Improved model identification for non-linear systems using a random subsampling and multifold modelling (RSMM) approach

In non-linear system identification, the available observed data are conventionally partitioned into two parts: the training data that are used for model identification and the test data that are used for model performance testing. This sort of 'hold-out' or 'split-sample' data partitioning method is convenient and the associated model identification procedure is in general easy to implement. The resultant model obtained from such a once-partitioned single training dataset, however, may occasionally lack robustness and generalisation to represent future unseen data, because the performance of the identified model may be highly dependent on how the data partition is made. To overcome the drawback of the hold-out data partitioning method, this study presents a new random subsampling and multifold modelling (RSMM) approach to produce less biased or preferably unbiased models. The basic idea and the associated procedure are as follows. First, generate K training datasets (and also K validation datasets), using a K-fold random subsampling method. Secondly, detect significant model terms and identify a common model structure that fits all the K datasets using a new proposed common model selection approach, called the multiple orthogonal search algorithm. Finally, estimate and refine the model parameters for the identified common-structured model using a multifold parameter estimation method. The proposed method can produce robust models with better generalisation performance

Participaci?n competitiva en las subastas RER: estrategia basada en la teor?a de opciones reales

Las energ?as o recursos energ?ticos renovables (RER) son una de las alternativas para reducir la emisi?n de gases de efecto invernadero, una de las causas de los cambios clim?ticos, y al mismo tiempo, un mercado en expansi?n vigorosa en la ?ltima d?cada, relevante para la atracci?n de inversiones y la generaci?n de empleos. El principal mecanismo de promoci?n de las energ?as renovables en el Per? son las subastas, instrumentos que permiten obtener resultados eficientes a partir de la competencia entre los postores. En el Per?, la estructura de las subastas RER es similar a la estructura de una composici?n de distintas opciones de compra financieras (call options) e involucra una secuencia de decisiones similares, respecto al pago de primas para adquisici?n de derechos de decisi?n en fechas establecidas, a aquellas asociadas al citado instrumento financiero derivativo. Por ello, en esta investigaci?n se trata de establecer si se puede utilizar la teor?a de las opciones reales (TOR) para comprender la racionalidad de invertir en un proyecto con gran incertidumbre respecto del VAN, como los elaborados para participar en una subasta RER. As?, en este trabajo se eval?an las estrategias que utilizaron los postores de proyectos e?licos en la cuarta subasta RER promovida por el Gobierno peruano, y la consecuente adjudicaci?n lograda para algunos de sus proyectos. Espec?ficamente, sobre la base de las opciones reales y considerando las garant?as requeridas, se trata de inferir la estrategia utilizada por una de las empresas postoras. Se pretende ayudar a los postores y a los reguladores a utilizar la teor?a de opciones reales para formular estrategias competitivas m?s eficientes en las pr?ximas subastas RER. Los postores podr?an desarrollar estrategias para aumentar su probabilidad de adjudicaci?n a un costo de participaci?n proporcionalmente m?s bajo, y los reguladores podr?an mejorar la definici?n de las garant?as de seguridad de la oferta y de fiel cumplimiento

Ages for exoplanet host stars

Age is an important characteristic of a planetary system, but also one that is difficult to determine. Assuming that the host star and the planets are formed at the same time, the challenge is to determine the stellar age. Asteroseismology provides precise age determination, but in many cases the required detailed pulsation observations are not available. Here we concentrate on other techniques, which may have broader applicability but also serious limitations. Further development of this area requires improvements in our understanding of the evolution of stars and their age-dependent characteristics, combined with observations that allow reliable calibration of the various techniques.Comment: To appear in "Handbook of Exoplanets", eds. Deeg, H.J. & Belmonte, J.A, Springer (2018

Weakened magnetic braking as the origin of anomalously rapid rotation in old field stars

A knowledge of stellar ages is crucial for our understanding of many astrophysical phenomena, and yet ages can be difficult to determine. As they become older, stars lose mass and angular momentum, resulting in an observed slowdown in surface rotation. The technique of 'gyrochronology' uses the rotation period of a star to calculate its age. However, stars of known age must be used for calibration, and, until recently, the approach was untested for old stars (older than 1 gigayear, Gyr). Rotation periods are now known for stars in an open cluster of intermediate age (NGC 6819; 2.5 Gyr old), and for old field stars whose ages have been determined with asteroseismology. The data for the cluster agree with previous period-age relations, but these relations fail to describe the asteroseismic sample. Here we report stellar evolutionary modelling, and confirm the presence of unexpectedly rapid rotation in stars that are more evolved than the Sun. We demonstrate that models that incorporate dramatically weakened magnetic braking for old stars can---unlike existing models---reproduce both the asteroseismic and the cluster data. Our findings might suggest a fundamental change in the nature of ageing stellar dynamos, with the Sun being close to the critical transition to much weaker magnetized winds. This weakened braking limits the diagnostic power of gyrochronology for those stars that are more than halfway through their main-sequence lifetimes.Comment: 25 pages, 3 figures in main paper, 6 extended data figures, 1 table. Published in Nature, January 2016. Please see https://youtu.be/O6HzYgP5uyc for a video description of the resul

Understanding the psychological therapy treatment outcomes for young adults who are not in education, employment, or training (NEET), moderators of outcomes, and what might be done to improve them

Background: To determine: whether young adults (aged 18–24) not in education, employment or training (NEET) have different psychological treatment outcomes to other young adults; any socio-demographic or treatment-related moderators of differential outcomes; and whether service-level changes are associated with better outcomes for those who are NEET. Methods: A cohort was formed of 20 293 young adults treated with psychological therapies in eight Improving Access to Psychological Therapies services. Pre-treatment characteristics, outcomes, and moderators of differential outcomes were compared for those who were and were not NEET. Associations between outcomes and the following were assessed for those that were NEET: missing fewer sessions, attending more sessions, having a recorded diagnosis, and waiting fewer days between referral and starting treatment. Results: Those who were NEET had worse outcomes: odds ratio (OR) [95% confidence interval (CI)] for reliable recovery = 0.68 (0.63–0.74), for deterioration = 1.41 (1.25–1.60), and for attrition = 1.31 (1.19–1.43). Ethnic minority participants that were NEET had better outcomes than those that were White and NEET. Living in deprived areas was associated with worse outcomes. The intensity of treatment (high or low) did not moderate outcomes, but having more sessions was associated with improved outcomes for those that were NEET: odds (per one-session increase) of reliable recovery = 1.10 (1.08–1.12), deterioration = 0.94 (0.91–0.98), and attrition = 0.68 (0.66–0.71). Conclusions: Earlier treatment, supporting those that are NEET to attend sessions, and in particular, offering them more sessions before ending treatment might be effective in improving clinical outcomes. Additional support when working with White young adults that are NEET and those in more deprived areas may also be important

Analysis of Marker-Defined HNSCC Subpopulations Reveals a Dynamic Regulation of Tumor Initiating Properties

Head and neck squamous carcinoma (HNSCC) tumors carry dismal long-term prognosis and the role of tumor initiating cells (TICs) in this cancer is unclear. We investigated in HNSCC xenografts whether specific tumor subpopulations contributed to tumor growth. We used a CFSE-based label retentions assay, CD49f (α6-integrin) surface levels and aldehyde dehydrogenase (ALDH) activity to profile HNSCC subpopulations. The tumorigenic potential of marker-positive and -negative subpopulations was tested in nude (Balb/c nu/nu) and NSG (NOD.Cg-Prkdcscid Il2rgtm1Wjl/SzJ) mice and chicken embryo chorioallantoic membrane (CAM) assays. Here we identified in HEp3, SQ20b and FaDu HNSCC xenografts a subpopulation of G0/G1-arrested slow-cycling CD49fhigh/ALDH1A1high/H3K4/K27me3low subpopulation (CD49f+) of tumor cells. A strikingly similar CD49fhigh/H3K27me3low subpopulation is also present in primary human HNSCC tumors and metastases. While only sorted CD49fhigh/ALDHhigh, label retaining cells (LRC) proliferated immediately in vivo, with time the CD49flow/ALDHlow, non-LRC (NLRC) tumor cell subpopulations were also able to regain tumorigenic capacity; this was linked to restoration of CD49fhigh/ALDHhigh, label retaining cells. In addition, CD49f is required for HEp3 cell tumorigenicity and to maintain low levels of H3K4/K27me3. CD49f+ cells also displayed reduced expression of the histone-lysine N-methyltransferase EZH2 and ERK1/2phosphorylation. This suggests that although transiently quiescent, their unique chromatin structure is poised for rapid transcriptional activation. CD49f− cells can “reprogram” and also achieve this state eventually. We propose that in HNSCC tumors, epigenetic mechanisms likely driven by CD49f signaling dynamically regulate HNSCC xenograft phenotypic heterogeneity. This allows multiple tumor cell subpopulations to drive tumor growth suggesting that their dynamic nature renders them a “moving target” and their eradication might require more persistent strategies

Indirect exclusion of four candidate genes for generalized progressive retinal atrophy in several breeds of dogs

BACKGROUND: Generalized progressive retinal atrophy (gPRA) is a hereditary ocular disorder with progressive photoreceptor degeneration in dogs. Four retina-specific genes, ATP binding cassette transporter retina (ABCA4), connexin 36 (CX36), c-mer tyrosin kinase receptor (MERTK) and photoreceptor cell retinol dehydrogenase (RDH12) were investigated in order to identify mutations leading to autosomal recessive (ar) gPRA in 29 breeds of dogs. RESULTS: Mutation screening was performed initially by PCR and single strand conformation polymorphism (SSCP) analysis, representing a simple method with comparatively high reliability for identification of sequence variations in many samples. Conspicuous banding patterns were analyzed via sequence analyses in order to detect the underlying nucleotide variations. No pathogenetically relevant mutations were detected in the genes ABCA4, CX36, MERTK and RDH12 in 71 affected dogs of 29 breeds. Yet 30 new sequence variations were identified, both, in the coding regions and intronic sequences. Many of the sequence variations were in heterozygous state in affected dogs. CONCLUSION: Based on the ar transmittance of gPRA in the breeds investigated, informative sequence variations provide evidence allowing indirect exclusion of pathogenetic mutations in the genes ABCA4 (for 9 breeds), CX36 (for 12 breeds), MERTK (for all 29 breeds) and RDH12 (for 9 breeds)

High-fidelity multimode fibre-based endoscopy for deep brain in vivo imaging

Progress in neuroscience constantly relies on the development of new techniques to investigate the complex dynamics of neuronal networks. An ongoing challenge is to achieve minimally-invasive and high-resolution observations of neuronal activity in vivo inside deep brain areas. A perspective strategy is to utilise holographic control of light propagation in complex media, which allows converting a hair-thin multimode optical fibre into an ultra-narrow imaging tool. Compared to current endoscopes based on GRIN lenses or fibre bundles, this concept offers a footprint reduction exceeding an order of magnitude, together with a significant enhancement in resolution. We designed a compact and high-speed system for fluorescent imaging at the tip of a fibre, achieving micron-scale resolution across a 50 um field of view, and yielding 7-kilopixel images at a rate of 3.5 frames/s. Furthermore, we demonstrate in vivo observations of cell bodies and processes of inhibitory neurons within deep layers of the visual cortex and hippocampus of anesthetised mice. This study forms the basis for several perspective techniques of modern microscopy to be delivered deep inside the tissue of living animal models while causing minimal impact on its structural and functional properties.Comment: 10 pages, 2 figures, Supplementary movie: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Fm0G3TAIC49LVX6FaEiAtlefkWx1T2a5/vie

Reconstruction of one-dimensional chaotic maps from sequences of probability density functions

In many practical situations, it is impossible to measure the individual trajectories generated by an unknown chaotic system, but we can observe the evolution of probability density functions generated by such a system. The paper proposes for the first time a matrix-based approach to solve the generalized inverse Frobenius–Perron problem, that is, to reconstruct an unknown one-dimensional chaotic transformation, based on a temporal sequence of probability density functions generated by the transformation. Numerical examples are used to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed approach and evaluate its robustness with respect to constantly applied stochastic perturbations

The Cosmological Constant

This is a review of the physics and cosmology of the cosmological constant. Focusing on recent developments, I present a pedagogical overview of cosmology in the presence of a cosmological constant, observational constraints on its magnitude, and the physics of a small (and potentially nonzero) vacuum energy.Comment: 50 pages. Submitted to Living Reviews in Relativity (http://www.livingreviews.org/), December 199