MODEL OPĆE RAVNOTEŽE REPUBLIKE HRVATSKE

Computable General Equlibrium models or CGE models, are one of the most useful models in a global development planning and macroeconomic analysis. CGE models are discovered in 1960., but there was no major development until 1978. These models have become a standard tool of empirical economic analysis. These models dominate in major part of applied econometric analysis, which is involved on problem solving in economic development and local economic policies. They are inevitable tools for analysis in international trade and government planning, changes in oil markets, and at the same time they are used in the analysis in tax reforms, welfare distributions, and even in the analysis of global warming. From that it concludes that uses of CGE models are very wide-spread. In the last few years, improvements in a specification of the model, availability of data and development in computer technology results in increased efficiency and reduced cost of analysis, which is based on CGE models. CGE models are most commonly used for analysis in countries that are in transition, but basic framework and specification of a model can be used from global to the local level.Computable General Equilibrium modeli ili CGE modeli, odnosno modeli opće ravnoteže su jedni od najkorištenijih modela u globalnom razvojnom planiranju i makroekonomskoj analizi. CGE modeli su otkriveni 1960. godine, međutim do njihovog većeg razvoja došlo je tek nakon 1978. godine. Ti modeli dominiraju u velikom dijelu primjenjivih ekonometrijskih analiza koje se bave problemima ekonomskog razvoja i lokalne ekonomske politike. Oni su neizbježni alati za analizu u međunarodnoj razmjeni i državnom planiranju, previranja na tržištu nafte, a ujedno su i korišteni u analizama porezne reforme, distribuciji blagostanja, te u zadnje vrijeme čak i utjecaja globalnog zagrijavanja. Iz toga vidimo da je vrlo raširena primjena CGE modela. U nekoliko posljednjih godina, napredak u specifikaciji modela, dostupnosti podataka i računalnoj tehnologiji je povećao isplativost i smanjio troškove analiza koje su se temeljile na CGE modelima, što je postavilo preduvjete za sve masovniju i rašireniju upotrebu samih modela. Iako su se CGE modeli najčešće upotrebljavali kod analiza za zemlje u razvoju, osnovni okvir i obilježja modela se mogu primjenjivati i korišteni su od svjetske razine do razine pojedine države, regije, sela ili čak pojedinog kućanstva

Forecasting Capacity of ARIMA Models; A Study on Croatian Industrial Production and its Sub-sectors

As one of the most important indicator for monitoring the production in industry as well as for directing investment decisions, industrial production plays important role within growth perspectives. Not only does the composition and/or fluctuation of the goods produced indicate the course of economic activity but it also reflects the changes in cyclical development of the economy thereby providing opportunity to macro-manage with early signs of (short-term) turning-points and (long-term) trend variations. In this paper, we compare univariate autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models of the Croatian industrial production and its subsectors in order to evaluate their forecasting features within short and long-term data evolution. The aim of this study is not to forecast industrial production but to analyze the out-of-sample predictive performance of ARIMA models on aggregated and disaggregated level inside different forecasting horizons. Our results suggest that ARIMA models do perform very well over the whole rage of the prediction horizons. It is mainly because univariate models often improve the predictive ability of their single component over the short horizons. In that manner ARIMA modelling could be used at least as a benchmark for more complex forecasting methods in predicting the movements of industrial production in Croatia

CAN ECONOMIC GROWTH LAST? SERIOUSLY.

This study analyses the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth rate in the period 1980 - 2002 in Sweden. A specific question that is addressed throught this study is what is the threshold energy consumption rate for Sweden. In addition, we try to answer a question, if there is statistical significant relationship between energy consumption and growth. In this paper, we use econometric methodology of the threshold estimation proposed by Hansen (2000). Hansen, develops new tests for threshold effects, estimates the threshold parameter, and constructs asymptotic confidence intervals for the threshold parameter. The primary idea behind the Hansen test for threshold estimation is that an exogenously given variable, called «threshold variable», is used to split the sample in two groups or regime, which can or cannot be a regressor. This theory derives the asymptotic distribution of the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimates of the threshold parameter

POVEZANOST IZMEĐU POTROŠNJE ENERGIJE I EKONOMSKOG RASTA ZA 30 ZEMALJA EUROPE – PANEL

In this paper, we study the link between energy consumption and economic growth for the thirty surveyed countries in Europe. Although there are many articles on this topic, the difference between them and this one is that we study countries that have not yet been studied together. The variable that is used for consumption is the final energy consumption, which includes the consumption of all forms of energy. In this paper, we use panel data analysis that studies the connections based on the methods of fixed effect. The data used were collected from European databases, Eurostat. Based on the results of the panel data regression, we can conclude that there is a strong correlation between the observed variables. What is needed for further research is to study the correlation between variables in the long and short-term. Equally interesting would be to study the way of integration with countries that have their power sources and those that do not.U ovom radu proučavamo povezanost između potrošnje energije i ekonomskog rasta za trideset promatranih zemalja u Europi. Iako postoji mnogo radova na ovu temu, razlika je između njih i ovoga rada u tome što se u ovom radu proučavaju zemlje koje do sada nisu zajedno proučavane. Varijabla koja se koristi za potrošnju energije je finalna potrošnja energije u koju ulaze potrošnje iz svih oblika energije. Koristi se panel analiza koja proučava povezanost na temelju metode fiksnog efekta. Podaci koji se koriste su prikupljeni iz Europske baze podataka Eurostat. Na temelju rezultata panel data regresije možemo zaključiti da postoji velika povezanost između promatranih varijabli. Ono što je potrebno u daljnjem istraživanju je proučiti povezanost varijabli i u dugom i kratkom roku. Isto tako potrebno bi bilo i proučiti da li postoji povezanost između promatranih varijabli za razvijene i nerazvijene zemlje odnosno da li među njima postoji razlika. Jednako zanimljivo bi bilo i proučiti način povezanosti kod zemalja koje imaju vlastite izvore energije i onih koje to nemaju

How important are general equilibrium models for small open economies – a case of Croatia

This paper develops a general equilibrium model for the Republic of Croatia to evaluate CGE model use in macroeconomic management and forecasting. Since Croatia is a small open country subject to large external shock and growth constraints efficient macroeconomic management framework is fundamental. The lack of data prevents to follow historic economic variables over a longer period of time, which is why CGE models look as possible solution. CGE models use calibration to solve the problem of missing most macroeconomic variables. After developing the model, we use it to run different scenarios for economic policies using a CGE model for Croatia. Results show that CGE model can be an important instrument for policy makers in running macroeconomic policies for small open countries

Usporedba rezultata testiranja Okunovog zakona za Hrvatsku i Slovačku

With the publication of the work “Potential GNP: its measurement and significance” (Okun, 1962), the concept of Okun’s law became an important part of global macroeconomic issues. The empirically determined connection between the national product and unemployment, which is manifested through Okun’s law, belongs to a fundamental part of economic empiricism. Gross domestic product and unemployment are among the main macroeconomic variables that reflect the movement of a country’s economy. The countries we observe in this paper went through a transition period in the 1990s, namely a period of great economic, institutional and economic changes. Precisely because of these changes, we are interested in comparing the Slovak and Croatian economies and testing Okun’s law. The aim of this paper is to show whether Okun’s law is valid for Croatia and Slovakia, or whether there is a correlation between the observed variables for these countries. The final purpose of the paper is to show whether there are similarities between the two observed economies when it comes to Okun’s law. We will show this similarity based on the analysis of data for the period from 2000 to 2018 using vector autoregression. The results of the research have been presented at the end of the paper and they are related to the implications of economic policy in the sphere of the labour market that directly affect economic growth and development.Objavom djela „Potential GNP: its measurement and significance“ (Okun, 1962) koncept Okunova zakona postaje važan dio globalne makroekonomske problematike. Empirijski utvrđena povezanost nacionalnog proizvoda i nezaposlenosti koja se očituje kroz Okunov zakon temeljnim dijelom pripada ekonomskoj empiriji. Bruto domaći proizvod i nezaposlenost su među glavnim makroekonomskim varijablama koje prikazuju kretanje gospodarstva jedne zemlje. Zemlje koje promatramo u ovome radu su 90-ih godina prošlog stoljeća prošle kroz tranzicijsko razdoblje odnosno razdoblje velikih gospodarskih, institucionalnih i gospodarskih promjena. Upravo zbog tih promjena zanimljiva nam je usporedba slovačkoga i hrvatskoga gospodarstva te testiranje Okunova zakona. Cilj ovoga rada je prikazati vrijedi li Okunov zakon za Hrvatsku i Slovačku, odnosno postoji li međusobna povezanost promatranih varijabli za te zemlje. Svrha rada je prikazati postoje li sličnosti između dva promatrana gospodarstva kada je u pitanju Okunov zakon. Ta sličnost će se prikazati na temelju analize podataka za razdoblje od 2000. do 2018. godine primjenom vektorske autoregresije. Na kraju rada prikazani su rezultati istraživanja te su povezani s implikacijama ekonomske politike u sferi tržišta rada koje izravno utječu na ekonomski rast i razvoj

FRAKCIONIRANO INTEGRIRANI MODEL ZA NIZ HRVATSKOG UKUPNOG OUTPUTA (BDP)

The general characteristics of output fluctuations in Croatia are examined under fractional integration framework. This paper evaluate the existence of long memory in real output decomposing fluctuations to transitory and permanent components. The results suggest that Croatian real output series behavior is best identified as ARFIMA model with order of integration 0.5 < d <1.5. This suggests that macroeconomic shocks in real output are highly persistent. Unlike other studies in Croatia that find real output to be I(0) or I(1) variable, test results from this study indicate that real output show the characteristics of long memory with mean reversion (fractional integration).Opće karakteristike fluktuacije outputa u Hrvatskoj proučene su u okviru frakcionarne integracije. Ovaj rad procjenjuje postojanje dugoročne memorije u fluktuacijama realne dekompozicije outputa prema tranzitornim i stalnim komponentama. Rezultati upućuju na to da je ponašanje niza hrvatskog realnog outputa najlakše identificirati s ARFIMA modelom s redom integracije 0.5< d <1.5. To ukazuje na činjenicu da su makroekonomski šokovi u realnom outputu visoko prisutni. Za razliku od drugih studija u Hrvatskoj po kojima je realni output I(0) ili I(1) varijabla, rezultati ispitivanja koji proizlaze iz ove studije ukazuju na to da realni output pokazuje karakteristike dugoročne memorije sa srednjom reverzijom (frakcionarnom integracijom)

Usporedba rezultata testiranja Okunovog zakona za Hrvatsku i Slovačku

With the publication of the work “Potential GNP: its measurement and significance” (Okun, 1962), the concept of Okun’s law became an important part of global macroeconomic issues. The empirically determined connection between the national product and unemployment, which is manifested through Okun’s law, belongs to a fundamental part of economic empiricism. Gross domestic product and unemployment are among the main macroeconomic variables that reflect the movement of a country’s economy. The countries we observe in this paper went through a transition period in the 1990s, namely a period of great economic, institutional and economic changes. Precisely because of these changes, we are interested in comparing the Slovak and Croatian economies and testing Okun’s law. The aim of this paper is to show whether Okun’s law is valid for Croatia and Slovakia, or whether there is a correlation between the observed variables for these countries. The final purpose of the paper is to show whether there are similarities between the two observed economies when it comes to Okun’s law. We will show this similarity based on the analysis of data for the period from 2000 to 2018 using vector autoregression. The results of the research have been presented at the end of the paper and they are related to the implications of economic policy in the sphere of the labour market that directly affect economic growth and development.Objavom djela „Potential GNP: its measurement and significance“ (Okun, 1962) koncept Okunova zakona postaje važan dio globalne makroekonomske problematike. Empirijski utvrđena povezanost nacionalnog proizvoda i nezaposlenosti koja se očituje kroz Okunov zakon temeljnim dijelom pripada ekonomskoj empiriji. Bruto domaći proizvod i nezaposlenost su među glavnim makroekonomskim varijablama koje prikazuju kretanje gospodarstva jedne zemlje. Zemlje koje promatramo u ovome radu su 90-ih godina prošlog stoljeća prošle kroz tranzicijsko razdoblje odnosno razdoblje velikih gospodarskih, institucionalnih i gospodarskih promjena. Upravo zbog tih promjena zanimljiva nam je usporedba slovačkoga i hrvatskoga gospodarstva te testiranje Okunova zakona. Cilj ovoga rada je prikazati vrijedi li Okunov zakon za Hrvatsku i Slovačku, odnosno postoji li međusobna povezanost promatranih varijabli za te zemlje. Svrha rada je prikazati postoje li sličnosti između dva promatrana gospodarstva kada je u pitanju Okunov zakon. Ta sličnost će se prikazati na temelju analize podataka za razdoblje od 2000. do 2018. godine primjenom vektorske autoregresije. Na kraju rada prikazani su rezultati istraživanja te su povezani s implikacijama ekonomske politike u sferi tržišta rada koje izravno utječu na ekonomski rast i razvoj

Green GDP: an analyses for developing and developed countries

In the push for more sustainable and greener progress, faster economic growth is no longer a priority. Is this true? There is a broad agreement that global society should strive for a higher standard of human wellbeing that is equitably shared and sustainable. Motivations for such plight are numerous; from economic (GDP measure is dangerously inadequate measure of quality of life since it counts what we produce and consume, but ignores social costs, environmental outcomes and income inequality), ecological (public is getting increasingly concerned with depleted natural resources and polluted environment, and other ecological issues), philosophical (human appetites and the population growth render non-market wellbeing measures to confront it with the society’s material standard of living), political (the concept of so-called green growth is generating diversity in positions, from enthusiastic to cautious, for it can be an opportunity, but also a risk that disfavours one country on international level) to even methodological questions (the lack of recognized methodological principles that would be the basis for reliable statistical data, thus an accurate accounting and valuation system of economic growth and development)

A new approach to measuring green gdp: a cross-country analysis

While the gross national/domestic product (GNP/GDP) index is a highly reliable indicator that reflects economic performance of a country, it still largely ignores the depreciation of assets, non-market economy and especially the damages to the environment caused by growth. Environmental sustainability of economic growth has come to be recognized as one of the most important pillars of sustainable growth and development. In order to tackle many challenges of the so-called green growth and sustainable development we try to build a new/alternative Green GDP indicator that should give us a clearer perspective of the consequences of economic progress by offering a new approach in quantifying the cost of ecological and environmental degradation. The indicator reviews economic growth through the environmental prism without speculating on how economic and social trends will evolve and how these developments will guide policy making in the years to come. We are well conscious that this indicator cannot ideally reflect the genuine status and improvement of national output, however, we see it as an attempt to encourage further discussions on the green growth in a diverse range of developing and developed countries. The results reveal a necessity for a new synergy between economic and environmental concepts, hence this study should be seen as an opportunity, not an obstacle for equitable and sustainable growth/development prospects