Estimating the number needed to treat from continuous outcomes in randomised controlled trials: methodological challenges and worked example using data from the UK Back Pain Exercise and Manipulation (BEAM) trial

Background Reporting numbers needed to treat (NNT) improves interpretability of trial results. It is unusual that continuous outcomes are converted to numbers of individual responders to treatment (i.e., those who reach a particular threshold of change); and deteriorations prevented are only rarely considered. We consider how numbers needed to treat can be derived from continuous outcomes; illustrated with a worked example showing the methods and challenges. Methods We used data from the UK BEAM trial (n = 1, 334) of physical treatments for back pain; originally reported as showing, at best, small to moderate benefits. Participants were randomised to receive 'best care' in general practice, the comparator treatment, or one of three manual and/or exercise treatments: 'best care' plus manipulation, exercise, or manipulation followed by exercise. We used established consensus thresholds for improvement in Roland-Morris disability questionnaire scores at three and twelve months to derive NNTs for improvements and for benefits (improvements gained+deteriorations prevented). Results At three months, NNT estimates ranged from 5.1 (95% CI 3.4 to 10.7) to 9.0 (5.0 to 45.5) for exercise, 5.0 (3.4 to 9.8) to 5.4 (3.8 to 9.9) for manipulation, and 3.3 (2.5 to 4.9) to 4.8 (3.5 to 7.8) for manipulation followed by exercise. Corresponding between-group mean differences in the Roland-Morris disability questionnaire were 1.6 (0.8 to 2.3), 1.4 (0.6 to 2.1), and 1.9 (1.2 to 2.6) points. Conclusion In contrast to small mean differences originally reported, NNTs were small and could be attractive to clinicians, patients, and purchasers. NNTs can aid the interpretation of results of trials using continuous outcomes. Where possible, these should be reported alongside mean differences. Challenges remain in calculating NNTs for some continuous outcomes

COMPANIONS TO APOGEE STARS. I. A MILKY WAY-SPANNING CATALOG OF STELLAR AND SUBSTELLAR COMPANION CANDIDATES AND THEIR DIVERSE HOSTS

In its three years of operation, the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE-1) observed >14,000 stars with enough epochs over a sufficient temporal baseline for the fitting of Keplerian orbits. We present the custom orbit-fitting pipeline used to create this catalog, which includes novel quality metrics that account for the phase and velocity coverage of a fitted Keplerian orbit. With a typical radial velocity precision of similar to 100-200 m s(-1), APOGEE can probe systems with small separation companions down to a few Jupiter masses. Here we present initial results from a catalog of 382 of the most compelling stellar and substellar companion candidates detected by APOGEE, which orbit a variety of host stars in diverse Galactic environments. Of these, 376 have no previously known small separation companion. The distribution of companion candidates in this catalog shows evidence for an extremely truncated brown dwarf (BD) desert with a paucity of BD companions only for systems with a 10M(Jup). Finally, we find all types of companions are ubiquitous throughout the Galactic disk with candidate planetary-mass and BD companions to distances of similar to 6 and similar to 16 kpc, respectively

Pancreatitis after percutaneous ethanol injection into HCC: a minireview of the literature

Deaths after percutaneous ethanol injection (PEI) into hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) may occur within a few hours to a few days following the procedure because of hemoperitoneum and haemorrhage from oesophageal varices or hepatic insufficiency. Pancreatitis has been recently reported as a rare lethal complication of intra-arterial PEI, another modality for treating HCCs. In this minireview, we analyze the literature concerning the development of acute pancreatitis after PEI. Pathogenesis of pancreatitis from opioids and ethanol is also addressed. Treatment with opioids to reduce the patient's abdominal pain after PEI in combination with the PEI itself may lead to direct toxic effects, thus favouring the development of pancreatitis

Regulation and splicing of scavenger receptor class B type I in human macrophages and atherosclerotic plaques

BACKGROUND: The protective role of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) in the cardiovascular system is related to its role in the reverse transport of cholesterol from the arterial wall to the liver for subsequent excretion via the bile. Scavenger receptor class B type I (SR-BI) binds HDL and mediates selective uptake of cholesterol ester and cellular efflux of cholesterol to HDL. The role of SR-BI in atherosclerosis has been well established in murine models but it remains unclear whether SR-BI plays an equally important role in atherosclerosis in humans. The aim of this study was to investigate the expression of SR-BI and its isoforms in human macrophages and atherosclerotic plaques. METHODS: The effect of hypoxia and minimally modified low-density lipoprotein (mmLDL), two proatherogenic stimuli, on SR-BI expression was studied in human monocyte-derived macrophages from healthy subjects using real-time PCR. In addition, SR-BI expression was determined in macrophages obtained from subjects with atherosclerosis (n = 15) and healthy controls (n = 15). Expression of SR-BI isoforms was characterized in human atherosclerotic plaques and macrophages using RT-PCR and DNA sequencing. RESULTS: SR-BI expression was decreased in macrophages after hypoxia (p < 0.005). In contrast, SR-BI expression was increased by exposure to mmLDL (p < 0.05). There was no difference in SR-BI expression in macrophages from patients with atherosclerosis compared to controls. In both groups, SR-BI expression was increased by exposure to mmLDL (p < 0.05). Transcripts corresponding to SR-BI and SR-BII were detected in macrophages. In addition, a third isoform, referred to as SR-BIII, was discovered. All three isoforms were also expressed in human atherosclerotic plaque. Compared to the other isoforms, the novel SR-BIII isoform was predicted to have a unique intracellular C-terminal domain containing 53 amino acids. CONCLUSION: We conclude that SR-BI is regulated by proatherogenic stimuli in humans. However, we found no differences between subjects with atherosclerosis and healthy controls. This indicates that altered SR-BI expression is not a common cause of atherosclerosis. In addition, we identified SR-BIII as a novel isoform expressed in human macrophages and in human atherosclerotic plaques

Functional Characterization of FLT3 Receptor Signaling Deregulation in Acute Myeloid Leukemia by Single Cell Network Profiling (SCNP)

Molecular characterization of the FMS-like tyrosine kinase 3 receptor (FLT3) in cytogenetically normal acute myeloid leukemia (AML) has recently been incorporated into clinical guidelines based on correlations between FLT3 internal tandem duplications (FLT3-ITD) and decreased disease-free and overall survival. These mutations result in constitutive activation of FLT3, and FLT3 inhibitors are currently undergoing trials in AML patients selected on FLT3 molecular status. However, the transient and partial responses observed suggest that FLT3 mutational status alone does not provide complete information on FLT3 biological activity at the individual patient level. Examination of variation in cellular responsiveness to signaling modulation may be more informative.Using single cell network profiling (SCNP), cells were treated with extracellular modulators and their functional responses were quantified by multiparametric flow cytometry. Intracellular signaling responses were compared between healthy bone marrow myeloblasts (BMMb) and AML leukemic blasts characterized as FLT3 wild type (FLT3-WT) or FLT3-ITD. Compared to healthy BMMb, FLT3-WT leukemic blasts demonstrated a wide range of signaling responses to FLT3 ligand (FLT3L), including elevated and sustained PI3K and Ras/Raf/Erk signaling. Distinct signaling and apoptosis profiles were observed in FLT3-WT and FLT3-ITD AML samples, with more uniform signaling observed in FLT3-ITD AML samples. Specifically, increased basal p-Stat5 levels, decreased FLT3L induced activation of the PI3K and Ras/Raf/Erk pathways, decreased IL-27 induced activation of the Jak/Stat pathway, and heightened apoptotic responses to agents inducing DNA damage were observed in FLT3-ITD AML samples. Preliminary analysis correlating these findings with clinical outcomes suggests that classification of patient samples based on signaling profiles may more accurately reflect FLT3 signaling deregulation and provide additional information for disease characterization and management.These studies show the feasibility of SCNP to assess modulated intracellular signaling pathways and characterize the biology of individual AML samples in the context of genetic alterations

Health status and lifestyle factors as predictors of depression in middle-aged and elderly Japanese adults: a seven-year follow-up of the Komo-Ise cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Depression is a common mental disorder. Several studies suggest that lifestyle and health status are associated with depression. However, only a few large-scale longitudinal studies have been conducted on this topic.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The subjects were middle-aged and elderly Japanese adults between the ages of 40 and 69 years. A total of 9,650 respondents completed questionnaires for the baseline survey and participated in the second wave of the survey, which was conducted 7 years later. We excluded those who complained of depressive symptoms in the baseline survey and analyzed data for the remaining 9,201 individuals. In the second-wave survey, the DSM-12D was used to determine depression. We examined the risks associated with health status and lifestyle factors in the baseline survey using a logistic regression model.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>An age-adjusted analysis showed an increased risk of depression in those who had poor perceived health and chronic diseases in both sexes. In men, those who were physically inactive also had an increased risk of depression. In women, the analysis also showed an increased risk of depression those with a BMI of 25 or more, in those sleeping 9 hours a day or more and who were current smokers. A multivariate analysis showed that increased risks of depression still existed in men who had chronic diseases and who were physically inactive, and in women who had poor perceived health and who had a BMI of 25 or more.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>These results suggest that lifestyle and health status are risk factors for depression. Having a chronic disease and physical inactivity were distinctive risk factors for depression in men. On the other hand, poor perceived health and a BMI of 25 or more were distinctive risk factors for depression in women. Preventive measures for depression must therefore take gender into account.</p

Distinct Patterns of DNA Damage Response and Apoptosis Correlate with Jak/Stat and PI3Kinase Response Profiles in Human Acute Myelogenous Leukemia

BACKGROUND:Single cell network profiling (SCNP) utilizing flow cytometry measures alterations in intracellular signaling responses. Here SCNP was used to characterize Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML) disease subtypes based on survival, DNA damage response and apoptosis pathways. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:Thirty four diagnostic non-M3 AML samples from patients with known clinical outcome were treated with a panel of myeloid growth factors and cytokines, as well as with apoptosis-inducing agents. Analysis of induced Jak/Stat and PI3K pathway responses in blasts from individual patient samples identified subgroups with distinct signaling profiles that were not seen in the absence of a modulator. In vitro exposure of patient samples to etoposide, a DNA damaging agent, revealed three distinct "DNA damage response (DDR)/apoptosis" profiles: 1) AML blasts with a defective DDR and failure to undergo apoptosis; 2) AML blasts with proficient DDR and failure to undergo apoptosis; 3) AML blasts with proficiency in both DDR and apoptosis pathways. Notably, AML samples from clinical responders fell within the "DDR/apoptosis" proficient profile and, as well, had low PI3K and Jak/Stat signaling responses. In contrast, samples from clinical non responders had variable signaling profiles often with in vitro apoptotic failure and elevated PI3K pathway activity. Individual patient samples often harbored multiple, distinct, leukemia-associated cell populations identifiable by their surface marker expression, functional performance of signaling pathway in the face of cytokine or growth factor stimulation, as well as their response to apoptosis-inducing agents. CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE:Characterizing and tracking changes in intracellular pathway profiles in cell subpopulations both at baseline and under therapeutic pressure will likely have important clinical applications, potentially informing the selection of beneficial targeted agents, used either alone or in combination with chemotherapy

New Pharmacological Agents to Aid Smoking Cessation and Tobacco Harm Reduction: What has been Investigated and What is in the Pipeline?

A wide range of support is available to help smokers to quit and aid attempts at harm reduction, including three first-line smoking cessation medications: nicotine replacement therapy, varenicline and bupropion. Despite the efficacy of these, there is a continual need to diversify the range of medications so that the needs of tobacco users are met. This paper compares the first-line smoking cessation medications to: 1) two variants of these existing products: new galenic formulations of varenicline and novel nicotine delivery devices; and 2) twenty-four alternative products: cytisine (novel outside of central and eastern Europe), nortriptyline, other tricyclic antidepressants, electronic cigarettes, clonidine (an anxiolytic), other anxiolytics (e.g. buspirone), selective 5-hydroxytryptamine (5-HT) reuptake inhibitors, supplements (e.g. St John’s wort), silver acetate, nicobrevin, modafinil, venlafaxine, monoamine oxidase inhibitors (MAOI), opioid antagonist, nicotinic acetylcholine receptors (nAChR) antagonists, glucose tablets, selective cannabinoid type 1 receptor antagonists, nicotine vaccines, drugs that affect gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA) transmission, drugs that affect N-methyl-D-aspartate receptors (NMDA), dopamine agonists (e.g. levodopa), pioglitazone (Actos; OMS405), noradrenaline reuptake inhibitors, and the weight management drug lorcaserin. Six criteria are used: relative efficacy, relative safety, relative cost, relative use (overall impact of effective medication use), relative scope (ability to serve new groups of patients), and relative ease of use (ESCUSE). Many of these products are in the early stages of clinical trials, however, cytisine looks most promising in having established efficacy and safety and being of low cost. Electronic cigarettes have become very popular, appear to be efficacious and are safer than smoking, but issues of continued dependence and possible harms need to be considered

Nothing Lasts Forever: Environmental Discourses on the Collapse of Past Societies

The study of the collapse of past societies raises many questions for the theory and practice of archaeology. Interest in collapse extends as well into the natural sciences and environmental and sustainability policy. Despite a range of approaches to collapse, the predominant paradigm is environmental collapse, which I argue obscures recognition of the dynamic role of social processes that lie at the heart of human communities. These environmental discourses, together with confusion over terminology and the concepts of collapse, have created widespread aporia about collapse and resulted in the creation of mixed messages about complex historical and social processes

The Seventeenth Data Release of the Sloan Digital Sky Surveys: Complete Release of MaNGA, MaStar, and APOGEE-2 Data

Abstract This paper documents the seventeenth data release (DR17) from the Sloan Digital Sky Surveys; the fifth and final release from the fourth phase (SDSS-IV). DR17 contains the complete release of the Mapping Nearby Galaxies at Apache Point Observatory (MaNGA) survey, which reached its goal of surveying over 10,000 nearby galaxies. The complete release of the MaNGA Stellar Library accompanies this data, providing observations of almost 30,000 stars through the MaNGA instrument during bright time. DR17 also contains the complete release of the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment 2 survey that publicly releases infrared spectra of over 650,000 stars. The main sample from the Extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (eBOSS), as well as the subsurvey Time Domain Spectroscopic Survey data were fully released in DR16. New single-fiber optical spectroscopy released in DR17 is from the SPectroscipic IDentification of ERosita Survey subsurvey and the eBOSS-RM program. Along with the primary data sets, DR17 includes 25 new or updated value-added catalogs. This paper concludes the release of SDSS-IV survey data. SDSS continues into its fifth phase with observations already underway for the Milky Way Mapper, Local Volume Mapper, and Black Hole Mapper surveys.</jats:p