Disentangling interglacial sea level and global dynamic topography: Analysis of Madagascar

© 2019 Global inventories of stable sea-level markers for the peak of the last interglacial period, Marine Isotopic Stage (MIS) 5e, play a pivotal role in determining sea-level changes and in testing models of glacial isostatic adjustment. Here, we present surveying and radiometric dating results for emergent terraces from northern Madagascar, which is generally regarded as a stable equatorial site. Fossil coral specimens were dated using conventional and open-system corrected uranium series methods. Elevation of the upper (undated) terrace decreases from 33.8 m to 29.5 m over a distance of 35 km. An intermediate terrace has an average radiometric age of 130.7±13.2 ka (i.e. MIS 5e). Its elevation decreases from 9.3 m to 2.8 m over a distance of 80 km. The record of the lowest terrace is fragmentary and consists of beach rock containing rare corals with ages of 1.6–3.8 ka. The spatial gradient of the MIS 5e marker is inconsistent with glacio-isostatic adjustment calculations. Instead, we propose that variable elevations of this marker around Madagascar, and possibly throughout the Indian Ocean, at least partly reflect spatial patterns of dynamic topography generated by sub-plate mantle convection

Foundation punch-through in clay with sand: Analytical modelling

Severe punch-through of jack-up rig foundations can occur due to the presence of a stronger sand layer in a bed of relatively soft clay. Analytical estimation of the bearing capacity and leg load-penetration response on such multi-layer stratigraphies is challenging. Accurate mechanism-based models need to be established in each of the layers involved and the effects of the mechanisms in each of the layers on the response in the other layers must be captured. Based on the recently developed failure stress-dependent punch-through models for sand-clay stratigraphies, an extended model is proposed for clay-sand-clay stratigraphies. Half-spudcan particle image velocimetry centrifuge tests and fullspudcan centrifuge tests are used in developing and validating the extended model. The centrifuge test results were discussed in a companion paper and this paper focuses on the analytical developments and prediction assessment. Both spudcan peak resistance (qpeak) and spudcan punch-through depth (dpunch) can be estimated using the model. The predictions by the extended model and by the current industry guidelines are compared against the centrifuge test data. The extended model proposed in this paper outperforms the approaches suggested in the guidelines. An advantage of the proposed approach is that it can be used for either sand-clay or clay-sand-clay scenarios and exhibits excellent performance compared to the model testing dataset considered in this work for both cases. The resulting penetration resistance model is a useful design tool for routine punch-through risk assessment.the research presented here forms part of the activities of the Centre for Offshore Foundation Systems (COFS), currently supported as a node of the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Geotechnical Science and Engineering (grant CE110001009) and through the Fugro Chair in Geotechnics, the Lloyd's Register Foundation Chair and Centre of Excellence in Offshore Foundations and the Shell EMI Chair in Offshore Engineering (held by the fourth author). The authors would like to acknowledge the financial contribution of the Australian Research Council (ARC) through Discovery Project DP1096764

Foundation punch-through in clay with sand: centrifuge modelling

This paper is concerned with the vertical penetration resistance of conical spudcan and flat footings in layered soils. Centrifuge tests are reported for a clay bed with strength increasing with depth interbedded with dense and medium dense sand. Both non-visualising (full-model) and visualising (half-model) tests were conducted with high-quality digital images captured and analysed using the particle image velocimetry technique for the latter. The load–displacement curves often show a reduction in resistance on passing through the sand layers, which creates a risk of punch-through failure for the foundations when supporting a jack-up drilling unit. For a given foundation, the peak punch-through capacity (qpeak) is dependent on the thickness of both the overlying clay and the sand layer. The failure mechanism associated with the peak resistance in the sand layer involves entrapment of a thin band of top clay above the sand layer that subsequently shears along an inclined failure surface before being pushed into the underlying clay. The top clay height when normalised by the foundation diameter affects the soil failure pattern in this layer and along with the sand layer thickness controls the severity of the punch-through failure (i.e. the additional penetration before the resistance returns to the peak value). Comparisons are made with current industry guidelines for predicting qpeak and the risk of punch-through failure for sand overlying clay. These methods are shown to be conservative in their prediction of qpeak but inconsistent in predicting punch-through.The research presented here forms part of the activities of the Centre for Offshore Foundation Systems (COFS), currently supported as a node of the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Geotechnical Science and Engineering (grant CE110001009) and through the Fugro Chair in Geotechnics, the Lloyd's Register Foundation Chair and Centre of Excellence in Offshore Foundations and the Shell EMI Chair in Offshore Engineering (held by the fourth author). The authors would like to acknowledge the additional support from the Australian Research Council (ARC) through Discovery Project No. 1096764. Thanks are due to the UWA drum centrifuge technicians Bart Thompson and Greg Outridge

Large-Scale Tectonic Forcing of the African Landscape

Abstract: Successful inverse modeling of observed longitudinal river profiles suggests that fluvial landscapes are responsive to continent‐wide tectonic forcing. However, inversion algorithms make simplifying assumptions about landscape erodibility and drainage planform stability that require careful justification. For example, precipitation rate and drainage catchment area are usually assumed to be invariant. Here, we exploit a closed‐loop modeling strategy by inverting drainage networks generated by dynamic landscape simulations in order to investigate the validity of these assumptions. First, we invert 4,018 African river profiles to determine an uplift history that is independently calibrated, and subsequently validated, using separate suites of geologic observations. Second, we use this tectonic forcing to drive landscape simulations that permit divide migration, interfluvial erosion and changes in catchment size. These simulations reproduce large‐scale features of the African landscape, including growth of deltaic deposits. Third, the influence of variable precipitation is investigated by carrying out a series of increasingly severe tests. Inverse modeling of drainage inventories extracted from simulated landscapes can largely recover tectonic forcing. Our closed‐loop modeling strategy suggests that large‐scale tectonic forcing plays the primary role in landscape evolution. One corollary of the integrative solution of the stream‐power equation is that precipitation rate becomes influential only if it varies on time scales longer than ∼1 Ma. We conclude that calibrated inverse modeling of river profiles is a fruitful method for investigating landscape evolution and for testing source‐to‐sink models

A measure of individual role in collective dynamics

Identifying key players in collective dynamics remains a challenge in several research fields, from the efficient dissemination of ideas to drug target discovery in biomedical problems. The difficulty lies at several levels: how to single out the role of individual elements in such intermingled systems, or which is the best way to quantify their importance. Centrality measures describe a node's importance by its position in a network. The key issue obviated is that the contribution of a node to the collective behavior is not uniquely determined by the structure of the system but it is a result of the interplay between dynamics and network structure. We show that dynamical influence measures explicitly how strongly a node's dynamical state affects collective behavior. For critical spreading, dynamical influence targets nodes according to their spreading capabilities. For diffusive processes it quantifies how efficiently real systems may be controlled by manipulating a single node.Comment: accepted for publication in Scientific Report

Vaccination of Infants with Meningococcal Group B Vaccine (4CMenB) in England.

BACKGROUND: In September 2015, the United Kingdom introduced the multicomponent meningococcal group B vaccine (4CMenB, Bexsero) into its publicly funded national immunization program at a reduced two-dose priming schedule for infants, with a 12-month booster. METHODS: Using data from enhanced national surveillance of invasive meningococcal disease in England, we evaluated the effect of vaccination on the incidence of meningococcal group B disease during the first 3 years of the program. The effect of vaccination was assessed by comparing the observed incidence of disease with the expected incidence based on the incidence during the 4-year prevaccination period in equivalent cohorts and with the use of disease trends in cohorts of children younger than 5 years of age who were not eligible to receive the vaccine. Vaccine effectiveness was estimated with the use of the indirect screening method. RESULTS: 4CMenB uptake in England remained consistently high; data from the first 3 months of 2018 showed that 92.5% of children had completed the primary immunizations by their first birthday and 87.9% had received all three doses by 2 years. From September 2015 through August 2018, the incidence of meningococcal group B disease in England (average annual birth cohort, approximately 650,000 infants) was significantly lower in vaccine-eligible cohorts than the expected incidence (63 observed cases as compared with 253 expected cases; incidence rate ratio, 0.25; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.19 to 0.36), with a 75% reduction in age groups that were fully eligible for vaccination. The adjusted vaccine effectiveness against meningococcal group B disease was 52.7% (95% CI, -33.5 to 83.2) with a two-dose priming schedule for infants and 59.1% (95% CI, -31.1 to 87.2) with a two-dose priming schedule plus a booster at 1 year). Over the 3-year period, there were 169 cases of meningococcal group B disease in the vaccine-eligible cohorts, and an estimated 277 cases (95% CI, 236 to 323) were prevented. CONCLUSIONS: The 4CMenB program was associated with continued positive effect against meningococcal group B disease in children in England, and protection after three doses of the vaccine was sustained for at least 2 years. (Funded by Public Health England.)

Autonomous decision-making against induced seismicity in deep fluid injections

The rise in the frequency of anthropogenic earthquakes due to deep fluid injections is posing serious economic, societal, and legal challenges to geo-energy and waste-disposal projects. We propose an actuarial approach to mitigate this risk, first by defining an autonomous decision-making process based on an adaptive traffic light system (ATLS) to stop risky injections, and second by quantifying a "cost of public safety" based on the probability of an injection-well being abandoned. The ATLS underlying statistical model is first confirmed to be representative of injection-induced seismicity, with examples taken from past reservoir stimulation experiments (mostly from Enhanced Geothermal Systems, EGS). Then the decision strategy is formalized: Being integrable, the model yields a closed-form ATLS solution that maps a risk-based safety standard or norm to an earthquake magnitude not to exceed during stimulation. Finally, the EGS levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is reformulated in terms of null expectation, with the cost of abandoned injection-well implemented. We find that the price increase to mitigate the increased seismic risk in populated areas can counterbalance the heat credit. However this "public safety cost" disappears if buildings are based on earthquake-resistant designs or if a more relaxed risk safety standard or norm is chosen.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures, conference (International Symposium on Energy Geotechnics, 26-28 September 2018, Lausanne, Switzerland

A Statistical Method for Reassociating Human Tali and Calcanei from a Commingled Context.

In a commingled context, assessing that a talus and a calcaneus correspond to the same individual could become a primary step for accurately sorting human remains. For this purpose, the lengths and widths of the trochlea, posterior calcaneal articular surface, and posterior talar articular surface were measured in 197 individuals (105 males, 92 females) from the Athens Collection. A total of 12 highly accurate equations for reassociating tali and calcanei were developed, using simple and multiple linear regression analysis and they were found to be suitable for sorting commingled human remains. Bilateral asymmetry and sex did not have an effect on the accuracy of the method