Estimating SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence

Governments and public health authorities use seroprevalence studies to guide responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. Seroprevalence surveys estimate the proportion of individuals who have detectable SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. However, serologic assays are prone to misclassification error, and non-probability sampling may induce selection bias. In this paper, non-parametric and parametric seroprevalence estimators are considered that address both challenges by leveraging validation data and assuming equal probabilities of sample inclusion within covariate-defined strata. Both estimators are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal, and consistent variance estimators are derived. Simulation studies are presented comparing the estimators over a range of scenarios. The methods are used to estimate severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) seroprevalence in New York City, Belgium, and North Carolina

Illustration of 2 Fusion Designs and Estimators

"Fusion" study designs combine data from different sources to answer questions that could not be answered (as well) by subsets of the data. Studies that augment main study data with validation data, as in measurement-error correction studies or generalizability studies, are examples of fusion designs. Fusion estimators, here solutions to stacked estimating functions, produce consistent answers to identified research questions using data from fusion designs. In this paper, we describe a pair of examples of fusion designs and estimators, one where we generalize a proportion to a target population and one where we correct measurement error in a proportion. For each case, we present an example motivated by human immunodeficiency virus research and summarize results from simulation studies. Simulations demonstrate that the fusion estimators provide approximately unbiased results with appropriate 95% confidence interval coverage. Fusion estimators can be used to appropriately combine data in answering important questions that benefit from multiple sources of information

Night Shift: Expansion of Temporal Niche Use Following Reductions in Predator Density

Predation shapes many fundamental aspects of ecology. Uncertainty remains, however, about whether predators can influence patterns of temporal niche construction at ecologically relevant timescales. Partitioning of time is an important mechanism by which prey avoid interactions with predators. However, the traits that control a prey organism's capacity to operate during a particular portion of the diel cycle are diverse and complex. Thus, diel prey niches are often assumed to be relatively unlikely to respond to changes in predation risk at short timescales. Here we present evidence to the contrary. We report results that suggest that the anthropogenic depletion of daytime active predators (species that are either diurnal or cathemeral) in a coral reef ecosystem is associated with rapid temporal niche expansions in a multi-species assemblage of nocturnal prey fishes. Diurnal comparisons of nocturnal prey fish abundance in predator rich and predator depleted reefs at two atolls revealed that nocturnal fish were approximately six (biomass) and eight (density) times more common during the day on predator depleted reefs. Amongst these, the prey species that likely were the most specialized for nocturnal living, and thus the most vulnerable to predation (i.e. those with greatest eye size to body length ratio), showed the strongest diurnal increases at sites where daytime active predators were rare. While we were unable to determine whether these observed increases in diurnal abundance by nocturnal prey were the result of a numerical or behavioral response, either effect could be ecologically significant. These results raise the possibility that predation may play an important role in regulating the partitioning of time by prey and that anthropogenic depletions of predators may be capable of causing rapid changes to key properties of temporal community architecture

Molecular Characterization of HIV-1 CRF01_AE in Mekong Delta, Vietnam, and Impact of T-Cell Epitope Mutations on HLA Recognition (ANRS 12159)

To date, 11 HIV-1 subtypes and 48 circulating recombinant forms have been described worldwide. The underlying reason why their distribution is so heterogeneous is not clear. Host genetic factors could partly explain this distribution. The aim of this study was to describe HIV-1 strains circulating in an unexplored area of Mekong Delta, Vietnam, and to assess the impact of optimal epitope mutations on HLA binding.We recruited 125 chronically antiretroviral-naive HIV-1-infected subjects from five cities in the Mekong Delta. We performed high-resolution DNA typing of HLA class I alleles, sequencing of Gag and RT-Prot genes and phylogenetic analysis of the strains. Epitope mutations were analyzed in patients bearing the HLA allele restricting the studied epitope. Optimal wild-type epitopes from the Los Alamos database were used as reference. T-cell epitope recognition was predicted using the immune epitope database tool according to three different scores involved in antigen processing (TAP and proteasome scores) and HLA binding (MHC score). with a Vietnamese specificity held by two different haplotypes. The percentage of homology between Mekong and B consensus HIV-1 sequences was above 85%. Divergent epitopes had TAP and proteasome scores comparable with wild-type epitopes. MHC scores were significantly lower in divergent epitopes with a mean of 2.4 (±0.9) versus 2 (±0.7) in non-divergent ones (p<0.0001).Our study confirms the wide predominance of CRF01_AE in the Mekong Delta where patients harbor a specific HLA pattern. Moreover, it demonstrates the lower MHC binding affinity among divergent epitopes. This weak immune pressure combined with a narrow genetic diversity favors immune escape and could explain why CRF01_AE is still predominant in Vietnam, particularly in the Mekong area

Estimating the role of casual contact from the community in transmission of Bordetella pertussis to young infants

The proportion of infant pertussis cases due to transmission from casual contact in the community has not been estimated since before the introduction of pertussis vaccines in the 1950s. This study aimed to estimate the proportion of pertussis transmission due to casual contact using demographic and clinical data from a study of 95 infant pertussis cases and their close contacts enrolled at 14 hospitals in France, Germany, Canada, and the U.S. between February 2003 and September 2004. A complete case analysis was conducted as well as multiple imputation (MI) to account for missing data for participants and close contacts who did not participate. By considering all possible close contacts, the MI analysis estimated 66% of source cases were close contacts, implying the minimum attributable proportion of infant cases due to transmission from casual contact with community members was 34% (95% CI = 24%, 44%). Estimates from the complete case analysis were comparable but less precise. Results were sensitive to changes in the operational definition of a source case, which broadened the range of MI point estimates of transmission from casual community contact to 20%–47%. We conclude that casual contact appears to be responsible for a substantial proportion of pertussis transmission to young infants

Targeted Cytotoxic Therapy Kills Persisting HIV Infected Cells During ART

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) can reduce HIV levels in plasma to undetectable levels, but rather little is known about the effects of ART outside of the peripheral blood regarding persistent virus production in tissue reservoirs. Understanding the dynamics of ART-induced reductions in viral RNA (vRNA) levels throughout the body is important for the development of strategies to eradicate infectious HIV from patients. Essential to a successful eradication therapy is a component capable of killing persisting HIV infected cells during ART. Therefore, we determined the in vivo efficacy of a targeted cytotoxic therapy to kill infected cells that persist despite long-term ART. For this purpose, we first characterized the impact of ART on HIV RNA levels in multiple organs of bone marrow-liver-thymus (BLT) humanized mice and found that antiretroviral drug penetration and activity was sufficient to reduce, but not eliminate, HIV production in each tissue tested. For targeted cytotoxic killing of these persistent vRNA+ cells, we treated BLT mice undergoing ART with an HIV-specific immunotoxin. We found that compared to ART alone, this agent profoundly depleted productively infected cells systemically. These results offer proof-of-concept that targeted cytotoxic therapies can be effective components of HIV eradication strategies

Are hedgerows effective corridors between fragments of woodland habitat? An evidence-based approach

Anthropogenic modification of the countryside has resulted in much of the landscape consisting of fragments of once continuous habitat. Increasing habitat connectivity at the landscape-scale has a vital role to play in the conservation of species restricted to such remnant patches, especially as species may attempt to track zones of habitat that satisfy their niche requirements as the climate changes. Conservation policies and management strategies frequently advocate corridor creation as one approach to restore connectivity and to facilitate species movements through the landscape. Here we examine the utility of hedgerows as corridors between woodland habitat patches using rigorous systematic review methodology. Systematic searching yielded 26 studies which satisfied the review inclusion criteria. The empirical evidence currently available is insufficient to evaluate the effectiveness of hedgerow corridors as a conservation tool to promote the population viability of woodland fauna. However, the studies did provide anecdotal evidence of positive local population effects and indicated that some species use hedgerows as movement conduits. More replicated and controlled field investigations or long term monitoring are required in order to allow practitioners and policy makers to make better informed decisions about hedgerow corridor creation and preservation. The benefits of such corridors in regard to increasing habitat connectivity remain equivocal, and the role of corridors in mitigating the effects of climate change at the landscape-scale is even less well understood