Enhancing the value of meat inspection records for broiler health and welfare surveillance: longitudinal detection of relational patterns

Abstract Background Abattoir data are under-used for surveillance. Nationwide surveillance could benefit from using data on meat inspection findings, but several limitations need to be overcome. At the producer level, interpretation of meat inspection findings is a notable opportunity for surveillance with relevance to animal health and welfare. In this study, we propose that discovery and monitoring of relational patterns between condemnation conditions co-present in broiler batches at meat inspection can provide valuable information for surveillance of farmed animal health and welfare. Results Great Britain (GB)-based integrator meat inspection records for 14,045 broiler batches slaughtered in nine, four monthly intervals were assessed for the presence of surveillance indicators relevant to broiler health and welfare. K-means and correlation-based hierarchical clustering, and association rules analyses were performed to identify relational patterns in the data. Incidence of condemnation showed seasonal and temporal variation, which was detected by association rules analysis. Syndrome-related and non-specific relational patterns were detected in some months of meat inspection records. A potentially syndromic cluster was identified in May 2016 consisting of infection-related conditions: pericarditis, perihepatitis, peritonitis, and abnormal colour. Non-specific trends were identified in some months as an unusual combination of condemnation reasons in broiler batches. Conclusions We conclude that the detection of relational patterns in meat inspection records could provide producer-level surveillance indicators with relevance to broiler chicken health and welfare

Inference of the infection status of individuals using longitudinal testing data from cryptic populations: Towards a probabilistic approach to diagnosis

Effective control of many diseases requires the accurate detection of infected individuals. Confidently ascertaining whether an individual is infected can be challenging when diagnostic tests are imperfect and when some individuals go for long periods of time without being observed or sampled. Here, we use a multi-event capture-recapture approach to model imperfect observations of true epidemiological states. We describe a method for interpreting potentially disparate results from individuals sampled multiple times over an extended period, using empirical data from a wild badger population naturally infected with Mycobacterium bovis as an example. We examine the effect of sex, capture history and current and historical diagnostic test results on the probability of being truly infected, given any combination of diagnostic test results. In doing so, we move diagnosis away from the traditional binary classification of apparently infected versus uninfected to a probability-based interpretation which is updated each time an individual is re-sampled. Our findings identified temporal variation in infection status and suggest that capture probability is influenced by year, season and infection status. This novel approach to combining ecological and epidemiological data may aid disease management decision-making by providing a framework for the integration of multiple diagnostic test data with other information

Longitudinal survey of two serotine bat (Eptesicus serotinus) maternity colonies exposed to EBLV-1 (European Bat Lyssavirus type 1): Assessment of survival and serological status variations using capture-recapture models.

This study describes two longitudinal serological surveys of European Bat Lyssavirus type 1 (EBLV-1) antibodies in serotine bat (Eptesicus serotinus) maternity colonies located in the North-East of France. This species is currently considered as the main EBLV-1 reservoir. Multievent capture-recapture models were used to determine the factors influencing bat rabies transmission as this method accounts for imperfect detection and uncertainty in disease states. Considering the period of study, analyses revealed that survival and recapture probabilities were not affected by the serological status of individuals, confirming the capacity of bats to be exposed to lyssaviruses without dying. Five bats have been found with EBLV-1 RNA in the saliva at the start of the study, suggesting they were caught during virus excretion period. Among these bats, one was interestingly recaptured one year later and harbored a seropositive status. Along the survey, some others bats have been observed to both seroconvert (i.e. move from a negative to a positive serological status) and serorevert (i.e. move from a positive to a negative serological status). Peak of seroprevalence reached 34% and 70% in site A and B respectively. On one of the 2 sites, global decrease of seroprevalence was observed all along the study period nuanced by oscillation intervals of approximately 2-3 years supporting the oscillation infection dynamics hypothesized during a previous EBLV-1 study in a Myotis myotis colony. Seroprevalence were affected by significantly higher seroprevalence in summer than in spring. The maximum time observed between successive positive serological statuses of a bat demonstrated the potential persistence of neutralizing antibodies for at least 4 years. At last, EBLV-1 serological status transitions have been shown driven by age category with higher seroreversion frequencies in adults than in juvenile. Juveniles and female adults seemed indeed acting as distinct drivers of the rabies virus dynamics, hypothesis have been addressed but their exact role in the EBLV-1 transmission still need to be specified