Infectiousness in a Cohort of Brazilian Dogs: Why Culling Fails to Control Visceral Leishmaniasis in Areas of High Transmission

The elimination of seropositive dogs in Brazil has been used to control zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis but with little success. To elucidate the reasons for this, the infectiousness of 50 sentinel dogs exposed to natural Leishmania chagasi infection was assessed through time by xenodiagnosis with the sandfly vector, Lutzomyia longipalpis. Eighteen (43%) of 42 infected dogs became infectious after a median of 333 days in the field (105 days after seroconversion). Seven highly infectious dogs (17%) accounted for >80% of sandfly infections. There were positive correlations between infectiousness and anti-Leishmania immunoglobulin G, parasite detection by polymerase chain reaction, and clinical disease (logistic regression, r2 = 0.080.18). The sensitivity of enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay to detect currently infectious dogs was high (96%) but lower in the latent period (<63%), and specificity was low (24%). Mathematical modeling suggests that culling programs fail because of high incidence of infection and infectiousness, the insensitivity of the diagnostic test to detect infectious dogs, and time delays between diagnosis and culling

Detection of Leishmania infantum by PCR, serology and cellular immune response in a cohort study of Brazilian dogs

The sensitivity and specificity of PCR, serology (ELISA) and lymphoproliferative response to Leishmania antigen for the detection of Leishmania infantum infection were evaluated in a cohort of 126 dogs exposed to natural infection in Brazil. For PCR, Leishmania DNA from bone-marrow was amplified with both minicircle and ribosomal primers. The infection status and time of infection of each dog were estimated from longitudinal data. The sensitivity of PCR in parasite-positive samples was 98%. However, the overall sensitivity of PCR in post-infection samples, from dogs with confirmed infection, was only 68%. The sensitivity of PCR varied during the course of infection, being highest (78–88%) 0–135 days post-infection and declining to around 50% after 300 days. The sensitivity of PCR also varied between dogs, and was highest in sick dogs. The sensitivity of serology was similar in parasite-positive (84%), PCR-positive (86%) and post-infection (88%) samples. The sensitivity of serology varied during the course of infection, being lowest at the time of infection and high (93–100%) thereafter. Problems in determining the specificity of serology are discussed. The sensitivity and specificity of cellular responsiveness were low. These data suggest that PCR is most useful in detecting active or symptomatic infection, and that serology can be a more sensitive technique for the detection of all infected dogs

Systematic Study of Fermion Masses and Mixing Angles in Horizontal SU(2) Gauge Theory

Despite its great success in explaining the basic interactions of nature, the standard model suffers from an inability to explain the observed masses of the fundamental particles and the weak mixing angles between them. We shall survey a set of possible extensions to the standard model, employing an SU(2) ``horizontal'' gauge symmetry between the particle generations, to see what light they can shed on this problem.Comment: 43 pages, 4 figures (available by postal mail on request), OZ-92/0

The role of cranial and thoracic EMG within diagnostic criteria for ALS.

INTRODUCTION: The contribution of cranial and thoracic region electromyography (EMG) to diagnostic criteria for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) has not been evaluated. METHODS: Clinical and EMG data from each craniospinal region were retrospectively assessed in 470 patients; 214 had ALS. Changes to diagnostic classification in Awaji-Shima and revised El Escorial criteria following withdrawal of cranial/thoracic EMG data were ascertained. RESULTS: Sensitivity for lower motor neuron involvement in ALS was highest in cervical/lumbar regions; specificity was highest in cranial/thoracic regions. Cranial EMG contributed to definite/probable Awaji-Shima categorization in 1.4% of patients. Thoracic EMG made no contribution. For revised El Escorial criteria, cranial and thoracic data reclassified 1% and 5% of patients, respectively. CONCLUSION: Cranial EMG data make small contributions to both criteria, thoracic data contribute only to the revised El Escorial criteria. However, cranial and thoracic region abnormalities are specific in ALS. Consideration should be given to allowing greater diagnostic contribution from thoracic EMG

First fossil-leaf floras from Brunei Darussalam show dipterocarp dominance in Borneo by the Pliocene.

The Malay Archipelago is one of the most biodiverse regions on Earth, but it suffers high extinction risks due to severe anthropogenic pressures. Paleobotanical knowledge provides baselines for the conservation of living analogs and improved understanding of vegetation, biogeography, and paleoenvironments through time. The Malesian bioregion is well studied palynologically, but there have been very few investigations of Cenozoic paleobotany (plant macrofossils) in a century or more. We report the first paleobotanical survey of Brunei Darussalam, a sultanate on the north coast of Borneo that still preserves the majority of its extraordinarily diverse, old-growth tropical rainforests. We discovered abundant compression floras dominated by angiosperm leaves at two sites of probable Pliocene age: Berakas Beach, in the Liang Formation, and Kampong Lugu, in an undescribed stratigraphic unit. Both sites also yielded rich palynofloral assemblages from the macrofossil-bearing beds, indicating lowland fern-dominated swamp (Berakas Beach) and mangrove swamp (Kampong Lugu) depositional environments. Fern spores from at least nine families dominate both palynological assemblages, along with abundant fungal and freshwater algal remains, rare marine microplankton, at least four mangrove genera, and a diverse rainforest tree and liana contribution (at least 19 families) with scarce pollen of Dipterocarpaceae, today's dominant regional life form. Compressed leaves and rare reproductive material represent influx to the depocenters from the adjacent coastal rainforests. Although only about 40% of specimens preserve informative details, we can distinguish 23 leaf and two reproductive morphotypes among the two sites. Dipterocarps are by far the most abundant group in both compression assemblages, providing rare, localized evidence for dipterocarp-dominated lowland rainforests in the Malay Archipelago before the Pleistocene. The dipterocarp fossils include winged Shorea fruits, at least two species of plicate Dipterocarpus leaves, and very common Dryobalanops leaves. We attribute additional leaf taxa to Rhamnaceae (Ziziphus), Melastomataceae, and Araceae (Rhaphidophora), all rare or new fossil records for the region. The dipterocarp leaf dominance contrasts sharply with the family's &lt;1% representation in the palynofloras from the same strata. This result directly demonstrates that dipterocarp pollen is prone to strong taphonomic filtering and underscores the importance of macrofossils for quantifying the timing of the dipterocarps' rise to dominance in the region. Our work shows that complex coastal rainforests dominated by dipterocarps, adjacent to swamps and mangroves and otherwise similar to modern ecosystems, have existed in Borneo for at least 4-5 million years. Our findings add historical impetus for the conservation of these gravely imperiled and extremely biodiverse ecosystems

Ensembles of probability estimation trees for customer churn prediction

Customer churn prediction is one of the most, important elements tents of a company's Customer Relationship Management, (CRM) strategy In tins study, two strategies are investigated to increase the lift. performance of ensemble classification models, i.e (1) using probability estimation trees (PETs) instead of standard decision trees as base classifiers; and (n) implementing alternative fusion rules based on lift weights lot the combination of ensemble member's outputs Experiments ale conducted lot font popular ensemble strategics on five real-life chin n data sets In general, the results demonstrate how lift performance can be substantially improved by using alternative base classifiers and fusion tides However: the effect vanes lot the (Idol cut ensemble strategies lit particular, the results indicate an increase of lift performance of (1) Bagging by implementing C4 4 base classifiets. (n) the Random Subspace Method (RSM) by using lift-weighted fusion rules, and (in) AdaBoost, by implementing both

Transport properties of dense fluid argon

We calculate using molecular dynamics simulations the transport properties of realistically modeled fluid argon at pressures up to $\simeq 50GPa$ and temperatures up to $3000K$. In this context we provide a critique of some newer theoretical predictions for the diffusion coefficients of liquids and a discussion of the Enskog theory relevance under two different adaptations: modified Enskog theory (MET) and effective diameter Enskog theory. We also analyze a number of experimental data for the thermal conductivity of monoatomic and small diatomic dense fluids.Comment: 8 pages, 6 figure

Population Monte Carlo algorithms

We give a cross-disciplinary survey on ``population'' Monte Carlo algorithms. In these algorithms, a set of ``walkers'' or ``particles'' is used as a representation of a high-dimensional vector. The computation is carried out by a random walk and split/deletion of these objects. The algorithms are developed in various fields in physics and statistical sciences and called by lots of different terms -- ``quantum Monte Carlo'', ``transfer-matrix Monte Carlo'', ``Monte Carlo filter (particle filter)'',``sequential Monte Carlo'' and ``PERM'' etc. Here we discuss them in a coherent framework. We also touch on related algorithms -- genetic algorithms and annealed importance sampling.Comment: Title is changed (Population-based Monte Carlo -> Population Monte Carlo). A number of small but important corrections and additions. References are also added. Original Version is read at 2000 Workshop on Information-Based Induction Sciences (July 17-18, 2000, Syuzenji, Shizuoka, Japan). No figure

Optical absorption in the strong coupling limit of Eliashberg theory

We calculate the optical conductivity of superconductors in the strong-coupling limit. In this anomalous limit the typical energy scale is set by the coupling energy, and other energy scales such as the energy of the bosons mediating the attraction are negligibly small. We find a universal frequency dependence of the optical absorption which is dominated by bound states and differs significantly from the weak coupling results. A comparison with absorption spectra of superconductors with enhanced electron-phonon coupling shows that typical features of the strong-coupling limit are already present at intermediate coupling.Comment: 10 pages, revtex, 4 uuencoded figure

Szeg\"o kernel asymptotics and Morse inequalities on CR manifolds

We consider an abstract compact orientable Cauchy-Riemann manifold endowed with a Cauchy-Riemann complex line bundle. We assume that the manifold satisfies condition Y(q) everywhere. In this paper we obtain a scaling upper-bound for the Szeg\"o kernel on (0, q)-forms with values in the high tensor powers of the line bundle. This gives after integration weak Morse inequalities, analogues of the holomorphic Morse inequalities of Demailly. By a refined spectral analysis we obtain also strong Morse inequalities which we apply to the embedding of some convex-concave manifolds.Comment: 40 pages, the constants in Theorems 1.1-1.8 have been modified by a multiplicative constant 1/2 ; v.2 is a final updat