Understanding the survival of Zika virus in a vector interconnected sexual contact network

Citation: Ferdousi, T., Cohnstaedt, L. W., McVey, D. S., & Scoglio, C. M. (2019). Understanding the survival of Zika virus in a vector interconnected sexual contact network. Scientific Reports, 9(1), 7253. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-43651-3The recent outbreaks of the insect-vectored Zika virus have demonstrated its potential to be sexually transmitted, which complicates modeling and our understanding of disease dynamics. Autochthonous outbreaks in the US mainland may be a consequence of both modes of transmission, which affect the outbreak size, duration, and virus persistence. We propose a novel individual-based interconnected network model that incorporates both insect-vectored and sexual transmission of this pathogen. This model interconnects a homogeneous mosquito vector population with a heterogeneous human host contact network. The model incorporates the seasonal variation of mosquito abundance and characterizes host dynamics based on age group and gender in order to produce realistic projections. We use a sexual contact network which is generated on the basis of real world sexual behavior data. Our findings suggest that for a high relative transmissibility of asymptomatic hosts, Zika virus shows a high probability of sustaining in the human population for up to 3 months without the presence of mosquito vectors. Zika outbreaks are strongly affected by the large proportion of asymptomatic individuals and their relative transmissibility. The outbreak size is also affected by the time of the year when the pathogen is introduced. Although sexual transmission has a relatively low contribution in determining the epidemic size, it plays a role in sustaining the epidemic and creating potential endemic scenarios

Identifying Highly Connected Counties Compensates for Resource Limitations when Evaluating National Spread of an Invasive Pathogen

Surveying invasive species can be highly resource intensive, yet near-real-time evaluations of invasion progress are important resources for management planning. In the case of the soybean rust invasion of the United States, a linked monitoring, prediction, and communication network saved U.S. soybean growers approximately $200 M/yr. Modeling of future movement of the pathogen (Phakopsora pachyrhizi) was based on data about current disease locations from an extensive network of sentinel plots. We developed a dynamic network model for U.S. soybean rust epidemics, with counties as nodes and link weights a function of host hectarage and wind speed and direction. We used the network model to compare four strategies for selecting an optimal subset of sentinel plots, listed here in order of increasing performance: random selection, zonal selection (based on more heavily weighting regions nearer the south, where the pathogen overwinters), frequency-based selection (based on how frequently the county had been infected in the past), and frequency-based selection weighted by the node strength of the sentinel plot in the network model. When dynamic network properties such as node strength are characterized for invasive species, this information can be used to reduce the resources necessary to survey and predict invasion progress

The Impact of In Vivo Reflectance Confocal Microscopy for the Diagnostic Accuracy of Melanoma and Equivocal Melanocytic Lesions

In vivo confocal reflectance microscopy recently showed promising results for melanoma (MM) diagnosis on a limited series. The aim of the study was to evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of confocal features for the diagnosis of MM 351 equivocal melanocytic lesions (136 MMs and 215 nevi) were evaluated for 37 confocal features by two blinded expert observers. χ2 test, multivariate discriminant analysis and binary logistic regression were performed for the identification of the significant features and for testing newly created diagnostic models. Melanomas were mostly characterized by epidermal disarray and pagetoid cells in the epidermis, non-edged papillae, and cellular atypia at the junction, and atypical nests and bright nucleated cells in the upper dermis. On the other hand, regular dermal–epidermal architecture, and absence of pagetoid infiltration and atypical cells were suggestive of benign lesions. Five out of 136 melanomas, with mildly atypical melanocytes and occasional pagetoid cells at histopathology, were not diagnosed by confocal microscopy. Nevertheless, new diagnostic models showed no significant improvement compared with the previously proposed confocal microscopy algorithm. Owing to the visualization of cellular aspects, confocal microscopy seems useful for second level examination of clinically and dermoscopically equivocal lesions

Angiogenic and Inflammatory Markers of Cardiopulmonary Changes in Children and Adolescents with Sickle Cell Disease

Background: Pulmonary hypertension and left ventricular diastolic dysfunction are complications of sickle cell disease. Pulmonary hypertension is associated with hemolysis and hypoxia, but other unidentified factors are likely involved in pathogenesis as well. Design and Methods: Plasma concentrations of three angiogenic markers (fibroblast growth factor, platelet derived growth factor-BB [PDGF-BB], vascular endothelial growth factor [VEGF]) and seven inflammatory markers implicated in pulmonary hypertension in other settings were determined by Bio-Plex suspension array in 237 children and adolescents with sickle cell disease at steady state and 43 controls. Tricuspid regurgitation velocity (which reflects systolic pulmonary artery pressure), mitral valve E/Edti ratio (which reflects left ventricular diastolic dysfunction), and a hemolytic component derived from four markers of hemolysis and hemoglobin oxygen saturation were also determined. Results: Plasma concentrations of interleukin-8, interleukin-10 and VEGF were elevated in the patients with sickle cell disease compared to controls (P≤0.003). By logistic regression, greater values for PDGF-BB (P = 0.009), interleukin-6 (P = 0.019) and the hemolytic component (P = 0.026) were independently associated with increased odds of elevated tricuspid regurgitation velocity while higher VEGF concentrations were associated with decreased odds (P = 0.005) among the patients with sickle cell disease. These findings, which are consistent with reports that PDGF-BB stimulates and VEGF inhibits vascular smooth muscle cell proliferation, did not apply to E/Etdi. Conclusions: Circulating concentrations of angiogenic and pro-Inflammatory markers are altered in sickle cell disease children and adolescents with elevated tricuspid regurgitation velocity, a subgroup that may be at risk for developing worsening pulmonary hypertension. Further studies to understand the molecular changes in these children are indicated

A Network-Based Meta-Population Approach to Model Rift Valley Fever Epidemics

Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) has been expanding its geographical distribution with important implications for both human and animal health. The emergence of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in the Middle East, and its continuing presence in many areas of Africa, has negatively impacted both medical and veterinary infrastructures and human health. Furthermore, worldwide attention should be directed towards the broader infection dynamics of RVFV. We propose a new compartmentalized model of RVF and the related ordinary differential equations to assess disease spread in both time and space; with the latter driven as a function of contact networks. The model is based on weighted contact networks, where nodes of the networks represent geographical regions and the weights represent the level of contact between regional pairings for each set of species. The inclusion of human, animal, and vector movements among regions is new to RVF modeling. The movement of the infected individuals is not only treated as a possibility, but also an actuality that can be incorporated into the model. We have tested, calibrated, and evaluated the model using data from the recent 2010 RVF outbreak in South Africa as a case study; mapping the epidemic spread within and among three South African provinces. An extensive set of simulation results shows the potential of the proposed approach for accurately modeling the RVF spreading process in additional regions of the world. The benefits of the proposed model are twofold: not only can the model differentiate the maximum number of infected individuals among different provinces, but also it can reproduce the different starting times of the outbreak in multiple locations. Finally, the exact value of the reproduction number is numerically computed and upper and lower bounds for the reproduction number are analytically derived in the case of homogeneous populations.Comment: published on Journal of Theoretical biolog

A continuous infusion of a minor histocompatibility antigen-immunodominant peptide induces a delay of male skin graft rejection.

We previously reported that an inhibition of antigen-specific Interferon-gamma release and cytotoxicity occurs after a continuous infusion of an HY immunodominant peptide although this treatment is not able to cause a significant delay of male skin grafts rejection. In vivo administration of high doses of an HY peptide, through mini-osmotic pumps, in naïve female mice was used to study the effects on the male skin grafts rejection. A continuous infusion of 1mg of an HY peptide induces a significant delay of male skin graft rejection. In vitro HY-specific Interferon-gamma release was inhibited adding peptide-specific suppressor cells: the ability to inhibit Interferon-gamma release was evident when two HY peptides were present on the same dendritic cells indicating that the suppressor cells exert "linked-suppression". The phenotype of the suppressor cells is CD8(+)CD28(-) and these cells express more CD62 ligand and FOXP3 than controls. Suppressor cells were able to cause a significant delay of rejection of male skin grafts when injected in naive female mice. The inhibitory effects of these suppressor cells seem to be due to the impairment of antigen presentation; down-regulation of B7 molecules on dendritic cells occurred. Taken all together, our data demonstrate that a continuous infusion of an immunodominant HY peptide induces a T CD8 suppressor subset able to inhibit immune responses to male tissues and cells