SARS-CoV-2 antibody dynamics in blood donors and COVID-19 epidemiology in eight Brazilian state capitals: A serial cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 situation in Brazil is complex due to large differences in the shape and size of regional epidemics. Understanding these patterns is crucial to understand future outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 or other respiratory pathogens in the country. METHODS: We tested 97,950 blood donation samples for IgG antibodies from March 2020 to March 2021 in 8 of Brazil's most populous cities. Residential postal codes were used to obtain representative samples. Weekly age- and sex-specific seroprevalence were estimated by correcting the crude seroprevalence by test sensitivity, specificity, and antibody waning. RESULTS: The inferred attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 in December 2020, before the Gamma variant of concern (VOC) was dominant, ranged from 19.3% (95% credible interval [CrI] 17.5-21.2%) in Curitiba to 75.0% (95% CrI 70.8-80.3%) in Manaus. Seroprevalence was consistently smaller in women and donors older than 55 years. The age-specific infection fatality rate (IFR) differed between cities and consistently increased with age. The infection hospitalisation rate increased significantly during the Gamma-dominated second wave in Manaus, suggesting increased morbidity of the Gamma VOC compared to previous variants circulating in Manaus. The higher disease penetrance associated with the health system's collapse increased the overall IFR by a minimum factor of 2.91 (95% CrI 2.43-3.53). CONCLUSIONS: These results highlight the utility of blood donor serosurveillance to track epidemic maturity and demonstrate demographic and spatial heterogeneity in SARS-CoV-2 spread. FUNDING: This work was supported by Itaú Unibanco 'Todos pela Saude' program; FAPESP (grants 18/14389-0, 2019/21585-0); Wellcome Trust and Royal Society Sir Henry Dale Fellowship 204311/Z/16/Z; the Gates Foundation (INV- 034540 and INV-034652); REDS-IV-P (grant HHSN268201100007I); the UK Medical Research Council (MR/S0195/1, MR/V038109/1); CAPES; CNPq (304714/2018-6); Fundação Faculdade de Medicina; Programa Inova Fiocruz-CE/Funcap - Edital 01/2020 Number: FIO-0167-00065.01.00/20 SPU N°06531047/2020; JBS - Fazer o bem faz bem

Adjustment for time-invariant and time-varying confounders in ‘unexplained residuals’ models for longitudinal data within a causal framework and associated challenges

‘Unexplained residuals’ models have been used within lifecourse epidemiology to model an exposure measured longitudinally at several time points in relation to a distal outcome. It has been claimed that these models have several advantages, including: the ability to estimate multiple total causal effects in a single model, and additional insight into the effect on the outcome of greater-than-expected increases in the exposure compared to traditional regression methods. We evaluate these properties and prove mathematically how adjustment for confounding variables must be made within this modelling framework. Importantly, we explicitly place unexplained residual models in a causal framework using directed acyclic graphs. This allows for theoretical justification of appropriate confounder adjustment and provides a framework for extending our results to more complex scenarios than those examined in this paper. We also discuss several interpretational issues relating to unexplained residual models within a causal framework. We argue that unexplained residual models offer no additional insights compared to traditional regression methods, and, in fact, are more challenging to implement; moreover, they artificially reduce estimated standard errors. Consequently, we conclude that unexplained residual models, if used, must be implemented with great care

Lower Expression of TLR2 and SOCS-3 Is Associated with Schistosoma haematobium Infection and with Lower Risk for Allergic Reactivity in Children Living in a Rural Area in Ghana

Inflammatory diseases such as atopic disorders are a major health problem in the Western world, but their prevalence is also increasing in developing countries, especially in urban centres. There is increasing evidence that exposure to a rural environment with high burden of compounds derived from parasites and microorganisms is associated with protection from atopic disorders. Since urbanisation is progressing at a rapid pace, particularly in less-developed nations, there is a need to understand the molecular processes that control the progress towards the development of allergic diseases in developing countries. In this study we have examined a population of school children living in a rural area of Ghana, where helminth (worm) infections are prevalent and associated with protection from skin reactivity to house dust mite. Blood samples were collected from these children and analysed for the expression levels of several genes involved in the development of a pro allergic immune system. The results point at a potential molecular link that might explain the negative association between schistosome infections and allergies

Reversible Disruption of Pre-Pulse Inhibition in Hypomorphic-Inducible and Reversible CB1-/- Mice

Although several genes are implicated in the pathogenesis of schizophrenia, in animal models for such a severe mental illness only some aspects of the pathology can be represented (endophenotypes). Genetically modified mice are currently being used to obtain or characterize such endophenotypes. Since its cloning and characterization CB1 receptor has increasingly become of significant physiological, pharmacological and clinical interest. Recently, its involvement in schizophrenia has been reported. Among the different approaches employed, gene targeting permits to study the multiple roles of the endocannabinoid system using knockout (-/-) mice represent a powerful model but with some limitations due to compensation. To overcome such a limitation, we have generated an inducible and reversible tet-off dependent tissue-specific CB1-/- mice where the CB1R is re-expressed exclusively in the forebrain at a hypomorphic level due to a mutation (IRh-CB1-/-) only in absence of doxycycline (Dox). In such mice, under Dox+ or vehicle, as well as in wild-type (WT) and CB1-/-, two endophenotypes motor activity (increased in animal models of schizophrenia) and pre-pulse inhibition (PPI) of startle reflex (disrupted in schizophrenia) were analyzed. Both CB1-/- and IRh-CB1-/- showed increased motor activity when compared to WT animals. The PPI response, unaltered in WT and CB1-/- animals, was on the contrary highly and significantly disrupted only in Dox+ IRh-CB1-/- mice. Such a response was easily reverted after either withdrawal from Dox or haloperidol treatment. This is the first Inducible and Reversible CB1-/- mice model to be described in the literature. It is noteworthy that the PPI disruption is not present either in classical full CB1-/- mice or following acute administration of rimonabant. Such a hypomorphic model may provide a new tool for additional in vivo and in vitro studies of the physiological and pathological roles of cannabinoid system in schizophrenia and in other psychiatric disorders

A multidisciplinary systematic review of the use of diagrams as a means of collecting data from research subjects: application, benefits and recommendations

BACKGROUND: In research, diagrams are most commonly used in the analysis of data and visual presentation of results. However there has been a substantial growth in the use of diagrams in earlier stages of the research process to collect data. Despite this growth, guidance on this technique is often isolated within disciplines. METHODS: A multidisciplinary systematic review was performed, which included 13 traditional healthcare and non-health-focused indexes, non-indexed searches and contacting experts in the field. English-language articles that used diagrams as a data collection tool and reflected on the process were included in the review, with no restriction on publication date. RESULTS: The search identified 2690 documents, of which 80 were included in the final analysis. The choice to use diagrams for data collection is often determined by requirements of the research topic, such as the need to understand research subjects' knowledge or cognitive structure, to overcome cultural and linguistic differences, or to understand highly complex subject matter. How diagrams were used for data collection varied by the degrees of instruction for, and freedom in, diagram creation, the number of diagrams created or edited and the use of diagrams in conjunction with other data collection methods. Depending on how data collection is structured, a variety of options for qualitative and quantitative analysis are available to the researcher. The review identified a number of benefits to using diagrams in data collection, including the ease with which the method can be adapted to complement other data collection methods and its ability to focus discussion. However it is clear that the benefits and challenges of diagramming depend on the nature of its application and the type of diagrams used. DISCUSSION/CONCLUSION: The results of this multidisciplinary systematic review examine the application of diagrams in data collection and the methods for analyzing the unique datasets elicited. Three recommendations are presented. Firstly, the diagrammatic approach should be chosen based on the type of data needed. Secondly, appropriate instructions will depend on the approach chosen. And thirdly, the final results should present examples of original or recreated diagrams. This review also highlighted the need for a standardized terminology of the method and a supporting theoretical framework

The ELBA Force Field for Coarse-Grain Modeling of Lipid Membranes

A new coarse-grain model for molecular dynamics simulation of lipid membranes is presented. Following a simple and conventional approach, lipid molecules are modeled by spherical sites, each representing a group of several atoms. In contrast to common coarse-grain methods, two original (interdependent) features are here adopted. First, the main electrostatics are modeled explicitly by charges and dipoles, which interact realistically through a relative dielectric constant of unity (). Second, water molecules are represented individually through a new parametrization of the simple Stockmayer potential for polar fluids; each water molecule is therefore described by a single spherical site embedded with a point dipole. The force field is shown to accurately reproduce the main physical properties of single-species phospholipid bilayers comprising dioleoylphosphatidylcholine (DOPC) and dioleoylphosphatidylethanolamine (DOPE) in the liquid crystal phase, as well as distearoylphosphatidylcholine (DSPC) in the liquid crystal and gel phases. Insights are presented into fundamental properties and phenomena that can be difficult or impossible to study with alternative computational or experimental methods. For example, we investigate the internal pressure distribution, dipole potential, lipid diffusion, and spontaneous self-assembly. Simulations lasting up to 1.5 microseconds were conducted for systems of different sizes (128, 512 and 1058 lipids); this also allowed us to identify size-dependent artifacts that are expected to affect membrane simulations in general. Future extensions and applications are discussed, particularly in relation to the methodology's inherent multiscale capabilities

Predicting SARS-CoV-2 variant spread in a completely seropositive population using semi-quantitative antibody measurements in blood donors

SARS-CoV-2 serologic surveys estimate the proportion of the population with antibodies against historical variants, which nears 100% in many settings. New approaches are required to fully exploit serosurvey data. Using a SARS-CoV-2 anti-Spike (S) protein chemiluminescent microparticle assay, we attained a semi-quantitative measurement of population IgG titers in serial cross-sectional monthly samples of blood donations across seven Brazilian state capitals (March 2021–November 2021). Using an ecological analysis, we assessed the contributions of prior attack rate and vaccination to antibody titer. We compared anti-S titer across the seven cities during the growth phase of the Delta variant and used this to predict the resulting age-standardized incidence of severe COVID-19 cases. We tested ~780 samples per month, per location. Seroprevalence rose to >95% across all seven capitals by November 2021. Driven by vaccination, mean antibody titer increased 16-fold over the study, with the greatest increases occurring in cities with the highest prior attack rates. Mean anti-S IgG was strongly correlated (adjusted R2 = 0.89) with the number of severe cases caused by Delta. Semi-quantitative anti-S antibody titers are informative about prior exposure and vaccination coverage and may also indicate the potential impact of future SARS-CoV-2 variants