The third dimension Pointing in the dark

Smeets, J.B.J. [Promotor]Brenner, E.M. [Copromotor

O Custo Da Política Subnacional: A Forma Como O Dinheiro é Gasto Importa? Relação Entre Receita, Despesas E Sucesso Eleitoral

The article focuses on spending on election campaigns. Specifically proposed: a) producing a mapping of election expenses of the 2010 election made by candidates to the House; b) Identify existing patterns of spending; c) Identify the existence of significant statistical correlation between different patterns of electoral spending and election results at the polls. The questions guiding the work are: a) how actors use their resources express the particularities of the contestants? b) certain campaign spending have greater impact on the electoral success than others? For purposes of mapping of election expenses has produced a classification that seek to apprehend election spending into three broad categories: 1) Spending on Advertising; 2) Spending on Infrastructure campaign; and 3) Personnel Expenses. The most important findings are the perception that only the amount of money is not enough to explain the electoral success. The models show that the spending pattern needs to be focused and that higher expenses are intended for communication and advertising. In addition, candidates who compete in elections better organized parties and with a degree of more centralized coordination are better than their competitors, as hypothesis originally presented by Guarnieri (2011).221569

Comportamento Per Se De Híbridos De Capim-elefante Para Fins Energéticos

The aim of this study was to evaluate the Per se performance of elephant grass hybrids obtained by partial diallel crossing and also their parents for energy purposes through agronomic traits during rainy and dry seasons. The experiment was conducted at Pesagro experimental station, Campos dos Goytacazes, RJ, Brazil, in randomized blocks, with three repetitions. The crosses were made between contrasting parents in a partial diallel scheme with 5 female parents × 5 male parents. The treatments consisted of ten parents, twenty-five hybrid combinations and the control. Three cuts were realized for evaluations (April and October 2013 and April 2014). The characteristics evaluated were: plant height (ALT), in m; stem diameter (SD), in cm; leaf blade width (LB), in cm; number of tillers per linear meter (NP); dry matter percentage (%DM) and dry matter production (DMP), in t.ha-1. Variance analysis were performed and the means were grouped according to Scott-Knott test (P>0.05). It was oberved that the hybrid H4 (Cuban Pinda x Taiwan A-144), H7 (Cameroon - Piracicaba × Três Rios), H8 (Cameroon - Piracicaba × Mercker 86-Mexico), H10 (Cameroon - Piracicaba × Roxo), H13 (P241-86-Piracicaba × Mercker 86-Mexico), H17 (IAC Campinas × Três Rios) and H18 (IAC-86-Campinas × Mercker 86-Mexico) presented high biomass production.71738

Considering discrepancy when calibrating a mechanistic electrophysiology model

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a vital step in using mathematical models and simulations to take decisions. The field of cardiac simulation has begun to explore and adopt UQ methods to characterize uncertainty in model inputs and how that propagates through to outputs or predictions; examples of this can be seen in the papers of this issue. In this review and perspective piece, we draw attention to an important and under-addressed source of uncertainty in our predictions—that of uncertainty in the model structure or the equations themselves. The difference between imperfect models and reality is termed model discrepancy, and we are often uncertain as to the size and consequences of this discrepancy. Here, we provide two examples of the consequences of discrepancy when calibrating models at the ion channel and action potential scales. Furthermore, we attempt to account for this discrepancy when calibrating and validating an ion channel model using different methods, based on modelling the discrepancy using Gaussian processes and autoregressive-moving-average models, then highlight the advantages and shortcomings of each approach. Finally, suggestions and lines of enquiry for future work are provided. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Uncertainty quantification in cardiac and cardiovascular modelling and simulation’

Expedition 361 summary

International Ocean Discovery Program Expedition 361 drilled six sites on the southeast African margin (southwest Indian Ocean) and in the Indian-Atlantic Ocean gateway, from 30 January to 31 March 2016. In total, 5175 m of core was recovered, with an average recovery of 102%, during 29.7 days of on-site operations. The sites, situated in the Mozambique Channel at locations directly influenced by discharge from the Zambezi and Limpopo River catchments, the Natal Valley, the Agulhas Plateau, and Cape Basin, were targeted to reconstruct the history of the greater Agulhas Current system over the past ~5 My. The Agulhas Current is the strongest western boundary current in the Southern Hemisphere, transporting some 70 Sv of warm, saline surface water from the tropical Indian Ocean along the East African margin to the tip of Africa. Exchanges of heat and moisture with the atmosphere influence southern African climates, including individual weather systems such as extratropical cyclone formation in the region and rainfall patterns. Recent ocean model and paleoceanographic data further point at a potential role of the Agulhas Current in controlling the strength and mode of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) during the Late Pleistocene. Spillage of saline Agulhas water into the South Atlantic stimulates buoyancy anomalies that may influence basin-wide AMOC, with implications for convective activity in the North Atlantic and global climate change. The main objectives of the expedition were to establish the role of the Agulhas Current in climatic changes during the Pliocene–Pleistocene, specifically to document the dynamics of the Indian-Atlantic Ocean gateway circulation during this time, to examine the connection of the Agulhas leakage and AMOC, and to address the influence of the Agulhas Current on African terrestrial climates and coincidences with human evolution. Additionally, the expedition set out to fulfill the needs of Ancillary Project Letter number 845, consisting of high-resolution interstitial water sampling to help constrain the temperature and salinity profiles of the ocean during the Last Glacial Maximum. The expedition made major strides toward fulfilling each of these objectives. The recovered sequences allowed generation of complete spliced stratigraphic sections that range from 0 to between ~0.13 and 7 Ma. This sediment will provide decadal- to millennial-scale climatic records that will allow answering the paleoceanographic and paleoclimatic questions set out in the drilling proposal