Overstating the evidence - double counting in meta-analysis and related problems

Background: The problem of missing studies in meta-analysis has received much attention. Less attention has been paid to the more serious problem of double counting of evidence. Methods: Various problems in overstating the precision of results from meta-analyses are described and illustrated with examples, including papers from leading medical journals. These problems include, but are not limited to, simple double-counting of the same studies, double counting of some aspects of the studies, inappropriate imputation of results, and assigning spurious precision to individual studies. Results: Some suggestions are made as to how the quality and reliability of meta-analysis can be improved. It is proposed that the key to quality in meta-analysis lies in the results being transparent and checkable. Conclusions: Existing quality check lists for meta-analysis do little to encourage an appropriate attitude to combining evidence and to statistical analysis. Journals and other relevant organisations should encourage authors to make data available and make methods explicit. They should also act promptly to withdraw meta-analyses when mistakes are found

Cost-effectiveness of strategies preventing late-onset infection in preterm infants

OBJECTIVE: Developing a model to analyse the cost-effectiveness of interventions preventing late-onset infection (LOI) in preterm infants and applying it to the evaluation of anti-microbial impregnated peripherally inserted central catheters (AM-PICCs) compared with standard PICCs (S-PICCs). DESIGN: Model-based cost-effectiveness analysis, using data from the Preventing infection using Antimicrobial Impregnated Long Lines (PREVAIL) randomised controlled trial linked to routine healthcare data, supplemented with published literature. The model assumes that LOI increases the risk of neurodevelopmental impairment (NDI). SETTING: Neonatal intensive care units in the UK National Health Service (NHS). PATIENTS: Infants born ≤32 weeks gestational age, requiring a 1 French gauge PICC. INTERVENTIONS: AM-PICC and S-PICC. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Life expectancy, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and healthcare costs over the infants' expected lifetime. RESULTS: Severe NDI reduces life expectancy by 14.79 (95% CI 4.43 to 26.68; undiscounted) years, 10.63 (95% CI 7.74 to 14.02; discounted) QALYs and costs £19 057 (95% CI £14 197; £24697; discounted) to the NHS. If LOI causes NDI, the maximum acquisition price of an intervention reducing LOI risk by 5% is £120. AM-PICCs increase costs (£54.85 (95% CI £25.95 to £89.12)) but have negligible impact on health outcomes (-0.01 (95% CI -0.09 to 0.04) QALYs), compared with S-PICCs. The NHS can invest up to £2.4 million in research to confirm that AM-PICCs are not cost-effective. CONCLUSIONS: The model quantifies health losses and additional healthcare costs caused by NDI and LOI during neonatal care. Given these consequences, interventions preventing LOI, even by a small extent, can be cost-effective. AM-PICCs, being less effective and more costly than S-PICC, are not likely to be cost-effective. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT03260517

Antimicrobial-impregnated central venous catheters for preventing neonatal bloodstream infection: the PREVAIL RCT

BACKGROUND: Clinical trials show that antimicrobial-impregnated central venous catheters reduce catheter-related bloodstream infection in adults and children receiving intensive care, but there is insufficient evidence for use in newborn babies. OBJECTIVES: The objectives were (1) to determine clinical effectiveness by conducting a randomised controlled trial comparing antimicrobial-impregnated peripherally inserted central venous catheters with standard peripherally inserted central venous catheters for reducing bloodstream or cerebrospinal fluid infections (referred to as bloodstream infections); (2) to conduct an economic evaluation of the costs, cost-effectiveness and value of conducting additional research; and (3) to conduct a generalisability analysis of trial findings to neonatal care in the NHS. DESIGN: Three separate studies were undertaken, each addressing one of the three objectives. (1) This was a multicentre, open-label, pragmatic randomised controlled trial; (2) an analysis was undertaken of hospital care costs, lifetime cost-effectiveness and value of information from an NHS perspective; and (3) this was a retrospective cohort study of bloodstream infection rates in neonatal units in England. SETTING: The randomised controlled trial was conducted in 18 neonatal intensive care units in England. PARTICIPANTS: Participants were babies who required a peripherally inserted central venous catheter (of 1 French gauge in size). INTERVENTIONS: The interventions were an antimicrobial-impregnated peripherally inserted central venous catheter (coated with rifampicin-miconazole) or a standard peripherally inserted central venous catheter, allocated randomly (1 : 1) using web randomisation. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Study 1 - time to first bloodstream infection, sampled between 24 hours after randomisation and 48 hours after peripherally inserted central venous catheter removal. Study 2 - cost-effectiveness of the antimicrobial-impregnated peripherally inserted central venous catheter compared with the standard peripherally inserted central venous catheters. Study 3 - risk-adjusted bloodstream rates in the trial compared with those in neonatal units in England. For study 3, the data used were as follows: (1) case report forms and linked death registrations; (2) case report forms and linked death registrations linked to administrative health records with 6-month follow-up; and (3) neonatal health records linked to infection surveillance data. RESULTS: Study 1, clinical effectiveness - 861 babies were randomised (antimicrobial-impregnated peripherally inserted central venous catheter, n = 430; standard peripherally inserted central venous catheter, n = 431). Bloodstream infections occurred in 46 babies (10.7%) randomised to antimicrobial-impregnated peripherally inserted central venous catheters and in 44 (10.2%) babies randomised to standard peripherally inserted central venous catheters. No difference in time to bloodstream infection was detected (hazard ratio 1.11, 95% confidence interval 0.73 to 1.67; p = 0.63). Secondary outcomes of rifampicin resistance in positive blood/cerebrospinal fluid cultures, mortality, clinical outcomes at neonatal unit discharge and time to peripherally inserted central venous catheter removal were similar in both groups. Rifampicin resistance in positive peripherally inserted central venous catheter tip cultures was higher in the antimicrobial-impregnated peripherally inserted central venous catheter group (relative risk 3.51, 95% confidence interval 1.16 to 10.57; p = 0.02) than in the standard peripherally inserted central venous catheter group. Adverse events were similar in both groups. Study 2, economic evaluation - the mean cost of babies' hospital care was £83,473. Antimicrobial-impregnated peripherally inserted central venous catheters were not cost-effective. Given the increased price, compared with standard peripherally inserted central venous catheters, the minimum reduction in risk of bloodstream infection for antimicrobial-impregnated peripherally inserted central venous catheters to be cost-effective was 3% and 15% for babies born at 23-27 and 28-32 weeks' gestation, respectively. Study 3, generalisability analysis - risk-adjusted bloodstream infection rates per 1000 peripherally inserted central venous catheter days were similar among babies in the trial and in all neonatal units. Of all bloodstream infections in babies receiving intensive or high-dependency care in neonatal units, 46% occurred during peripherally inserted central venous catheter days. LIMITATIONS: The trial was open label as antimicrobial-impregnated and standard peripherally inserted central venous catheters are different colours. There was insufficient power to determine differences in rifampicin resistance. CONCLUSIONS: No evidence of benefit or harm was found of peripherally inserted central venous catheters impregnated with rifampicin-miconazole during neonatal care. Interventions with small effects on bloodstream infections could be cost-effective over a child's life course. Findings were generalisable to neonatal units in England. Future research should focus on other types of antimicrobial impregnation of peripherally inserted central venous catheters and alternative approaches for preventing bloodstream infections in neonatal care. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN81931394. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 57. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information

Demographic and Genetic Patterns of Variation among Populations of Arabidopsis thaliana from Contrasting Native Environments

Background: Understanding the relationship between environment and genetics requires the integration of knowledge on the demographic behavior of natural populations. However, the demographic performance and genetic composition of Arabidopsis thaliana populations in the species' native environments remain largely uncharacterized. This information, in combination with the advances on the study of gene function, will improve our understanding on the genetic mechanisms underlying adaptive evolution in A. thaliana. Methodology/Principal Findings: We report the extent of environmental, demographic, and genetic variation among 10 A. thaliana populations from Mediterranean (coastal) and Pyrenean (montane) native environments in northeast Spain. Geographic, climatic, landscape, and soil data were compared. Demographic traits, including the dynamics of the soil seed bank and the attributes of aboveground individuals followed over a complete season, were also analyzed. Genetic data based on genome-wide SNP markers were used to describe genetic diversity, differentiation, and structure. Coastal and montane populations significantly differed in terms of environmental, demographic, and genetic characteristics. Montane populations, at higher altitude and farther from the sea, are exposed to colder winters and prolonged spring moisture compared to coastal populations. Montane populations showed stronger secondary seed dormancy, higher seedling/juvenile mortality in winter, and initiated flowering later than coastal populations. Montane and coastal regions were genetically differentiated, montane populations bearing lower genetic diversity than coastal ones. No significant isolation-by-distance pattern and no shared multilocus genotypes among populations were detected. Conclusions/Significance: Between-region variation in climatic patterns can account for differences in demographic traits, such as secondary seed dormancy, plant mortality, and recruitment, between coastal and montane A. thaliana populations. In addition, differences in plant mortality can partly account for differences in the genetic composition of coastal and montane populations. This study shows how the interplay between variation in environmental, demographic, and genetic parameters may operate in natural A. thaliana populations. © 2009 Montesinos et al

Using fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO) to diagnose steroid-responsive disease and guide asthma management in routine care

Acknowledgements We thank Robin Taylor for his informative thinking and publications on FeNO, which have helped to influence and direct the thinking of the authors. Funding Extraction of the real-life dataset was funded by Research in Real Life Limited, the analysis of the dataset and the writing of this manuscript were co-funded (50:50) by Research in Real Life Limited and Aerocrine.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Psychological determinants of whole-body endurance performance

Background: No literature reviews have systematically identified and evaluated research on the psychological determinants of endurance performance, and sport psychology performance-enhancement guidelines for endurance sports are not founded on a systematic appraisal of endurance-specific research. Objective: A systematic literature review was conducted to identify practical psychological interventions that improve endurance performance and to identify additional psychological factors that affect endurance performance. Additional objectives were to evaluate the research practices of included studies, to suggest theoretical and applied implications, and to guide future research. Methods: Electronic databases, forward-citation searches, and manual searches of reference lists were used to locate relevant studies. Peer-reviewed studies were included when they chose an experimental or quasi-experimental research design, a psychological manipulation, endurance performance as the dependent variable, and athletes or physically-active, healthy adults as participants. Results: Consistent support was found for using imagery, self-talk, and goal setting to improve endurance performance, but it is unclear whether learning multiple psychological skills is more beneficial than learning one psychological skill. The results also demonstrated that mental fatigue undermines endurance performance, and verbal encouragement and head-to-head competition can have a beneficial effect. Interventions that influenced perception of effort consistently affected endurance performance. Conclusions: Psychological skills training could benefit an endurance athlete. Researchers are encouraged to compare different practical psychological interventions, to examine the effects of these interventions for athletes in competition, and to include a placebo control condition or an alternative control treatment. Researchers are also encouraged to explore additional psychological factors that could have a negative effect on endurance performance. Future research should include psychological mediating variables and moderating variables. Implications for theoretical explanations of endurance performance and evidence-based practice are described

Antimicrobial-impregnated central venous catheters for prevention of neonatal bloodstream infection (PREVAIL): an open-label, parallel-group, pragmatic, randomised controlled trial

Background Bloodstream infection is associated with high mortality and serious morbidity in preterm babies. Evidence from clinical trials shows that antimicrobial-impregnated central venous catheters (CVCs) reduce catheterrelated bloodstream infection in adults and children receiving intensive care, but there is a paucity of similar evidence for babies receiving neonatal intensive care. Methods This open-label, parallel-group, pragmatic, randomised controlled trial was done in 18 neonatal intensive care units in England. Newborn babies who needed a peripherally inserted CVC (PICC) were allocated randomly (1:1) to receive either a PICC impregnated with miconazole and rifampicin or a standard (non-antimicrobial-impregnated) PICC. Random allocation was done with a web-based program, which was centrally controlled to ensure allocation concealment. Randomisation sequences were computer-generated in random blocks of two and four, and stratified by site. Masking of clinicians to PICC allocation was impractical because rifampicin caused brown staining of the antimicrobial-impregnated PICC. However, participant inclusion in analyses and occurrence of outcome events were determined following an analysis plan that was specified before individuals saw the unblinded data. The primary outcome was the time from random allocation to first microbiologically confirmed bloodstream or cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) infection between 24 h after randomisation and 48 h after PICC removal or death. We analysed outcome data according to the intention-to-treat principle. We excluded babies for whom a PICC was not inserted from safety analyses, as these analyses were done with groups defined by the PICC used. This trial is registered with ISRCTN, number 81931394. Findings Between Aug 12, 2015, and Jan 11, 2017, we randomly assigned 861 babies (754 [88%] born before 32 weeks of gestation) to receive an antimicrobial-impregnated PICC (430 babies) or standard PICC (431 babies). The median time to PICC removal was 8·20 days (IQR 4·77–12·13) in the antimicrobial-impregnated PICC group versus 7·86 days (5·00–12·53) days in the standard PICC group (hazard ratio [HR] 1·03, 95% CI 0·89–1·18, p=0·73), with 46 (11%) of 430 babies versus 44 (10%) of 431 babies having a microbiologically confirmed bloodstream or CSF infection. The time from random allocation to first bloodstream or CSF infection was similar between the two groups (HR 1·11, 95% CI 0·73–1·67, p=0·63). Secondary outcomes relating to infection, rifampicin resistance in positive blood or CSF cultures, mortality, clinical outcomes at neonatal unit discharge, and time to PICC removal were similar between the two groups, although rifampicin resistance in positive cultures of PICC tips was higher in the antimicrobial-impregnated PICC group (relative risk 3·51, 95% CI 1·16–10·57, p=0·018). 60 adverse events were reported from 49 (13%) patients in the antimicrobial-impregnated PICC group and 50 events from 45 (10%) babies in the standard PICC group. Interpretation We found no evidence of benefit or harm associated with miconazole and rifampicin-impregnated PICCs compared with standard PICCs for newborn babies. Future research should focus on other types of antimicrobial impregnation of PICCs and alternative approaches for preventing infection

Dermcidin expression in hepatic cells improves survival without N-glycosylation, but requires asparagine residues

Proteolysis-inducing factor, a cachexia-inducing tumour product, is an N-glycosylated peptide with homology to the unglycosylated neuronal survival peptide Y-P30 and a predicted product of the dermcidin gene, a pro-survival oncogene in breast cancer. We aimed to investigate whether dermcidin is pro-survival in liver cells, in which proteolysis-inducing factor induces catabolism, and to determine the role of potentially glycosylated asparagine residues in this function. Reverse cloning of proteolysis-inducing factor demonstrated ∼100% homology with the dermcidin cDNA. This cDNA was cloned into pcDNA3.1+ and both asparagine residues removed using site-directed mutagenesis. In vitro translation demonstrated signal peptide production, but no difference in molecular weight between the products of native and mutant vectors. Immunocytochemistry of HuH7 cells transiently transfected with V5-His-tagged dermcidin confirmed targeting to the secretory pathway. Stable transfection conferred protection against oxidative stress. This was abrogated by mutation of both asparagines in combination, but not by mutation of either asparagine alone. These findings suggest that dermcidin may function as an oncogene in hepatic as well as breast cells. Glycosylation does not appear to be required, but the importance of asparagine residues suggests a role for the proteolysis-inducing factor core peptide domain

Pioglitazone Decreases Hepatitis C Viral Load in Overweight, Treatment Naïve, Genotype 4 Infected-Patients: A Pilot Study

Insulin resistance (IR) is induced by chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotypes 1 and 4 infections. It is not known whether drugs that affect IR such as Pioglitazone and Prednisone also affect serum HCV RNA titers independently of PEG-Interferon-α2/ribavirin treatment. The primary aim was to assess whether Pioglitazone by improving IR and/or inflammation decreases HCV viral load independently of standard of care HCV treatment. A secondary aim was to assess whether Prednisone, a drug that induces insulin resistance and stimulates HCV viral entry and replication in replicon culture systems, increases HCV viral load in this population.We designed a two-arm, parallel Pilot Study of overweight, treatment naïve genotype 4 HCV-infected patients at a public referral Liver Clinic in Giza, Egypt. The subjects received Pioglitazone (30 mg/day for 14 days) or Prednisone (40 mg/day for 4 days) in a randomized fashion, but the two arms can be considered independent pilot studies. Only changes from baseline within each arm were assessed and no contrasts of the interventions were made, as this was not an aim of the study. Among 105 consecutive HCV genotype 4 patients, 39 were enrolled based on the optimal sample size and power analysis according to the CONSORT statement; 20 to the Pioglitazone group and 19 to the Prednisone group. Pioglitazone was effective in decreasing serum HCV RNA at day-14 (n = 10; difference of means = 205,618 IU/ml; 95% CI 26,600 to 384,600; P<0.001). Although Prednisone did increase serum HCV RNA at day-4 (n = 10; change from baseline = -42,786 IU/ml; 95% CI -85,500 to -15,700; P = 0.049), the log(10) HCV RNA titers were statistically not different from baseline day-0.This is the first documentation that Pioglitazone decreases the serum HCV RNA titers independently of PEG-Interferon-α2/ribavirin treatment. The novel findings of our Study provide the foundation for basic and clinical investigations on the molecular mechanisms responsible for the Pioglitazone-induced decrease in HCV genotype 4 RNA titers.ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01157975