and the obtained results were discussed both by an experimental point of view and by molecular modeling calculations

Hectorite/Phenanthroline-Based Nanomaterial as Fluorescent Sensor for Zn Ion Detection: A Theoretical and Experimental Study

The development of fluorescent materials that can act as sensors for the determination of metal ions in biological fluids is important since they show, among others, high sensitivity and specificity. However, most of the molecules that are used for these purposes possess a very low solubility in aqueous media, and, thus, it is necessary to adopt some derivation strategies. Clay minerals, for example, hectorite, as natural materials, are biocompatible and available in large amounts at a very low cost that have been extensively used as carrier systems for the delivery of different hydrophobic species. In the present work, we report the synthesis and characterization of a hectorite/phenanthroline nanomaterial as a potential fluorescent sensor for Zn ion detection in water. The interaction of phenanthroline with the Ht interlaminar space was thoroughly investigated, via both theoretical and experimental studies (i.e., thermogravimetry, FT-IR, UV-vis and fluorescence spectroscopies and XRD measurements), while its morphology was imaged by scanning electron microscopy. Afterwards, the possibility to use it as sensor for the detection of Zn2+ ions, in comparison to other metal ions, was investigated through fluorescent measurements, and the stability of the solid Ht/Phe/Zn complex was assessed by different experimental and theoretical measurements