Electoral surveys influence on the voting processes: a cellular automata model

Nowadays, in societies threatened by atomization, selfishness, short-term thinking, and alienation from political life, there is a renewed debate about classical questions concerning the quality of democratic decision-making. In this work a cellular automata (CA) model for the dynamics of free elections based on the social impact theory is proposed. By using computer simulations, power law distributions for the size of electoral clusters and decision time have been obtained. The major role of broadcasted electoral surveys in guiding opinion formation and stabilizing the ``{\it status quo}'' was demonstrated. Furthermore, it was shown that in societies where these surveys are manipulated within the universally accepted statistical error bars, even a majoritary opposition could be hindered from reaching the power through the electoral path.Comment: 15 pages, 9 figure

The Transition to Middle School is Associated with Changes in the Developmental Trajectory of ADHD Symptomatology in Young Adolescents with ADHD

The attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) symptom presentation of young adolescents with ADHD was examined in association with the transition to middle school. This study used data collected in the Multimodal Treatment Study of ADHD, which included children between 7 and 9 years of age with a diagnosis of ADHD (n=258) and grade- and sex-matched controls (n=112). The trajectory of ADHD symptoms before, during, and after the transition to middle school was modeled using hierarchical linear modeling. A clear developmental reduction in ADHD symptomatology was observed for all three ADHD symptom domains. For young adolescents with ADHD, the transition to middle school was associated with a disruption in the developmental decline of inattention, hyperactivity, and impulsivity symptoms as measured by parent ratings. This effect was also observed for teacher ratings of inattention and hyperactivity. These results support the assertion that the environmental changes associated with transitioning to middle school coincide with a transient reversal in ADHD symptom decline among children with ADHD

QED theory of the nuclear recoil effect on the atomic g factor

The quantum electrodynamic theory of the nuclear recoil effect on the atomic g factor to all orders in \alpha Z and to first order in m/M is formulated. The complete \alpha Z-dependence formula for the recoil correction to the bound-electron g factor in a hydrogenlike atom is derived. This formula is used to calculate the recoil correction to the bound-electron g factor in the order (\alpha Z)^2 m/M for an arbitrary state of a hydrogenlike atom.Comment: 17 page

Notes on a paper of Mess

These notes are a companion to the article "Lorentz spacetimes of constant curvature" by Geoffrey Mess, which was first written in 1990 but never published. Mess' paper will appear together with these notes in a forthcoming issue of Geometriae Dedicata.Comment: 26 page

Assessing Big-Bang Nucleosynthesis

Systematic uncertainties in the light-element abundances and their evolution make a rigorous statistical assessment difficult. However, using Bayesian methods we show that the following statement is robust: the predicted and measured abundances are consistent with 95\% credibility only if the baryon-to-photon ratio is between $2\times 10^{-10}$ and $6.5\times 10^{-10}$ and the number of light neutrino species is less than 3.9. Our analysis suggests that the $^4$He abundance may have been systematically underestimated.Comment: 7 pages, LaTeX(2.09), 6 postscript figures (attached). A postscript version with figures can be found at ftp://astro.uchicago.edu/pub/astro/copi/assessing_BBN . (See the README file for details

Performance of a computable phenotype for identification of patients with diabetes within PCORnet: The Patient-Centered Clinical Research Network

Purpose: PCORnet, the National Patient-Centered Clinical Research Network, represents an innovative system for the conduct of observational and pragmatic studies. We describe the identification and validation of a retrospective cohort of patients with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) from four PCORnet sites. Methods: We adapted existing computable phenotypes (CP) for the identification of patients with T2DM and evaluated their performance across four PCORnet sites (2012-2016). Patients entered the cohort on the earliest date they met one of three CP categories: (CP1) coded T2DM diagnosis (ICD-9/ICD-10) and an antidiabetic prescription, (CP2) diagnosis and glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) ≥6.5%, or (CP3) an antidiabetic prescription and HbA1c ≥6.5%. We required evidence of health care utilization in each of the 2 prior years for each patient, as we also developed an incident T2DM CP to identify the subset of patients without documentation of T2DM in the 365 days before t 0 . Among a systematic sample of patients, we calculated the positive predictive value (PPV) for the T2DM CP and incident-T2DM CP using electronic health record (EHR) review as reference. Results: The CP identified 50 657 patients with T2DM. The PPV of patients randomly selected for validation was 96.2% (n = 1572; CI:95.1-97.0) and was consistently high across sites. The PPV for the incident-T2DM CP was 5.8% (CI:4.5-7.5). Conclusions: The T2DM CP accurately and efficiently identified patients with T2DM across multiple sites that participate in PCORnet, although the incident T2DM CP requires further study. PCORnet is a valuable data source for future epidemiological and comparative effectiveness research among patients with T2DM

Quality of Life of Caregivers of Older Patients with Advanced Cancer

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the relationships between aging-related domains captured by geriatric assessment (GA) for older patients with advanced cancer and caregivers’ emotional health and quality of life (QOL). DESIGN: In this cross sectional study of baseline data from a nationwide investigation of older patients and their caregivers, patients completed a GA that included validated tests to evaluate eight domains of health (eg, function, cognition). SETTING: Thirty-one community oncology practices throughout the United States. PARTICIPANTS: Enrolled patients were aged 70 and older, had one or more GA domain impaired, and had an incurable solid tumor malignancy or lymphoma. Each could choose one caregiver to enroll. MEASUREMENTS: Caregivers completed the Generalized Anxiety Disorder-7, Distress Thermometer, Patient Health Questionnaire-2 (depression), and Short Form Health Survey-12 (SF-12 for QOL). Separate multivariate linear or logistic regression models were used to examine the association of the number and type of patient GA impairments with caregiver outcomes, controlling for patient and caregiver covariates. RESULTS: A total of 541 patients were enrolled, 414 with a caregiver. Almost half (43.5%) of the caregivers screened positive for distress, 24.4% for anxiety, and 18.9% for depression. Higher numbers of patient GA domain impairments were associated with caregiver depression (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.29; P <.001], caregiver physical health on SF-12 (regression coefficient [β] = −1.24; P <.001), and overall caregiver QOL (β = −1.14; P <.01). Impaired patient function was associated with lower caregiver QOL (β = −4.11; P <.001). Impaired patient nutrition was associated with caregiver depression (aOR = 2.08; P <.01). Lower caregiver age, caregiver comorbidity, and patient distress were also associated with worse caregiver outcomes. CONCLUSION: Patient GA impairments were associated with poorer emotional health and lower QOL of caregivers

Association of Prognostic Understanding with Health Care Use among Older Adults with Advanced Cancer: A Secondary Analysis of a Cluster Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance: A poor prognostic understanding regarding curability is associated with lower odds of hospice use among patients with cancer. However, the association between poor prognostic understanding or prognostic discordance and health care use among older adults with advanced incurable cancers is not well characterized. Objective: To evaluate the association of poor prognostic understanding and patient-oncologist prognostic discordance with hospitalization and hospice use among older adults with advanced cancers. Design, Setting, and Participants: This was a post hoc secondary analysis of a cluster randomized clinical trial that recruited patients from October 29, 2014, to April 28, 2017. Data were collected from community oncology practices affiliated with the University of Rochester Cancer Center National Cancer Institute Community Oncology Research Program. The parent trial enrolled 541 patients who were aged 70 years or older and were receiving or considering any line of cancer treatment for incurable solid tumors or lymphomas; the patients' oncologists and caregivers (if available) were also enrolled. Patients were followed up for at least 1 year. Data were analyzed from January 3 to 16, 2021. Main Outcomes and Measures: At enrollment, patients and oncologists were asked about their beliefs regarding cancer curability (100%, >50%, 50%, 5 years; answers of >5 years reflected poor prognostic understanding). Any difference between oncologist and patient in response options was considered discordant. Outcomes were any hospitalization and hospice use at 6 months captured by the clinical research associates. Results: Among the 541 patients, the mean (SD) age was 76.6 (5.2) years, 264 of 540 (49%) were female, and 486 of 540 (90%) were White. Poor prognostic understanding regarding curability was reported for 59% (206 of 348) of patients, and poor prognostic understanding regarding life expectancy estimates was reported for 41% (205 of 496) of patients. Approximately 60% (202 of 336) of patient-oncologist dyads were discordant regarding curability, and 72% (356 of 492) of patient-oncologist dyads were discordant regarding life expectancy estimates. Poor prognostic understanding regarding life expectancy estimates was associated with lower odds of hospice use (adjusted odds ratio, 0.30; 95% CI, 0.16-0.59). Discordance regarding life expectancy estimates was associated with greater odds of hospitalization (adjusted odds ratio, 1.64; 95% CI, 1.01-2.66). Conclusions and Relevance: This study highlights different constructs of prognostic understanding and the need to better understand the association between prognostic understanding and health care use among older adult patients with advanced cancer. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02107443