Effect of Solar Wind Drag on the Determination of the Properties of Coronal Mass Ejections from Heliospheric Images

The Fixed-\Phi (F\Phi) and Harmonic Mean (HM) fitting methods are two methods to determine the average direction and velocity of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from time-elongation tracks produced by Heliospheric Imagers (HIs), such as the HIs onboard the STEREO spacecraft. Both methods assume a constant velocity in their descriptions of the time-elongation profiles of CMEs, which are used to fit the observed time-elongation data. Here, we analyze the effect of aerodynamic drag on CMEs propagating through interplanetary space, and how this drag affects the result of the F\Phi and HM fitting methods. A simple drag model is used to analytically construct time-elongation profiles which are then fitted with the two methods. It is found that higher angles and velocities give rise to greater error in both methods, reaching errors in the direction of propagation of up to 15 deg and 30 deg for the F\Phi and HM fitting methods, respectively. This is due to the physical accelerations of the CMEs being interpreted as geometrical accelerations by the fitting methods. Because of the geometrical definition of the HM fitting method, it is affected by the acceleration more greatly than the F\Phi fitting method. Overall, we find that both techniques overestimate the initial (and final) velocity and direction for fast CMEs propagating beyond 90 deg from the Sun-spacecraft line, meaning that arrival times at 1 AU would be predicted early (by up to 12 hours). We also find that the direction and arrival time of a wide and decelerating CME can be better reproduced by the F\Phi due to the cancellation of two errors: neglecting the CME width and neglecting the CME deceleration. Overall, the inaccuracies of the two fitting methods are expected to play an important role in the prediction of CME hit and arrival times as we head towards solar maximum and the STEREO spacecraft further move behind the Sun.Comment: Solar Physics, Online First, 17 page

Accuracy and Limitations of Fitting and Stereoscopic Methods to Determine the Direction of Coronal Mass Ejections from Heliospheric Imagers Observations

Using data from the Heliospheric Imagers (HIs) onboard STEREO, it is possible to derive the direction of propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in addition to their speed with a variety of methods. For CMEs observed by both STEREO spacecraft, it is possible to derive their direction using simultaneous observations from the twin spacecraft and also, using observations from only one spacecraft with fitting methods. This makes it possible to test and compare different analyses techniques. In this article, we propose a new fitting method based on observations from one spacecraft, which we compare to the commonly used fitting method of Sheeley et al. (1999). We also compare the results from these two fitting methods with those from two stereoscopic methods, focusing on 12 CMEs observed simultaneously by the two STEREO spacecraft in 2008 and 2009. We find evidence that the fitting method of Sheeley et al. (1999) can result in significant errors in the determination of the CME direction when the CME propagates outside of 60deg \pm 20 deg from the Sun-spacecraft line. We expect our new fitting method to be better adapted to the analysis of halo or limb CMEs with respect to the observing spacecraft. We also find some evidence that direct triangulation in the HI fields-of-view should only be applied to CMEs propagating approximatively towards Earth (\pm 20deg from the Sun-Earth line). Last, we address one of the possible sources of errors of fitting methods: the assumption of radial propagation. Using stereoscopic methods, we find that at least seven of the 12 studied CMEs had an heliospheric deflection of less than 20deg as they propagated in the HI fields-of-view, which, we believe, validates this approximation.Comment: 17 pages, 6 figures, 2 tables, accepted to Solar Physic

Light hadron and diquark spectroscopy in quenched QCD with overlap quarks on a large lattice

A simulation of quenched QCD with the overlap Dirac operator has been completed using 100 Wilson gauge configurations at beta = 6 on an 18^3 x 64 lattice and at beta = 5.85 on a 14^3 x 48 lattice, both in Landau gauge. We present results for light meson and baryon masses, meson final state "wave functions," and other observables, as well as some details on the numerical techniques that were used. Our results indicate that scaling violations, if any, are small. We also present an analysis of diquark correlations using the quark propagators generated in our simulation.Comment: 28 LaTeX pages, 41 figures, v2: minor updates, version published in JHE

Branching and annihilating Levy flights

We consider a system of particles undergoing the branching and annihilating reactions A -> (m+1)A and A + A -> 0, with m even. The particles move via long-range Levy flights, where the probability of moving a distance r decays as r^{-d-sigma}. We analyze this system of branching and annihilating Levy flights (BALF) using field theoretic renormalization group techniques close to the upper critical dimension d_c=sigma, with sigma<2. These results are then compared with Monte-Carlo simulations in d=1. For sigma close to unity in d=1, the critical point for the transition from an absorbing to an active phase occurs at zero branching. However, for sigma bigger than about 3/2 in d=1, the critical branching rate moves smoothly away from zero with increasing sigma, and the transition lies in a different universality class, inaccessible to controlled perturbative expansions. We measure the exponents in both universality classes and examine their behavior as a function of sigma.Comment: 9 pages, 4 figure

Punctuated equilibria and 1/f noise in a biological coevolution model with individual-based dynamics

We present a study by linear stability analysis and large-scale Monte Carlo simulations of a simple model of biological coevolution. Selection is provided through a reproduction probability that contains quenched, random interspecies interactions, while genetic variation is provided through a low mutation rate. Both selection and mutation act on individual organisms. Consistent with some current theories of macroevolutionary dynamics, the model displays intermittent, statistically self-similar behavior with punctuated equilibria. The probability density for the lifetimes of ecological communities is well approximated by a power law with exponent near -2, and the corresponding power spectral densities show 1/f noise (flicker noise) over several decades. The long-lived communities (quasi-steady states) consist of a relatively small number of mutualistically interacting species, and they are surrounded by a ``protection zone'' of closely related genotypes that have a very low probability of invading the resident community. The extent of the protection zone affects the stability of the community in a way analogous to the height of the free-energy barrier surrounding a metastable state in a physical system. Measures of biological diversity are on average stationary with no discernible trends, even over our very long simulation runs of approximately 3.4x10^7 generations.Comment: 20 pages RevTex. Minor revisions consistent with published versio

Heat kernel regularization of the effective action for stochastic reaction-diffusion equations

The presence of fluctuations and non-linear interactions can lead to scale dependence in the parameters appearing in stochastic differential equations. Stochastic dynamics can be formulated in terms of functional integrals. In this paper we apply the heat kernel method to study the short distance renormalizability of a stochastic (polynomial) reaction-diffusion equation with real additive noise. We calculate the one-loop {\emph{effective action}} and its ultraviolet scale dependent divergences. We show that for white noise a polynomial reaction-diffusion equation is one-loop {\emph{finite}} in $d=0$ and $d=1$, and is one-loop renormalizable in $d=2$ and $d=3$ space dimensions. We obtain the one-loop renormalization group equations and find they run with scale only in $d=2$.Comment: 21 pages, uses ReV-TeX 3.

End-stage renal disease in Canada: prevalence projections to 2005

BACKGROUND: The incidence and prevalence of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) have increased greatly in Canada over the last 2 decades. Because of the high cost of therapy, predicting numbers of patients who will require dialysis and transplantation is necessary for nephrologists and health care planners. METHODS: The authors projected ESRD incidence rates and therapy-specific prevalence by province to the year 2005 using 1981-1996 data obtained from the Canadian Organ Replacement Register. The model incorporated Poisson regression to project incidence rates, and a Markov model for patient follow-up. RESULTS: Continued large increases in ESRD incidence and prevalence were projected, particularly among people with diabetes mellitus. As of Dec. 31, 1996, there were 17,807 patients receiving renal replacement therapy in Canada. This number was projected to climb to 32,952 by the end of 2005, for a relative increase of 85% and a mean annual increase of 5.8%. The increased prevalence was projected to be greatest for peritoneal dialysis (6.0% annually), followed by hemodialysis (5.9%) and functioning kidney transplant (5.7%). The projected annual increases in prevalence by province ranged from 4.4%, in Saskatchewan, to 7.5%, in Alberta. INTERPRETATION: The projected increases are plausible when one considers that the incidence of ESRD per million population in the United States and other countries far exceeds that in Canada. The authors predict a continued and increasing short-fall in resources to accommodate the expected increased in ESRD prevalence

Speeds and arrival times of solar transients approximated by self-similar expanding circular fronts

The NASA STEREO mission opened up the possibility to forecast the arrival times, speeds and directions of solar transients from outside the Sun-Earth line. In particular, we are interested in predicting potentially geo-effective Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICMEs) from observations of density structures at large observation angles from the Sun (with the STEREO Heliospheric Imager instrument). We contribute to this endeavor by deriving analytical formulas concerning a geometric correction for the ICME speed and arrival time for the technique introduced by Davies et al. (2012, ApJ, in press) called Self-Similar Expansion Fitting (SSEF). This model assumes that a circle propagates outward, along a plane specified by a position angle (e.g. the ecliptic), with constant angular half width (lambda). This is an extension to earlier, more simple models: Fixed-Phi-Fitting (lambda = 0 degree) and Harmonic Mean Fitting (lambda = 90 degree). This approach has the advantage that it is possible to assess clearly, in contrast to previous models, if a particular location in the heliosphere, such as a planet or spacecraft, might be expected to be hit by the ICME front. Our correction formulas are especially significant for glancing hits, where small differences in the direction greatly influence the expected speeds (up to 100-200 km/s) and arrival times (up to two days later than the apex). For very wide ICMEs (2 lambda > 120 degree), the geometric correction becomes very similar to the one derived by M\"ostl et al. (2011, ApJ, 741, id. 34) for the Harmonic Mean model. These analytic expressions can also be used for empirical or analytical models to predict the 1 AU arrival time of an ICME by correcting for effects of hits by the flank rather than the apex, if the width and direction of the ICME in a plane are known and a circular geometry of the ICME front is assumed.Comment: 15 pages, 5 figures, accepted for publication in "Solar Physics

Zero-point vacancies in quantum solids

A Jastrow wave function (JWF) and a shadow wave function (SWF) describe a quantum solid with Bose--Einstein condensate; i.e. a supersolid. It is known that both JWF and SWF describe a quantum solid with also a finite equilibrium concentration of vacancies x_v. We outline a route for estimating x_v by exploiting the existing formal equivalence between the absolute square of the ground state wave function and the Boltzmann weight of a classical solid. We compute x_v for the quantum solids described by JWF and SWF employing very accurate numerical techniques. For JWF we find a very small value for the zero point vacancy concentration, x_v=(1.4\pm0.1) x 10^-6. For SWF, which presently gives the best variational description of solid 4He, we find the significantly larger value x_v=(1.4\pm0.1) x 10^-3 at a density close to melting. We also study two and three vacancies. We find that there is a strong short range attraction but the vacancies do not form a bound state.Comment: 19 pages, submitted to J. Low Temp. Phy

Transport by molecular motors in the presence of static defects

The transport by molecular motors along cytoskeletal filaments is studied theoretically in the presence of static defects. The movements of single motors are described as biased random walks along the filament as well as binding to and unbinding from the filament. Three basic types of defects are distinguished, which differ from normal filament sites only in one of the motors' transition probabilities. Both stepping defects with a reduced probability for forward steps and unbinding defects with an increased probability for motor unbinding strongly reduce the velocities and the run lengths of the motors with increasing defect density. For transport by single motors, binding defects with a reduced probability for motor binding have a relatively small effect on the transport properties. For cargo transport by motors teams, binding defects also change the effective unbinding rate of the cargo particles and are expected to have a stronger effect.Comment: 20 pages, latex, 7 figures, 1 tabl