Climate change amplifies plant invasion hotspots in Nepal

Aim Climate change has increased the risk of biological invasions, particularly by increasing the climatically suitable regions for invasive alien species. The distribution of many native and invasive species has been predicted to change under future climate. We performed species distribution modelling of invasive alien plants (IAPs) to identify hotspots under current and future climate scenarios in Nepal, a country ranked among the most vulnerable countries to biological invasions and climate change in the world. Location Nepal. Methods We predicted climatically suitable niches of 24 out of the total 26 reported IAPs in Nepal under current and future climate (2050 for RCP 6.0) using an ensemble of species distribution models. We also conducted hotspot analysis to highlight the geographic hotspots for IAPs in different climatic zones, land cover, ecoregions, physiography and federal states. Results Under future climate, climatically suitable regions for 75% of IAPs will expand in contrast to a contraction of the climatically suitable regions for the remaining 25% of the IAPs. A high proportion of the modelled suitable niches of IAPs occurred on agricultural lands followed by forests. In aggregation, both extent and intensity (invasion hotspots) of the climatically suitable regions for IAPs will increase in Nepal under future climate scenarios. The invasion hotspots will expand towards the high‐elevation mountainous regions. In these regions, land use is rapidly transforming due to the development of infrastructure and expansion of tourism and trade. Main conclusions Negative impacts on livelihood, biodiversity and ecosystem services, as well as economic loss caused by IAPs in the future, may be amplified if preventive and control measures are not immediately initiated. Therefore, the management of IAPs in Nepal should account for the vulnerability of climate change‐induced biological invasions into new areas, primarily in the mountains

An analysis of factors linked to the decline in maternal mortality in Nepal

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Assessment of long-term energy scenarios for New South Wales (NSW)

University of Technology, Sydney. Faculty of Engineering.This research analyses the economy-wide impacts of three energy scenarios (Base, Moderate and Advanced) for NSW for the period 2000-2040. These scenarios represent a suite of energy policy measures that the state could adopt in order to achieve its energy, environmental and economic goals. The Base scenario largely reflects the continuation of the current policy trends. In the Moderate and Advanced scenarios, CO2 emissions, in the year 2040, are restricted to 8 percent above, and 25 percent below, the 1990 levels, respectively. The scenario impacts are analysed in this research using a modelling framework that combines an optimisation-based energy sector model (MARKAL model) and an energy-oriented input- output economic model. The energy impacts are analysed in terms of how the state's primary and final energy requirements would evolve in response to alternative scenario-specific policies. And, the economic impact analysis focuses on how would such evolution affect sectoral outputs, wages and salaries, employment, and energy and CO2 intensities. The analysis suggests that a continuation of current policy trends (Base scenario) would result, by 2040, in a doubling of primary energy requirements, 80 percent increase in CO2 emissions, and a markedly increased dependency on imported oil. The CO2- restricting policies specific to the Moderate and Advanced scenarios could however result in significantly lower primary energy requirements - approximately 17 and 28 percent, respectively, below the Base level. Further, the economy wide impacts of these reduced energy requirements are likely to be minimal at the aggregate (State) level. For example, the Gross State Product, wages and salaries, and employment in 2040 would be lower by merely 0.28, 0.09 and 0.003 percent, respectively, in the Moderate scenario as compared with the Base scenario. These impacts at disaggregated (sectoral) levels would, however, be rather significant and mixed. The main beneficiaries, for example, in terms of wages and salaries and employment, would be the agriculture, other equipment, and construction sectors, and the main losers would be electricity, coal, and petroleum sectors. This shows the importance - in a policy context - of undertaking disaggregated analysis and the pitfalls of basing policy decisions on aggregate analyses alone. Such disaggregate analysis also makes transparent the inter- and intra-sectoral linkages and provides more robust bases for developing trade-offs and compromises to achieve desirable policy outcomes

Correlated bosons in a one-dimensional optical lattice: Effects of the trapping potential and of quasiperiodic disorder

We investigate the effect of the trapping potential on the quantum phases of strongly correlated ultracold bosons in one-dimensional periodic and quasiperiodic optical lattices. By means of a decoupling meanfield approach, we characterize the ground state of the system and its behavior under variation of the harmonic trapping, as a function of the total number of atoms. For a small atom number the system shows an incompressible Mott-insulating phase, as the size of the cloud remains unaffected when the trapping potential is varied. When the quasiperiodic potential is added the system develops a metastable-disordered phase which is neither compressible nor Mott insulating. This state is characteristic of quasidisorder in the presence of a strong trapping potential.Comment: Accepted for publication in PR

Does the Informal Sector Thrive Under Democracy or Autocracy?: The Case of Nepal

Our paper investigates the size and development of the informal sector in Nepal using aggregate data over the period 1991 to 2009. Our estimation using the Multiple Indicator Multiple Cause (MIMIC) model shows that the average size of the informal sector has been about 44%. Nepal has been classified as having a hybrid political regime, so we show the effect that autocracy and democracy has had on the growth of the informal sector. Our results shows that a high degree of autocracy reduced the size of the informal sector by about 2% while greater direct democracy reduced the informal sector by about 10%

Behaviour of steel end plate bolted beam-to-column joints

This paper presents a numerical investigation into moment-rotation behaviour of extended, flush, and partial depth end-plate joints. Two types of steel beam-to-column joints are modelled: I-beam (IPE) to H-column (HEB) and PFC-beam (UPE) to SHS-column. The joints are designed as a single cantilever beam-to-column joint configuration. The connection details are in accordance with Eurocode 3 part 1-8 and SCI guides P358 (Simple joints) and P398 (Moment joints). Three-dimensional finite element modelling of the joints is car-ried out using ABAQUS. The numerical results are validated against experiments. Both material and geo-metric nonlinearities are considered. All joints are classified according to their stiffness as per Eurocode 3. The failure modes of different joint configurations are determined and compared with the experiments. The key contribution of this paper comes from stiffness analysis of the joints, characterisation of the joints as per EC3 and modelling nonlinear behaviour of the joints

Space, Government Payments, and Off-Farm Labor Response of Principal Farm Operators: A County-Level Analysis

We examine the effects of space and government payments on off-farm employment among principal farm operators for the entire US as well as for ERS/USDA farm resource regions. Spatial dependency in off-farm employment of principal farm operators in the U.S. overall is evident; however, this is not the case for all farm resource regions. While the effects of government payments overall are significant for the U.S., important variations exist by farm program type and across ERS/USDA regions.government payments, off-farm employment, off-farm labor supply, spatial dependence, ERS regions, Farm Management,

Maternal Human Capital and Childhood Stunting In Nepal: A Multi-Level Modeling Approach

Childhood stunting among preschool-age children stands as a serious public health problem to be addressed in Nepal. Applying the multi-level modeling approach to nationally representative data, in the overall, we provide evidence that the negative influence of maternal own education to childhood stunting occurs especially for mother's higher level of education, but there exists substantial residential variations. Most interestingly, we provide new evidence of a strong negative community externality of maternal education on childhood stunting, even if mothers of children are uneducated. We also find mother's height is negatively related to childhood stunting, regardless of mother's educational attainment and place of residence, providing evidence of intergenerational transmission of maternal health.Health Economics and Policy, Labor and Human Capital,

Soil Chemical Properties Under Conservation Agriculture and Cereal-Based Cropping System in Eastern Tarai of Nepal

Field experiments were conducted for four years (2014-2017) at five locations namely Salbani, Bhokraha, Simariya, Bhaluwa and Kaptanganj of Sunsari district to assess the changes in soil chemical properties under conservation agriculture (CA)-based practices in two cropping systems namely rice-kidney bean-maize at Salbani and rice-wheat at rest of the locations. In rice-wheat cropping system, there were four treatments: (1) conventional tillage (CT) for rice transplantation and subsequent wheat sowing, (2) conventional tillage rice transplantation followed by zero tillage (ZT) wheat, (3) unpuddled rice transplantation followed by zero tillage wheat, (4) zero tillage in both rice and wheat. Similarly, in rice-kidney bean-maize cropping system, there were four treatments; (1) conventional tillage for rice transplantation and sowing of both kidney bean and maize, (2) conventional tillage rice transplantation followed by zero tillage in both kidney bean and maize, (3) unpuddled rice transplantation followed by zero tillage in both kidney bean and maize, (4) zero tillage in all three crops. Soil samples were taken at initial and every year after rice harvest.The soil samples were analyzed for total nitrogen, available phosphorus, available potassium, pH and soil organic matter.Total nitrogen (N) showed a slightly decreasing trend in the first three years and showed a slight increase at the end of experiment under ZT in all locations. The total N under ZT changed from 0.12 to 0.13%, 0.05 to 0.06%, 0.10 to 0.12%, 0.11 to 0.08% and 0.09 to 0.13% in Salbani, Bhokraha, Simariya, Bhaluwa and Kaptanganj, respectively.  All locations showed the positive values of available potassium; Salbani  revealing considerable change of 64.3 to 78.5 mg/kg in CT while 68.4 to 73.3 mg/kg in ZT condition. The treatment where rice was transplanted in unpuddled condition and zero tilled to wheat, had a mean value of available phosphorus and potassium as 87.3 and 81.9 mg/kg respectively. Soil pH ranged from 4.8 to 7.1 in CT while it was 5.2 to 6.8 in ZT across the locations. The change in soil organic matter in CT of all locations except Salbani was narrower as compared to ZT