Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

BMPs and Chordin regulate patterning of the directive axis in a sea anemone

The TGF-β molecules Dpp/BMP2/4/7 and their antagonist Sog/Chd play a conserved role in establishing the dorso-ventral (DV) axis in bilaterians. Homologues of BMPs and the antagonist, Chordin, have been isolated from Cnidaria and show a striking asymmetric expression pattern with respect to the primary oral-aboral (OA) axis. We used Morpholino knockdowns of Nematostella dpp (bmp2/4), bmp5-8, chordin, and tolloid to investigate their function during early development of the sea anemone Nematostella vectensis. Molecular analysis of the BMP Morpholino phenotypes revealed an upregulated and radialized expression of bmps and chordin in ectoderm and endoderm indicating a negative feedback loop. Our data further suggest that BMP signaling is required for symmetry breaking of bmp and chordin expression during gastrulation. While bmps and chordin marker genes of the ectodermal OA axis extended aborally, other ectodermal markers of the OA axis were not significantly affected. By contrast, expression of other endodermal marker genes marking both the OA and the directive axis were abolished. Our data suggest that the logic of BMP2/4 signaling and the BMP antagonist, Chordin, differs significantly between Cnidaria and Bilateria, yet the double negative feedback loop detected in Nematostella bears systemic similarities with part of the regulatory network of the DV axis patterning system in amphibians

Property Assessment

This dataset details the various cross-sectional and longitudinal data files of the City of Boston's property assessment data. These data were curated and added to by the Boston Area Research Initiative. The corresponding documentation details information about the various attributes and measures within these data files

Geographical Infrastructure for the City of Boston v. 2018

The Boston Area Research Initiative’s Geographical Infrastructure for the City of Boston is a database that organizes and links the places and regions of Boston, MA across various geographic levels—including land parcels, streets, census geographies, and other administrative regions. The levels are organized in a hierarchy, with the items in each level nested in the higher-level regions that contain it (e.g., land parcels in census geographies). This is coordinated via variables that act as unique identifiers at each level. As a composite, the database is intended to facilitate aggregate calculations across levels of the hierarchy and analyses of data from different sources that reference the same geographical units. In particular, the database makes it possible to connect data sets generated by the City of Boston with census geographies and data

Comparative molecular analysis of the Drosophila olfactory subsystems identifies a support cell-expressed Osiris protein required for pheromone sensitivity

BACKGROUND: The nose of most animals comprises multiple sensory subsystems, which are defined by the expression of different olfactory receptor families. Drosophila melanogaster antennae contain two morphologically and functionally distinct subsystems that express odorant receptors (Ors) or ionotropic receptors (Irs). Although these receptors have been thoroughly characterized in this species, the subsystem-specific expression and roles of other genes are much less well-understood. RESULTS: Here we generate subsystem-specific transcriptomic datasets to identify hundreds of genes, encoding diverse protein classes, that are selectively enriched in either Or or Ir subsystems. Using single-cell antennal transcriptomic data and RNA in situ hybridization, we find that most neuronal genes—other than sensory receptor genes—are broadly expressed within the subsystems. By contrast, we identify many non-neuronal genes that exhibit highly selective expression, revealing substantial molecular heterogeneity in the non-neuronal cellular components of the olfactory subsystems. We characterize one Or subsystem-specific non-neuronal molecule, Osiris 8 (Osi8), a conserved member of a large, insect-specific family of transmembrane proteins. Osi8 is expressed in the membranes of tormogen support cells of pheromone-sensing trichoid sensilla. Loss of Osi8 does not have obvious impact on trichoid sensillar development or basal neuronal activity, but abolishes high sensitivity responses to pheromone ligands. CONCLUSIONS: This work identifies a new protein required for insect pheromone detection, emphasizes the importance of support cells in neuronal sensory functions, and provides a resource for future characterization of other olfactory subsystem-specific genes. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12915-022-01425-w

Asymmetric expression of the BMP antagonists chordin and gremlin in the sea anemone Nematostella vectensis: Implications for the evolution of axial patterning

The evolutionary origin of the anterior-posterior and the dorsoventral body axes of Bilateria is a long-standing question. It is unclear how the main body axis of Cnidaria, the sister group to the Bilateria, is related to the two body axes of Bilateria. The conserved antagonism between two secreted factors, BMP2/4 (Dpp in Drosophila) and its antagonist Chordin (Short gastrulation in Drosophila) is a crucial component in the establishment of the dorsoventral body axis of Bilateria and could therefore provide important insight into the evolutionary origin of bilaterian axes. Here, we cloned and characterized two BMP ligands, dpp and GDF5-like as well as two secreted antagonists, chordin and gremlin, from the basal cnidarian Nematostella vectensis. Injection experiments in zebrafish show that the ventralizing activity of NvDpp mRNA is counteracted by NvGremlin and NvChordin, suggesting that Gremlin and Chordin proteins can function as endogenous antagonists of NvDpp. Expression analysis during embryonic and larval development of Nematostella reveals asymmetric expression of all four genes along both the oral-aboral body axis and along an axis perpendicular to this one, the directive axis. Unexpectedly, NvDpp and NvChordin show complex and overlapping expression on the same side of the embryo, whereas NvGDF5-like and NvGremlin are both expressed on the opposite side. Yet, the two pairs of ligands and antagonists only partially overlap, suggesting complex gradients of BMP activity along the directive axis but also along the oral-aboral axis. We conclude that a molecular interaction between BMP-like molecules and their secreted antagonists was already employed in the common ancestor of Cnidaria and Bilateria to create axial asymmetries, but that there is no simple relationship between the oral-aboral body axis of Nematostella and one particular body axis of Bilateria