Weight gain after smoking cessation and risk of major chronic diseases and mortality

Importance: Smoking cessation is frequently followed by weight gain; however, whether weight gain after quitting reduces the health benefits of quitting is unclear. Objective: To examine the association between weight change after smoking cessation and the risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD), type 2 diabetes, cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and all-cause mortality. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study analyzed data from a nationally representative sample of Australian adults aged 18 years or older who were studied between 2006 and 2014. Smoking status and anthropometric measurements were self-reported annually. Cox proportional hazards regressions were used to determine the hazard ratios (HRs) for the association between changes in weight and body mass index (BMI) and the risk of CVD, type 2 diabetes, cancer, COPD, and mortality. Data were analyzed in January 2019. Exposures: Annual self-reported smoking status; years since quitting. Main Outcomes and Measures: Weight gain after quitting, incident CVD, type 2 diabetes, cancer, COPD, and all-cause mortality. Results: Of a total 16663 participants (8082 men and 8581 women; mean [SD] age, 43.7 [16.3] years), those who quit smoking had greater increases in weight (mean difference [MD], 3.14 kg; 95% CI, 1.39-4.87) and BMI (MD, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.21-1.44) than continuing smokers. Compared with continuing smokers, the HRs for death were 0.50 (95% CI, 0.36-0.68) among quitters who lost weight, 0.79 (95% CI, 0.51-0.98) among quitters without weight change, 0.33 (95% CI, 0.21-0.51) among quitters who gained 0.1 to 5.0 kg, 0.24 (95% CI, 0.11-0.53) among quitters who gained 5.1 to 10 kg, and 0.36 (95% CI, 0.16-0.82) among quitters who gained more than 10 kg. The HRs for death were 0.61 (95% CI, 0.45-0.83) among quitters who lost BMI, 0.86 (95% CI, 0.51-1.44) among quitters without change in BMI, 0.32 (95% CI, 0.21-0.50) among quitters who gained up to 2 in BMI, and 0.26 (95% CI, 0.16-0.45) among quitters who gained more than 2 in BMI. Conclusions and Relevance: This cohort study found that smoking cessation was accompanied by a substantial weight gain; however, this was not associated with an increased risk of chronic diseases or an attenuation of the mortality benefit of cessation

Lifestyle interventions for type 2 diabetes management among migrants and ethnic minorities living in industrialized countries : a systematic review and meta-analyses

The objective of this systematic review was to determine the effectiveness of lifestyle interventions to improve the management of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) among migrants and ethnic minorities. Major searched databases included MEDLINE (via PubMed), EMBASE (via Ovid) and CINAHL. The selection of studies and data extraction followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. In the meta-analysis, significant heterogeneity was detected among the studies (I 2 >50%), and hence a random effects model was used. Subgroup analyses were performed to compare the effect of lifestyle interventions according to intervention approaches (peer-led vs community health workers (CHWs)-led). A total of 17 studies were included in this review which used interventions delivered by CHWs or peer supporters or combination of both. The majority of the studies assessed effectiveness of key primary (hemoglobin (HbA1c), lipids, fasting plasma glucose) and secondary outcomes (weight, body mass index, blood pressure, physical activity, alcohol consumption, tobacco smoking, food habits and healthcare utilization). Meta-analyses showed lifestyle interventions were associated with a small but statistically significant reduction in HbA1c level (-0.18%; 95% CI-0.32% to-0.04%, p=0.031). In subgroup analyses, the peer-led interventions showed relatively better HbA1c improvement than CHW-led interventions, but the difference was not statistically significant (p=0.379). Seven studies presented intervention costs, which ranged from US$131 to US$461 per participant per year. We conclude that lifestyle interventions using either CHWs or peer supporters or a combination of both have shown modest effectiveness for T2DM management among migrants of different background and origin and ethnic minorities. The evidence base is promising in terms of developing culturally appropriate, clinically sound and cost-effective intervention approaches to respond to the growing and diverse migrants and ethnic minorities affected by diabetes worldwide

Association between depression, anxiety and weight change in young adults

Background To investigate whether there are bi-directional associations between anxiety and mood disorders and body mass index (BMI) in a cohort of young adults. Methods We analysed data from the 2004–2006 (baseline) and 2009–2011 (follow-up) waves of the Childhood Determinants of Adult Health study. Lifetime DSM-IV anxiety and mood disorders were retrospectively diagnosed with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview. Potential mediators were individually added to the base models to assess their potential role as a mediator of the associations. Results In males, presence of mood disorder history at baseline was positively associated with BMI gain (β = 0.77, 95% CI: 0.14–1.40), but baseline BMI was not associated with subsequent risk of mood disorder. Further adjustment for covariates, including dietary pattern, physical activity, and smoking reduced the coefficient (β) to 0.70 (95% CI: 0.01–1.39), suggesting that the increase in BMI was partly mediated by these factors. In females, presence of mood disorder history at baseline was not associated with subsequent weight gain, however, BMI at baseline was associated with higher risk of episode of mood disorder (RR per kg/m2: 1.04, 95% CI: 1.01–1.08), which was strengthened (RR per kg/m2 = 1.07, 95% CI: 1.00–1.15) after additional adjustment in the full model. There was no significant association between anxiety and change in BMI and vice-versa. Conclusion The results do not suggest bidirectional associations between anxiety and mood disorders, and change in BMI. Interventions promoting healthy lifestyle could contribute to reducing increase in BMI associated with mood disorder in males, and excess risk of mood disorder associated with BMI in females

Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specific causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65·3 years (UI 65·0-65·6) in 1990, to 71·5 years (UI 71·0-71·9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47·5 million (UI 46·8-48·2) to 54·9 million (UI 53·6-56·3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute differences between countries decreased but relative differences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative differences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10·7%, from 4·3 million deaths in 1990 to 4·8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specific mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Network analysis of dairy cattle movement and associations with bovine tuberculosis spread and control in emerging dairy belts of Ethiopia

Background: Dairy cattle movement could be a major risk factor for the spread of bovine tuberculosis (BTB) in emerging dairy belts of Ethiopia. Dairy cattle may be moved between farms over long distances, and hence understanding the route and frequency of the movements is essential to establish the pattern of spread of BTB between farms, which could ultimately help to inform policy makers to design cost effective control strategies. The objective of this study was, therefore, to investigate the network structure of dairy cattle movement and its influence on the transmission and prevalence of BTB in three emerging areas among the Ethiopian dairy belts, namely the cities of Hawassa, Gondar and Mekelle. Methods: A questionnaire survey was conducted in 278 farms to collect data on the pattern of dairy cattle movement for the last 5 years (September 2013 to August 2018). Visualization of the network structure and analysis of the relationship between the network patterns and the prevalence of BTB in these regions were made using social network analysis. Results: The cattle movement network structure display both scale free and small world properties implying local clustering with fewer farms being highly connected, at higher risk of infection, with the potential to act as super spreaders of BTB if infected. Farms having a history of cattle movements onto the herds were more likely to be affected by BTB (OR: 2.2) compared to farms not having a link history. Euclidean distance between farms and the batch size of animals moved on were positively correlated with prevalence of BTB. On the other hand, farms having one or more outgoing cattle showed a decrease on the likelihood of BTB infection (OR = 0.57) compared to farms which maintained their cattle. Conclusion: This study showed that the patterns of cattle movement and size of animal moved between farms contributed to the potential for BTB transmission. The few farms with the bulk of transmission potential could be efficiently targeted by control measures aimed at reducing the spread of BTB. The network structure described can also provide the starting point to build and estimate dynamic transmission models for BTB, and other infectious disease

SBML Level 3: an extensible format for the exchange and reuse of biological models

Systems biology has experienced dramatic growth in the number, size, and complexity of computational models. To reproduce simulation results and reuse models, researchers must exchange unambiguous model descriptions. We review the latest edition of the Systems Biology Markup Language (SBML), a format designed for this purpose. A community of modelers and software authors developed SBML Level 3 over the past decade. Its modular form consists of a core suited to representing reaction-based models and packages that extend the core with features suited to other model types including constraint-based models, reaction-diffusion models, logical network models, and rule-based models. The format leverages two decades of SBML and a rich software ecosystem that transformed how systems biologists build and interact with models. More recently, the rise of multiscale models of whole cells and organs, and new data sources such as single-cell measurements and live imaging, has precipitated new ways of integrating data with models. We provide our perspectives on the challenges presented by these developments and how SBML Level 3 provides the foundation needed to support this evolution

Epidemiology of Foot and Mouth Disease in Ethiopia : a Retrospective Analysis of District Level Outbreaks, 2007-2012

This study aimed at determining the incidence, distribution, risk factors, and causal serotypes of foot and mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks in Ethiopia based on 5 years of retrospective outbreak data (September 2007 until August 2012). District level outbreak data were collected from 115 randomly selected districts using a questionnaire administered to district animal health officers. The national incidence of FMD outbreaks during the study period was 1.45 outbreaks per five district years. Outbreaks were geographically widespread affecting all major regional states in the country and were more frequent in the central, southern, and southeastern parts of the country. Neither long-term nor seasonal trends were observed in the incidence of outbreaks. A mixed effects logistic regression analysis revealed that the type of production system (market oriented system versus subsistence systems), presence of a major livestock market and/or route, and adjacency to a national parks or wildlife sanctuary were found to be associated with increased risk of outbreaks in the districts. FMD virus serotypes O, A, SAT 2, and SAT 1 were identified as the causal serotypes of the outbreaks during the study period. Whereas O was the dominant serotype, SAT 2 was the serotype that showed increase in relative frequency of occurrence. The estimated incidence of outbreaks is useful in assessing the economic impacts of the disease, and the identified risk factors provide important knowledge to target a progressive FMD control policy for Ethiopia