Systemic Risk and Default Clustering for Large Financial Systems

As it is known in the finance risk and macroeconomics literature, risk-sharing in large portfolios may increase the probability of creation of default clusters and of systemic risk. We review recent developments on mathematical and computational tools for the quantification of such phenomena. Limiting analysis such as law of large numbers and central limit theorems allow to approximate the distribution in large systems and study quantities such as the loss distribution in large portfolios. Large deviations analysis allow us to study the tail of the loss distribution and to identify pathways to default clustering. Sensitivity analysis allows to understand the most likely ways in which different effects, such as contagion and systematic risks, combine to lead to large default rates. Such results could give useful insights into how to optimally safeguard against such events.Comment: in Large Deviations and Asymptotic Methods in Finance, (Editors: P. Friz, J. Gatheral, A. Gulisashvili, A. Jacqier, J. Teichmann) , Springer Proceedings in Mathematics and Statistics, Vol. 110 2015

Comparison of the marginal adaptation of direct and indirect composite inlay restorations with optical coherence tomography

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of the study was to use the photonic imaging modality of optical coherence tomography (OCT) to compare the marginal adaptation of composite inlays fabricated by direct and indirect techniques. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Class II cavities were prepared on 34 extracted human molar teeth. The cavities were randomly divided into two groups according to the inlay fabrication technique. The first group was directly restored on cavities with a composite (Esthet X HD, Dentsply, Germany) after isolating. The second group was indirectly restored with the same composite material. Marginal adaptations were scanned before cementation with an invisible infrared light beam of OCT (Thorlabs), allowing measurement in 200 µm intervals. Restorations were cemented with a self-adhesive cement resin (SmartCem2, Dentsply), and then marginal adaptations were again measured with OCT. Mean values were statistically compared by using independent-samples t-test and paired samples t-test (p<0.05), before and after cementation. RESULTS: Direct inlays presented statistically smaller marginal discrepancy values than indirect inlays, before (p=0.00001442) and after (p=0.00001466) cementation. Marginal discrepancy values were increased for all restorations after cementation (p=0.00008839, p=0.000000952 for direct and indirect inlays, respectively). The mean marginal discrepancy value of the direct group increased from 56.88±20.04 µm to 91.88±31.7 µm, whereas the indirect group increased from 107.54±35.63 µm to 170.29±54.83 µm. Different techniques are available to detect marginal adaptation of restorations, but the OCT system can give quantitative information about resin cement thickness and its interaction between tooth and restoration in a nondestructive manner. CONCLUSIONS: Direct inlays presented smaller marginal discrepancy than indirect inlays. The marginal discrepancy values were increased for all restorations that refer to cement thickness after cementation

Novel Root-Fungus Symbiosis in Ericaceae: Sheathed Ericoid Mycorrhiza Formed by a Hitherto Undescribed Basidiomycete with Affinities to Trechisporales

Ericaceae (the heath family) are widely distributed calcifuges inhabiting soils with inherently poor nutrient status. Ericaceae overcome nutrient limitation through symbiosis with ericoid mycorrhizal (ErM) fungi that mobilize nutrients complexed in recalcitrant organic matter. At present, recognized ErM fungi include a narrow taxonomic range within the Ascomycota, and the Sebacinales, basal Hymenomycetes with unclamped hyphae and imperforate parenthesomes. Here we describe a novel type of basidiomycetous ErM symbiosis, termed ‘sheathed ericoid mycorrhiza’, discovered in two habitats in mid-Norway as a co-dominant mycorrhizal symbiosis in Vaccinium spp. The basidiomycete forming sheathed ErM possesses clamped hyphae with perforate parenthesomes, produces 1- to 3-layer sheaths around terminal parts of hair roots and colonizes their rhizodermis intracellularly forming hyphal coils typical for ErM symbiosis. Two basidiomycetous isolates were obtained from sheathed ErM and molecular and phylogenetic tools were used to determine their identity; they were also examined for the ability to form sheathed ErM and lignocellulolytic potential. Surprisingly, ITS rDNA of both conspecific isolates failed to amplify with the most commonly used primer pairs, including ITS1 and ITS1F + ITS4. Phylogenetic analysis of nuclear LSU, SSU and 5.8S rDNA indicates that the basidiomycete occupies a long branch residing in the proximity of Trechisporales and Hymenochaetales, but lacks a clear sequence relationship (>90% similarity) to fungi currently placed in these orders. The basidiomycete formed the characteristic sheathed ErM symbiosis and enhanced growth of Vaccinium spp. in vitro, and degraded a recalcitrant aromatic substrate that was left unaltered by common ErM ascomycetes. Our findings provide coherent evidence that this hitherto undescribed basidiomycete forms a morphologically distinct ErM symbiosis that may occur at significant levels under natural conditions, yet remain undetected when subject to amplification by ‘universal’ primers. The lignocellulolytic assay suggests the basidiomycete may confer host adaptations distinct from those provisioned by the so far investigated ascomycetous ErM fungi

An examination of periodontal treatment and per member per month (PMPM) medical costs in an insured population

BACKGROUND: Chronic medical conditions have been associated with periodontal disease. This study examined if periodontal treatment can contribute to changes in overall risk and medical expenditures for three chronic conditions [Diabetes Mellitus (DM), Coronary Artery Disease (CAD), and Cerebrovascular Disease (CVD)]. METHODS: 116,306 enrollees participating in a preferred provider organization (PPO) insurance plan with continuous dental and medical coverage between January 1, 2001 and December 30, 2002, exhibiting one of three chronic conditions (DM, CAD, or CVD) were examined. This study was a population-based retrospective cohort study. Aggregate costs for medical services were used as a proxy for overall disease burden. The cost for medical care was measured in Per Member Per Month (PMPM) dollars by aggregating all medical expenditures by diagnoses that corresponded to the International Classification of Diseases, 9(th )Edition, (ICD-9) codebook. To control for differences in the overall disease burden of each group, a previously calculated retrospective risk score utilizing Symmetry Health Data Systems, Inc. Episode Risk Groups™ (ERGs) were utilized for DM, CAD or CVD diagnosis groups within distinct dental services groups including; periodontal treatment (periodontitis or gingivitis), dental maintenance services (DMS), other dental services, or to a no dental services group. The differences between group means were tested for statistical significance using log-transformed values of the individual total paid amounts. RESULTS: The DM, CAD and CVD condition groups who received periodontitis treatment incurred significantly higher PMPM medical costs than enrollees who received gingivitis treatment, DMS, other dental services, or no dental services (p < .001). DM, CAD, and CVD condition groups who received periodontitis treatment had significantly lower retrospective risk scores (ERGs) than enrollees who received gingivitis treatment, DMS, other dental services, or no dental services (p < .001). CONCLUSION: This two-year retrospective examination of a large insurance company database revealed a possible association between periodontal treatment and PMPM medical costs. The findings suggest that periodontitis treatment (a proxy for the presence of periodontitis) has an impact on the PMPM medical costs for the three chronic conditions (DM, CAD, and CVD). Additional studies are indicated to examine if this relationship is maintained after adjusting for confounding factors such as smoking and SES

Polymorphisms in immunoregulatory genes and the risk of histologic chorioamnionitis in Caucasoid women: a case control study

BACKGROUND: Chorioamnionitis is a common underlying cause of preterm birth (PTB). It is hypothesised that polymorphisms in immunoregulatory genes influence the host response to infection and subsequent preterm birth. The relationship between histologic chorioamnionitis and 22 single nucleotide polymorphisms in 11 immunoregulatory genes was examined in a case-control study. METHODS: Placentas of 181 Caucasoid women with spontaneous PTB prior to 35 weeks were examined for histologic chorioamnionitis. Polymorphisms in genes IL1A, IL1B, IL1RN, IL1R1, tumour necrosis factor (TNF), IL4, IL6, IL10, transforming growth factor beta-1 (TGFB1), Fas (TNFRSF6), and mannose-binding lectin (MBL2) were genotyped by polymerase chain reaction and sequence specific primers. Multivariable logistic regression including demographic and genetic variables and Kaplan-Meier survival analyses of genotype frequencies and pregnancy outcome were performed. RESULTS: Sixty-nine (34%) women had histologic evidence of acute chorioamnionitis. Carriage of the IL10-1082A/-819T/592A (ATA) haplotype [Multivariable Odds ratio (MOR) 1.9, P = 0.05] and MBL2 codon 54Asp allele (MOR 2.0, P = 0.04), were positively associated with chorioamnionitis, while the TNFRSF6-1377A/-670G (AG) haplotype (MOR 0.4, P = 0.03) and homozygosity for TGFB1-800G/509T (GT) haplotype (MOR 0.2, P = 0.04) were negatively associated. CONCLUSION: These findings demonstrate that polymorphisms in immunoregulatory genes IL10, MBL2, TNFRSF6 and TGFB1 may influence susceptibility to chorioamnionitis

Climate change goes underground: effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 on microbial community structure and activities in the rhizosphere.

General concern about climate change has led to growing interest in the responses of terrestrial ecosystems to elevated concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere. Experimentation during the last two to three decades using a large variety of approaches has provided sufficient information to conclude that enrichment of atmospheric CO2 may have severe impact on terrestrial ecosystems. This impact is mainly due to the changes in the organic C dynamics as a result of the effects of elevated CO2 on the primary source of organic C in soil, i.e., plant photosynthesis. As the majority of life in soil is heterotrophic and dependent on the input of plant-derived organic C, the activity and functioning of soil organisms will greatly be influenced by changes in the atmospheric CO2 concentration. In this review, we examine the current state of the art with respect to effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 on soil microbial communities, with a focus on microbial community structure. On the basis of the existing information, we conclude that the main effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 on soil microbiota occur via plant metabolism and root secretion, especially in C3 plants, thereby directly affecting the mycorrhizal, bacterial, and fungal communities in the close vicinity of the root. There is little or no direct effect on the microbial community of the bulk soil. In particular, we have explored the impact of these changes on rhizosphere interactions and ecosystem processes, including food web interactions