Testing for Network and Spatial Autocorrelation

Testing for dependence has been a well-established component of spatial statistical analyses for decades. In particular, several popular test statistics have desirable properties for testing for the presence of spatial autocorrelation in continuous variables. In this paper we propose two contributions to the literature on tests for autocorrelation. First, we propose a new test for autocorrelation in categorical variables. While some methods currently exist for assessing spatial autocorrelation in categorical variables, the most popular method is unwieldy, somewhat ad hoc, and fails to provide grounds for a single omnibus test. Second, we discuss the importance of testing for autocorrelation in data sampled from the nodes of a network, motivated by social network applications. We demonstrate that our proposed statistic for categorical variables can both be used in the spatial and network setting

Chronic disease prevalence from Italian administrative databases in the VALORE project: a validation through comparison of population estimates with general practice databases and national survey

BACKGROUND: Administrative databases are widely available and have been extensively used to provide estimates of chronic disease prevalence for the purpose of surveillance of both geographical and temporal trends. There are, however, other sources of data available, such as medical records from primary care and national surveys. In this paper we compare disease prevalence estimates obtained from these three different data sources. METHODS: Data from general practitioners (GP) and administrative transactions for health services were collected from five Italian regions (Veneto, Emilia Romagna, Tuscany, Marche and Sicily) belonging to all the three macroareas of the country (North, Center, South). Crude prevalence estimates were calculated by data source and region for diabetes, ischaemic heart disease, heart failure and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). For diabetes and COPD, prevalence estimates were also obtained from a national health survey. When necessary, estimates were adjusted for completeness of data ascertainment. RESULTS: Crude prevalence estimates of diabetes in administrative databases (range: from 4.8% to 7.1%) were lower than corresponding GP (6.2%-8.5%) and survey-based estimates (5.1%-7.5%). Geographical trends were similar in the three sources and estimates based on treatment were the same, while estimates adjusted for completeness of ascertainment (6.1%-8.8%) were slightly higher. For ischaemic heart disease administrative and GP data sources were fairly consistent, with prevalence ranging from 3.7% to 4.7% and from 3.3% to 4.9%, respectively. In the case of heart failure administrative estimates were consistently higher than GPs' estimates in all five regions, the highest difference being 1.4% vs 1.1%. For COPD the estimates from administrative data, ranging from 3.1% to 5.2%, fell into the confidence interval of the Survey estimates in four regions, but failed to detect the higher prevalence in the most Southern region (4.0% in administrative data vs 6.8% in survey data). The prevalence estimates for COPD from GP data were consistently higher than the corresponding estimates from the other two sources. CONCLUSION: This study supports the use of data from Italian administrative databases to estimate geographic differences in population prevalence of ischaemic heart disease, treated diabetes, diabetes mellitus and heart failure. The algorithm for COPD used in this study requires further refinement

Trajectories of dementia-related cognitive decline in a large mental health records derived patient cohort

Background: Modeling trajectories of decline can help describe the variability in progression of cognitive impairment in dementia. Better characterisation of these trajectories has significant implications for understanding disease progression, trial design and care planning. Methods: Patients with at least three Mini-mental State Examination (MMSE) scores recorded in the South London and Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust Electronic Health Records, UK were selected (N = 3441) to form a retrospective cohort. Trajectories of cognitive decline were identified through latent class growth analysis of longitudinal MMSE scores. Demographics, Health of Nation Outcome Scales and medications were compared across trajectories identified. Results: Four of the six trajectories showed increased rate of decline with lower baseline MMSE. Two trajectories had similar initial MMSE scores but different rates of decline. In the faster declining trajectory of the two, a higher incidence of both behavioral problems and sertraline prescription were present. Conclusions: We find suggestive evidence for association of behavioral problems and sertraline prescription with rate of decline. Further work is needed to determine whether trajectories replicate in other datasets

Association between Urinary Excretion of Cortisol and Markers of Oxidatively Damaged DNA and RNA in Humans

Chronic psychological stress is associated with accelerated aging, but the underlying biological mechanisms are not known. Prolonged elevations of the stress hormone cortisol is suspected to play a critical role. Through its actions, cortisol may potentially induce oxidatively generated damage to cellular constituents such as DNA and RNA, a phenomenon which has been implicated in aging processes. We investigated the relationship between 24 h excretion of urinary cortisol and markers of oxidatively generated DNA and RNA damage, 8-oxo-7,8-dihydro-2′-deoxyguanosine and 8-oxo-7,8-dihydroguanosine, in a sample of 220 elderly men and women (age 65 – 83 years). We found a robust association between the excretion of cortisol and the oxidation markers (R2 = 0.15, P<0.001 for both markers). Individuals in the highest quartile of cortisol excretion had a 57% and 61% higher median excretion of the DNA and RNA oxidation marker, respectively, than individuals in the lowest quartile. The finding adds support to the hypothesis that cortisol-induced damage to DNA/RNA is an explanatory factor in the complex relation between stress, aging and disease

Assessing the presence of shared genetic architecture between Alzheimer's disease and major depressive disorder using genome-wide association data

We are grateful to the families and individuals who took part in the GS:SFHS and UKB studies, and to all those involved in participant recruitment, data collection, sample processing and QC, including academic researchers, clinical staff, laboratory technicians, clerical workers, IT staff, statisticians and research managers. This work is supported by the Wellcome Trust through a Strategic Award, reference 104036/Z/ 14/Z. We acknowledge with gratitude the financial support received from the Dr Mortimer and Theresa Sackler Foundation. This research has been conducted using the GS:SFHS and UK Biobank (project #4844) resources. GS:SFHS received core funding from the Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health Directorates [CZD/16/6] and the Scottish Funding Council [HR03006]. UKB was established using funding from the Wellcome Trust, Medical Research Council, the Scottish Government Department of Health, and the Northwest Regional Development Agency. DJP, IJD, TCR and AMM are members of the University of Edinburgh Centre for Cognitive Ageing and Cognitive Epidemiology, part of the cross council Lifelong Health and Wellbeing Initiative (MR/K026992/1). TCR is supported by Alzheimer's Scotland, through the Marjorie MacBeath bequest. Funding from the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council and Medical Research Council is gratefully acknowledged. We are grateful for the use of summary data from the International Genomics of Alzheimer's Project and the Major Depressive Disorder working group of the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Prophylactic Melatonin for Delirium in Intensive Care (Pro-MEDIC): Study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

Background: Delirium is an acute state of brain dysfunction characterised by fluctuating inattention and cognitive disturbances, usually due to illness. It occurs commonly in the intensive care unit (ICU), and it is associated with greater morbidity and mortality. It is likely that disturbances of sleep and of the day-night cycle play a significant role. Melatonin is a naturally occurring, safe and cheap hormone that can be administered to improve sleep. The main aim of this trial will be to determine whether prophylactic melatonin administered to critically ill adults, when compared with placebo, decreases the rate of delirium. Methods: This trial will be a multi-centre, randomised, placebo-controlled study conducted in closed ICUs in Australia. Our aim is to enrol 850 adult patients with an expected ICU length of stay (LOS) of 72h or more. Eligible patients for whom there is consent will be randomised to receive melatonin 4mg enterally or placebo in a 1:1 ratio according to a computer-generated randomisation list, stratified by site. The study drug will be indistinguishable from placebo. Patients, doctors, nurses, investigators and statisticians will be blinded. Melatonin or placebo will be administered once per day at 21:00 until ICU discharge or 14days after enrolment, whichever occurs first. Trained staff will assess patients twice daily to determine the presence or absence of delirium using the Confusion Assessment Method for the ICU score. Data will also be collected on demographics, the overall prevalence of delirium, duration and severity of delirium, sleep quality, participation in physiotherapy sessions, ICU and hospital LOS, morbidity and mortality, and healthcare costs. A subgroup of 100 patients will undergo polysomnographic testing to further evaluate the quality of sleep. Discussion: Delirium is a significant issue in ICU because of its frequency and associated poorer outcomes. This trial will be the largest evaluation of melatonin as a prophylactic agent to prevent delirium in the critically ill population. This study will also provide one of the largest series of polysomnographic testing done in ICU. Trial registration: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trial Registry (ANZCTR) number: ACTRN12616000436471. Registered on 20 December 2015