A Guide to Handling Missing Data in Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Conducted Within Randomised Controlled Trials

The authors would like to thank Professor Adrian Grant and the team at the University of Aberdeen (Professor Craig Ramsay, Janice Cruden, Charles Boachie, Professor Marion Campbell and Seonaidh Cotton) who kindly allowed the REFLUX dataset to be used for this work, and Eldon Spackman for kindly sharing the Stata (R) code for calculating the probability that an intervention is cost effective following MI. The authors are grateful to the reviewers for their comments, which greatly improved this paper. M. G. is recipient of a Medical Research Council Early Career Fellowship in Economics of Health (grant number: MR/K02177X/1). I. R. W. was supported by the Medical Research Council [Unit Programme U105260558]. No specific funding was obtained to produce this paper. The authors declare no conflicts of interest.Missing data are a frequent problem in cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) within a randomised controlled trial. Inappropriate methods to handle missing data can lead to misleading results and ultimately can affect the decision of whether an intervention is good value for money. This article provides practical guidance on how to handle missing data in within-trial CEAs following a principled approach: (i) the analysis should be based on a plausible assumption for the missing data mechanism, i.e. whether the probability that data are missing is independent of or dependent on the observed and/or unobserved values; (ii) the method chosen for the base-case should fit with the assumed mechanism; and (iii) sensitivity analysis should be conducted to explore to what extent the results change with the assumption made. This approach is implemented in three stages, which are described in detail: (1) descriptive analysis to inform the assumption on the missing data mechanism; (2) how to choose between alternative methods given their underlying assumptions; and (3) methods for sensitivity analysis. The case study illustrates how to apply this approach in practice, including software code. The article concludes with recommendations for practice and suggestions for future research.Medical Research Council Early Career Fellowship in Economics of Health MR/K02177X/1Medical Research Council UK (MRC) U105260558Medical Research Council UK (MRC) MC_U105260558 MR/K02177X/

Marimastat as maintenance therapy for patients with advanced gastric cancer: a randomised trial

This randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled study was designed to evaluate the ability of the orally administered matrix metalloproteinase inhibitor, marimastat, to prolong survival in patients with non-resectable gastric and gastro-oesophageal adenocarcinoma. Three hundred and sixty-nine patients with histological proof of adenocarcinoma, who had received no more than a single regimen of 5-fluorouracil-based chemotherapy, were randomised to receive either marimastat (10 mg b.d.) or placebo. Patients were treated for as long as was tolerable. The primary endpoint was overall survival with secondary endpoints of time to disease progression and quality of life. At the point of protocol-defined study completion (85% mortality in the placebo arm) there was a modest difference in survival in the intention-to-treat population in favour of marimastat (P=0.07 log-rank test, hazard ratio=1.23 (95% confidence interval 0.98–1.55)). This survival benefit was maintained over a further 2 years of follow-up (P=0.024, hazard ratio=1.27 (1.03–1.57)). The median survival was 138 days for placebo and 160 days for marimastat, with 2-year survival of 3% and 9% respectively. A significant survival benefit was identified at study completion in the pre-defined sub-group of 123 patients who had received prior chemotherapy (P=0.045, hazard ratio=1.53 (1.00–2.34)). This benefit increased with 2 years additional follow-up (P=0.006, hazard ratio=1.68 (1.16–2.44)), with 2-year survival of 5% and 18% respectively. Progression-free survival was also significantly longer for patients receiving marimastat compared to placebo (P=0.009, hazard ratio=1.32 (1.07–1.63)). Marimastat treatment was associated with the development of musculoskeletal pain and inflammation. Events of anaemia, abdominal pain, jaundice and weight loss were more common in the placebo arm. This is one of the first demonstrations of a therapeutic benefit for a matrix metalloproteinase inhibitor in cancer patients. The greatest benefit was observed in patients who had previously received chemotherapy. A further randomised study of marimastat in these patients is warranted

Smoking, cessation and expenditure in low income Chinese: cross sectional survey

BACKGROUND: This study was carried-out to explore smoking behaviour and smoking expenditure among low income workers in Eastern China to inform tobacco control policy. METHODS: A self-completion questionnaire was administered to 1958 urban workers, 1909 rural workers and 3248 migrant workers in Zhejiang Province, Eastern China in 2004. RESULTS: Overall 54% of the men and 1.8% of all women were current smokers (at least 1 cigarette per day). Smoking was least common in migrant men (51%), compared with 58% of urban workers and 64% rural inhabitants (P < 0.0001). Forty-nine percent of rural males smoke more than 10 cigarettes/day, and 22% over 20/day. The prevalence of smoking increased with age. Overall 9% of the males had successfully quit smoking. Reasons for quitting were to prevent future illness (58%), current illness (31%), family pressures (20%) and financial considerations (20%). Thirteen percent of current smokers had ever tried to quit (cessation for at least one week) while 22% intended to quit, with migrants most likely to intend to quit. Almost all (96%) were aware that smoking was harmful to health, though only 25% were aware of the dangers of passive smoking. A mean of 11% of personal monthly income is spent on smoking rising to a mean of 15.4% in rural smokers. This expenditure was found to have major opportunity costs, including in terms of healthcare access. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of smoking and successful quitting suggest that smoking prevalence in low income groups in Eastern China may have peaked. Tobacco control should focus on support for quitters, on workplace/public place smoking restrictions and should develop specific programmes in rural areas. Health education messages should emphasise the opportunity costs of smoking and the dangers of passive smoking

The prevalence of nutritional anemia in pregnancy in an east Anatolian province, Turkey

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Anemia is considered a severe public health problem by World Health Organization when anemia prevalence is equal to or greater than 40% in the population. The purpose of this study was to determine the anemia prevalence with the associated factors in pregnant women and to determine the serum iron, folate and B12 vitamin status in anaemic pregnants in Malatya province.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This is a cross-sectional survey. A multi-sage stratified probability-proportional-to-size cluster sampling methodology was used. A total of 823 pregnant women from sixty clusters were studied. Women were administered a questionnaire related with the subject and blood samples were drawn. Total blood count was performed within four hours and serum iron, folate and B12 vitamin were studied after storing sera at -20 C for six months.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Anemia prevalence was 27.1% (Hb < 11.0 gr/dl). Having four or more living children (OR = 2.2), being at the third trimester (OR = 2.3) and having a low family income (OR = 1.6) were determined as the independent predictors of anemia in pregnancy. Anemia was also associated with soil eating (PICA) in the univariate analysis (p < 0.05). Of anaemic women, 50.0% had a transferrin saturation less than 10% indicating iron deficiency, 34.5% were deficient in B12 vitamin and 71.7% were deficient in folate. Most of the anemias were normocytic-normochromic (56.5%) indicating mixed anemia.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>In Malatya, for pregnant women anemia was a moderate public health problem. Coexisting of iron, folate and B vitamin deficiencies was observed among anaemics. To continue anemia control strategies with reasonable care and diligence was recommended.</p

Effectiveness of dual-task functional power training for preventing falls in older people: Study protocol for a cluster randomised controlled trial

Background: Falls are a major public health concern with at least one third of people aged 65 years and over falling at least once per year, and half of these will fall repeatedly, which can lead to injury, pain, loss of function and independence, reduced quality of life and even death. Although the causes of falls are varied and complex, the age-related loss in muscle power has emerged as a useful predictor of disability and falls in older people. In this population, the requirements to produce explosive and rapid movements often occurs whilst simultaneously performing other attention-demanding cognitive or motor tasks, such as walking while talking or carrying an object. The primary aim of this study is to determine whether dual-task functional power training (DT-FPT) can reduce the rate of falls in community-dwelling older people. Methods/Design: The study design is an 18-month cluster randomised controlled trial in which 280 adults aged =65 years residing in retirement villages, who are at increased risk of falling, will be randomly allocated to: 1) an exercise programme involving DT-FPT, or 2) a usual care control group. The intervention is divided into 3 distinct phases: 6 months of supervised DT-FPT, a 6-month 'step down' maintenance programme, and a 6-month follow-up. The primary outcome will be the number of falls after 6, 12 and 18 months. Secondary outcomes will include: lower extremity muscle power and strength, grip strength, functional assessments of gait, reaction time and dynamic balance under single- and dual-task conditions, activities of daily living, quality of life, cognitive function and falls-related self-efficacy. We will also evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the programme for preventing falls. Discussion: The study offers a novel approach that may guide the development and implementation of future community-based falls prevention programmes that specifically focus on optimising muscle power and dual-task performance to reduce falls risk under 'real life' conditions in older adults. In addition, the 'step down' programme will provide new information about the efficacy of a less intensive maintenance programme for reducing the risk of falls over an extended period. Trial registration: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry: ACTRN12613001161718. Date registered 23 October 2013

Who is accessing public-sector anti-retroviral treatment in the Free State, South Africa? An exploratory study of the first three years of programme implementation

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Although South Africa has the largest public-sector anti-retroviral treatment (ART) programme in the world, anti-retroviral coverage in adults was only 40.2% in 2008. However, longitudinal studies of who is accessing the South African public-sector ART programme are scarce. This study therefore had one main research question: who is accessing public-sector ART in the Free State Province, South Africa? The study aimed to extend the current literature by investigating, in a quantitative manner and using a longitudinal study design, the participants enrolled in the public-sector ART programme in the period 2004-2006 in the Free State Province of South Africa.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Differences in the demographic (age, sex, population group and marital status) socio-economic (education, income, neo-material indicators), geographic (travel costs, relocation for ART), and medical characteristics (CD4, viral load, time since first diagnosis, treatment status) among 912 patients enrolled in the Free State public-sector ART programme between 2004 and 2006 were assessed with one-way analysis of variance, Bonferroni post-hoc analysis, and cross tabulations with the chi square test.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The patients accessing treatment tended to be female (71.1%) and unemployed (83.4%). However, although relatively poor, those most likely to access ART services were not the most impoverished patients. The proportion of female patients increased (<it>P </it>< 0.05) and their socio-economic situation improved between 2004 and 2006 (<it>P </it>< 0.05). The increasing mean transport cost (<it>P </it>< 0.05) to visit the facility is worrying, because this cost is an important barrier to ART uptake and adherence. Encouragingly, the study results revealed that the interval between the first HIV-positive diagnosis and ART initiation decreased steadily over time (<it>P </it>< 0.05). This was also reflected in the increasing baseline CD4 cell count at ART initiation (<it>P </it>< 0.05).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our analysis showed significant changes in the demographic, socio-economic, geographic, and medical characteristics of the patients during the first three years of the programme. Knowledge of the characteristics of these patients can assist policy makers in developing measures to retain them in care. The information reported here can also be usefully applied to target patient groups that are currently not reached in the implementation of the ART programme.</p

Pleistocene Climate, Phylogeny, and Climate Envelope Models: An Integrative Approach to Better Understand Species' Response to Climate Change

Mean annual temperature reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change increases at least 1.1°C to 6.4°C over the next 90 years. In context, a change in climate of 6°C is approximately the difference between the mean annual temperature of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and our current warm interglacial. Species have been responding to changing climate throughout Earth's history and their previous biological responses can inform our expectations for future climate change. Here we synthesize geological evidence in the form of stable oxygen isotopes, general circulation paleoclimate models, species' evolutionary relatedness, and species' geographic distributions. We use the stable oxygen isotope record to develop a series of temporally high-resolution paleoclimate reconstructions spanning the Middle Pleistocene to Recent, which we use to map ancestral climatic envelope reconstructions for North American rattlesnakes. A simple linear interpolation between current climate and a general circulation paleoclimate model of the LGM using stable oxygen isotope ratios provides good estimates of paleoclimate at other time periods. We use geologically informed rates of change derived from these reconstructions to predict magnitudes and rates of change in species' suitable habitat over the next century. Our approach to modeling the past suitable habitat of species is general and can be adopted by others. We use multiple lines of evidence of past climate (isotopes and climate models), phylogenetic topology (to correct the models for long-term changes in the suitable habitat of a species), and the fossil record, however sparse, to cross check the models. Our models indicate the annual rate of displacement in a clade of rattlesnakes over the next century will be 2 to 3 orders of magnitude greater (430-2,420 m/yr) than it has been on average for the past 320 ky (2.3 m/yr)

Francisella tularensis Uses Cholesterol and Clathrin-Based Endocytic Mechanisms to Invade Hepatocytes

Francisella tularensis are highly infectious microbes that cause the disease tularemia. Although much of the bacterial burden is carried in non-phagocytic cells, the strategies these pathogens use to invade these cells remains elusive. To examine these mechanisms we developed two in vitro Francisella-based infection models that recapitulate the non-phagocytic cell infections seen in livers of infected mice. Using these models we found that Francisella novicida exploit clathrin and cholesterol dependent mechanisms to gain entry into hepatocytes. We also found that the clathrin accessory proteins AP-2 and Eps15 co-localized with invading Francisella novicida as well as the Francisella Live Vaccine Strain (LVS) during hepatocyte infections. Interestingly, caveolin, a protein involved in the invasion of Francisella in phagocytic cells, was not required for non-phagocytic cell infections. These results demonstrate a novel endocytic mechanism adopted by Francisella and highlight the divergence in strategies these pathogens utilize between non-phagocytic and phagocytic cell invasion

Overall survival in the OlympiA phase III trial of adjuvant olaparib in patients with germline pathogenic variants in BRCA1/2 and high risk, early breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: The randomized, double-blind OlympiA trial compared one year of the oral poly(adenosine diphosphate-ribose) polymerase) inhibitor, olaparib, to matching placebo as adjuvant therapy for patients with pathogenic or likely pathogenic variants in germline BRCA1 or BRCA2 (gBRCA1/2pv) and high-risk, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-negative, early breast cancer (EBC). The first pre-specified interim analysis (IA) previously demonstrated statistically significant improvement in invasive-disease-free survival (IDFS) and distant-disease-free survival (DDFS). The olaparib-group had fewer deaths than the placebo-group, but the difference did not reach statistical significance for overall survival (OS). We now report the pre-specified second IA of OS with updates of IDFS, DDFS, and safety. PATIENTS AND METHODS: 1,836 patients were randomly assigned to olaparib or placebo following (neo)adjuvant chemotherapy (N)ACT, surgery, and radiation therapy if indicated. Endocrine therapy was given concurrently with study medication for hormone-receptor-positive-cancers. Statistical significance for OS at this IA required P<0.015. RESULTS: With median follow-up of 3.5 years, the second IA of OS demonstrated significant improvement in the olaparib-group relative to the placebo-group (HR, 0.68; 98.5% CI 0.47 to 0.97; P=0.009). Four-year OS was 89.8% in the olaparib-group and 86.4% in the placebo-group (Δ 3.4%, 95% CI -0.1% to 6.8%). Four-year IDFS for olaparib-group versus placebo-group was 82.7% versus 75.4% (Δ 7.3%, 95% CI 3.0% to 11.5%) and 4-year DDFS was 86.5% versus 79.1% (Δ 7.4%, 95% CI 3.6% to 11.3%), respectively. Subset analyses for OS, IDFS, and DDFS demonstrated benefit across major subgroups. No new safety signals were identified including no new cases of acute myelogenous leukemia or myelodysplastic syndrome (AML/MDS). CONCLUSION: With 3.5 years of median follow-up, OlympiA demonstrates statistically significant improvement in OS with adjuvant olaparib compared with placebo for gBRCA1/2pv-associated EBC and maintained improvements in the previously reported, statistically significant endpoints of IDFS and DDFS with no new safety signals