A dynamical trichotomy for structured populations experiencing positive density-dependence in stochastic environments

Positive density-dependence occurs when individuals experience increased survivorship, growth, or reproduction with increased population densities. Mechanisms leading to these positive relationships include mate limitation, saturating predation risk, and cooperative breeding and foraging. Individuals within these populations may differ in age, size, or geographic location and thereby structure these populations. Here, I study structured population models accounting for positive density-dependence and environmental stochasticity i.e. random fluctuations in the demographic rates of the population. Under an accessibility assumption (roughly, stochastic fluctuations can lead to populations getting small and large), these models are shown to exhibit a dynamical trichotomy: (i) for all initial conditions, the population goes asymptotically extinct with probability one, (ii) for all positive initial conditions, the population persists and asymptotically exhibits unbounded growth, and (iii) for all positive initial conditions, there is a positive probability of asymptotic extinction and a complementary positive probability of unbounded growth. The main results are illustrated with applications to spatially structured populations with an Allee effect and age-structured populations experiencing mate limitation

The association between mechanical ventilator compatible bed occupancy and mortality risk in intensive care patients with COVID-19: a national retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: The literature paints a complex picture of the association between mortality risk and ICU strain. In this study, we sought to determine if there is an association between mortality risk in intensive care units (ICU) and occupancy of beds compatible with mechanical ventilation, as a proxy for strain. METHODS: A national retrospective observational cohort study of 89 English hospital trusts (i.e. groups of hospitals functioning as single operational units). Seven thousand one hundred thirty-three adults admitted to an ICU in England between 2 April and 1 December, 2020 (inclusive), with presumed or confirmed COVID-19, for whom data was submitted to the national surveillance programme and met study inclusion criteria. A Bayesian hierarchical approach was used to model the association between hospital trust level (mechanical ventilation compatible), bed occupancy, and in-hospital all-cause mortality. Results were adjusted for unit characteristics (pre-pandemic size), individual patient-level demographic characteristics (age, sex, ethnicity, deprivation index, time-to-ICU admission), and recorded chronic comorbidities (obesity, diabetes, respiratory disease, liver disease, heart disease, hypertension, immunosuppression, neurological disease, renal disease). RESULTS: One hundred thirty-five thousand six hundred patient days were observed, with a mortality rate of 19.4 per 1000 patient days. Adjusting for patient-level factors, mortality was higher for admissions during periods of high occupancy (> 85% occupancy versus the baseline of 45 to 85%) [OR 1.23 (95% posterior credible interval (PCI): 1.08 to 1.39)]. In contrast, mortality was decreased for admissions during periods of low occupancy (< 45% relative to the baseline) [OR 0.83 (95% PCI 0.75 to 0.94)]. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing occupancy of beds compatible with mechanical ventilation, a proxy for operational strain, is associated with a higher mortality risk for individuals admitted to ICU. Further research is required to establish if this is a causal relationship or whether it reflects strain on other operational factors such as staff. If causal, the result highlights the importance of strategies to keep ICU occupancy low to mitigate the impact of this type of resource saturation

Stochastic population growth in spatially heterogeneous environments

Classical ecological theory predicts that environmental stochasticity increases extinction risk by reducing the average per-capita growth rate of populations. To understand the interactive effects of environmental stochasticity, spatial heterogeneity, and dispersal on population growth, we study the following model for population abundances in $n$ patches: the conditional law of $X_{t+dt}$ given $X_t=x$ is such that when $dt$ is small the conditional mean of $X_{t+dt}^i-X_t^i$ is approximately $[x^i\mu_i+\sum_j(x^j D_{ji}-x^i D_{ij})]dt$, where $X_t^i$ and $\mu_i$ are the abundance and per capita growth rate in the $i$-th patch respectivly, and $D_{ij}$ is the dispersal rate from the $i$-th to the $j$-th patch, and the conditional covariance of $X_{t+dt}^i-X_t^i$ and $X_{t+dt}^j-X_t^j$ is approximately $x^i x^j \sigma_{ij}dt$. We show for such a spatially extended population that if $S_t=(X_t^1+...+X_t^n)$ is the total population abundance, then $Y_t=X_t/S_t$, the vector of patch proportions, converges in law to a random vector $Y_\infty$ as $t\to\infty$, and the stochastic growth rate $\lim_{t\to\infty}t^{-1}\log S_t$ equals the space-time average per-capita growth rate \sum_i\mu_i\E[Y_\infty^i] experienced by the population minus half of the space-time average temporal variation \E[\sum_{i,j}\sigma_{ij}Y_\infty^i Y_\infty^j] experienced by the population. We derive analytic results for the law of $Y_\infty$, find which choice of the dispersal mechanism $D$ produces an optimal stochastic growth rate for a freely dispersing population, and investigate the effect on the stochastic growth rate of constraints on dispersal rates. Our results provide fundamental insights into "ideal free" movement in the face of uncertainty, the persistence of coupled sink populations, the evolution of dispersal rates, and the single large or several small (SLOSS) debate in conservation biology.Comment: 47 pages, 4 figure

A method for encoding clinical datasets with SNOMED CT

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Over the past decade there has been a growing body of literature on how the Systematised Nomenclature of Medicine Clinical Terms (SNOMED CT) can be implemented and used in different clinical settings. Yet, for those charged with incorporating SNOMED CT into their organisation's clinical applications and vocabulary systems, there are few detailed encoding instructions and examples available to show how this can be done and the issues involved. This paper describes a heuristic method that can be used to encode clinical terms in SNOMED CT and an illustration of how it was applied to encode an existing palliative care dataset.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The encoding process involves: identifying input data items; cleaning the data items; encoding the cleaned data items; and exporting the encoded terms as output term sets. Four outputs are produced: the SNOMED CT reference set; interface terminology set; SNOMED CT extension set and unencodeable term set.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The original palliative care database contained 211 data elements, 145 coded values and 37,248 free text values. We were able to encode ~84% of the terms, another ~8% require further encoding and verification while terms that had a frequency of fewer than five were not encoded (~7%).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>From the pilot, it would seem our SNOMED CT encoding method has the potential to become a general purpose terminology encoding approach that can be used in different clinical systems.</p

Advantages and Limitations of Commercially Available Electrocuting Grids for Studying Mosquito Behaviour.

Mosquito feeding behaviour plays a major role in determining malaria transmission intensity and the impact of specific prevention measures. Human Landing Catch (HLC) is currently the only method that can directly and consistently measure the biting rates of anthropophagic mosquitoes, both indoors and outdoors. However, this method exposes the participant to mosquito-borne pathogens, therefore new exposure-free methods are needed to replace it. Commercially available electrocuting grids (EGs) were evaluated as an alternative to HLC using a Latin Square experimental design in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Both HLC and EGs were used to estimate the proportion of human exposure to mosquitoes occurring indoors (πi), as well as its two underlying parameters: the proportion of mosquitoes caught indoors (Pi) and the proportion of mosquitoes caught between the first and last hour when most people are indoors (Pfl). HLC and EGs methods accounted for 69% and 31% of the total number of female mosquitoes caught respectively and both methods caught more mosquitoes outdoors than indoors. Results from the gold standard HLC suggest that An. gambiae s.s. in Dar es Salaam is neither exophagic nor endophagic (Pi ≈ 0.5), whereas An. arabiensis is exophagic (Pi < < 0.5). Both species prefer to feed after 10 pm when most people are indoors (Pfl > >0.5). EGs yielded estimates of Pi for An. gambiae s.s., An. arabiensis and An. coustani, that were approximately equivalent to those with HLC but significantly underestimated Pfl for An. gambiae s.s. and An. coustani. The relative sampling sensitivity of EGs declined over the course of the night (p ≤ 0.001) for all mosquito taxa except An. arabiensis. Commercial EGs sample human-seeking mosquitoes with high sensitivity both indoors and outdoors and accurately measure the propensity of Anopheles malaria vectors to bite indoors rather than outdoors. However, further modifications are needed to stabilize sampling sensitivity over a full nocturnal cycle so that they can be used to survey patterns of human exposure to mosquitoes

The disproportionate excess mortality risk of COVID-19 in younger people with diabetes warrants vaccination prioritisation

This is the final version. Available on open access from Springer via the DOI in this recordData availability: CHESS data cannot be shared publicly as it was collected by Public Health England as part of their statutory responsibilities, which allows them to process patient confidential data without explicit patient consent. Data utilised in this study were made available through an agreement between the University of Warwick and Public Health England. Individual requests for access to CHESS data are considered directly by Public Health England (contact via [email protected]).Diabetes U

Superconductivity in Cu_xTiSe_2

Charge density waves (CDWs) are periodic modulations of the conduction electron density in solids. They are collective states that arise from intrinsic instabilities often present in low dimensional electronic systems. The layered dichalcogenides are the most well-studied examples, with TiSe_2 one of the first CDW-bearing materials known. The competition between CDW and superconducting collective electronic states at low temperatures has long been held and explored, and yet no chemical system has been previously reported where finely controlled chemical tuning allows this competition to be studied in detail. Here we report how, upon controlled intercalation of TiSe_2 with Cu to yield Cu_xTiSe_2, the CDW transition is continuously suppressed, and a new superconducting state emerges near x = 0.04, with a maximum T_c of 4.15 K found at x = 0.08. Cu_xTiSe_2 thus provides the first opportunity to study the CDW to Superconductivity transition in detail through an easily-controllable chemical parameter, and will provide new insights into the behavior of correlated electron systems.Comment: Accepted to Nature Physic

Linear confinement without dilaton in bottom-up holography for walking technicolour

In PRD78(2008)055005 [arXiv:0805.1503 [hep-ph]] and PRD79(2009)075004 [arXiv:0809.1324 [hep-ph]], we constructed a holographic description of walking technicolour theories using both a hard- and a soft-wall model. Here, we show that the dilaton field becomes phenomenologically irrelevant for the spectrum of spin-one resonances once a term is included in the Lagrangian that mixes the Goldstone bosons and the longitudinal components of the axial vector mesons. We show how this mixing affects our previous results and we make predictions about how this description of technicolour can be tested.Comment: 7 pages, no figure

Young women's use of a microbicide surrogate: The complex influence of relationship characteristics and perceived male partners' evaluations

This is the post-print version of the article. The official published version can be found at the link below.Currently in clinical trials, vaginal microbicides are proposed as a female-initiated method of sexually transmitted infection prevention. Much of microbicide acceptability research has been conducted outside of the United States and frequently without consideration of the social interaction between sex partners, ignoring the complex gender and power structures often inherent in young women’s (heterosexual) relationships. Accordingly, the purpose of this study was to build on existing microbicide research by exploring the role of male partners and relationship characteristics on young women’s use of a microbicide surrogate, an inert vaginal moisturizer (VM), in a large city in the United States. Individual semi-structured interviews were conducted with 40 young women (18–23 years old; 85% African American; 47.5% mothers) following use of the VM during coital events for a 4 week period. Overall, the results indicated that relationship dynamics and perceptions of male partners influenced VM evaluation. These two factors suggest that relationship context will need to be considered in the promotion of vaginal microbicides. The findings offer insights into how future acceptability and use of microbicides will be influenced by gendered power dynamics. The results also underscore the importance of incorporating men into microbicide promotion efforts while encouraging a dialogue that focuses attention on power inequities that can exist in heterosexual relationships. Detailed understanding of these issues is essential for successful microbicide acceptability, social marketing, education, and use.This study was funded by a grant from National Institutes of Health (NIHU19AI 31494) as well as research awards to the first author: Friends of the Kinsey Institute Research Grant Award, Indiana University’s School of HPER Graduate Student Grant-in-Aid of Research Award, William L. Yarber Sexual Health Fellowship, and the Indiana University Graduate and Professional Student Organization Research Grant

Strain-dependent host transcriptional responses to toxoplasma infection are largely conserved in mammalian and avian hosts

Toxoplasma gondii has a remarkable ability to infect an enormous variety of mammalian and avian species. Given this, it is surprising that three strains (Types I/II/III) account for the majority of isolates from Europe/North America. The selective pressures that have driven the emergence of these particular strains, however, remain enigmatic. We hypothesized that strain selection might be partially driven by adaptation of strains for mammalian versus avian hosts. To test this, we examine in vitro, strain-dependent host responses in fibroblasts of a representative avian host, the chicken (Gallus gallus). Using gene expression profiling of infected chicken embryonic fibroblasts and pathway analysis to assess host response, we show here that chicken cells respond with distinct transcriptional profiles upon infection with Type II versus III strains that are reminiscent of profiles observed in mammalian cells. To identify the parasite drivers of these differences, chicken fibroblasts were infected with individual F1 progeny of a Type II x III cross and host gene expression was assessed for each by microarray. QTL mapping of transcriptional differences suggested, and deletion strains confirmed, that, as in mammalian cells, the polymorphic rhoptry kinase ROP16 is the major driver of strain-specific responses. We originally hypothesized that comparing avian versus mammalian host response might reveal an inversion in parasite strain-dependent phenotypes; specifically, for polymorphic effectors like ROP16, we hypothesized that the allele with most activity in mammalian cells might be less active in avian cells. Instead, we found that activity of ROP16 alleles appears to be conserved across host species; moreover, additional parasite loci that were previously mapped for strain-specific effects on mammalian response showed similar strain-specific effects in chicken cells. These results indicate that if different hosts select for different parasite genotypes, the selection operates downstream of the signaling occurring during the beginning of the host's immune response. © 2011 Ong et al