Introduction to Dynamic Linear Models for Time Series Analysis

Dynamic linear models (DLM) offer a very generic framework to analyse time series data. Many classical time series models can be formulated as DLMs, including ARMA models and standard multiple linear regression models. The models can be seen as general regression models where the coefficients can vary in time. In addition, they allow for a state space representation and a formulation as hierarchical statistical models, which in turn is the key for efficient estimation by Kalman formulas and by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. A dynamic linear model can handle non-stationary processes, missing values and non-uniform sampling as well as observations with varying accuracies. This chapter gives an introduction to DLM and shows how to build various useful models for analysing trends and other sources of variability in geodetic time series.Comment: A chapter submitted to a book with a proposed title: Geodetic Time Series Analysis and Applications, editors. J.-P. Montillet and M. Bo

Hemispheric Asymmetry and Stress Exposure Model in a Professional Evaluation Situation

The urgency of the study on the system of psychophysiological and psychological (temperamental and personal) factors of stress exposure in a situation of professional evaluation of the subjects is considered. The results of the empirical study of stress factors including psychophysiological, temperological and personal characteristics of the subjects are given. The analysis is made with the use of hardware–software system ‘Aktivatsiometr 9К’ by Y.А. Tsagarelli to detect psychophysiological parameters (functional hemispheric asymmetry, activation of the brain hemispheres, strength and lability of the nervous system), «Structure of temperament questionary» by V.М. Rusalov, and diagnosis of the strategic options for choosing a life journey ofthe ‘Typology of Personal Choice’ by V.G. Gryazeva-Dobshinskaya and A.S. Maltseva. Individually typological, as well as dynamic and activity-situational (in a situation of professional evaluation) characteristics of activation and hemispheric asymmetry of the subjects are calculated. Stress reaction is detected, provided individual-typological and activity situational characteristics of activation of the subjects differ by more than 1.5 times. Fifty-six senior students aging between 20 and 25 are the sample of the analysis. The sample is divided into two groups in accordance with the response to the situation of assessment of professional competence: group 1 (n1 = 19 people) with a detected stress reaction, group 2 (n1 = 37 people), in which the stress reactionis not detected. The correctness of the obtained differentiation in the groups of students, differing in the system of indicators of psychophysiological, temperological and personal characteristics is proved with the help of discriminate analysis. The model of stress exposure in a situation of professional evaluation is developed. Keywords: functional hemispheric asymmetry, everyday stress, professional evaluation, temperamental characteristics, personal choic

Improvement of Calculation Methods for Heat Transfer Factor in Iron Ore Pellet Bed

For the sake of improving the calculation procedure for heat transfer in metallurgical unit dense beds a number of experiments has been carried out that allow adjustment of the heat transfer factor between the gas flow and the pellets in the course of heating. In the course of analysis, a permanent channeling flow was detected in thepellet bed at Re = 100 – 1400. The heat transfer factor was calculated and the pellet temperature was determined in the course of heating within ± 11.4∘C. Keywords: heat transfer in bed, pellet firing, dense bed, heat transfer factor, hydrodynamic resistance, gas flo

Isoperiodic deformations of the acoustic operator and periodic solutions of the Harry Dym equation

We consider the problem of describing the possible spectra of an acoustic operator with a periodic finite-gap density. We construct flows on the moduli space of algebraic Riemann surfaces that preserve the periods of the corresponding operator. By a suitable extension of the phase space, these equations can be written with quadratic irrationalities.Comment: 15 page

Model testing of radioactive contamination Cs-137 of soils and bottom sediments in the Romachka river (Tomsk region, Russia)

This paper presents results of testing models for the radioactive contamination of river water and bottom sediments by 137Cs. The scenario for the model testing is based on data from the Romashka River, which was contaminated as a result of accidents at the Siberian Chemical Combine (Russia, Region of Tomsk). The input data include the following: estimates of inventories of 137Cs in the floodplain of the downstream part of Romashka River; the estimated annual runoff of 137Cs from the downstream part of Romachka River; data on the precipitation, hydrological and hydrochemical characteristics of the river. The endpoints of the scenario are model predictions of the activity concentrations of 137Cs in water and bottom sediments along the Romachka River in 2012-2013. Calculations for the Romashka scenario were performed by the Institute of radioprotection and nuclear safety (model CASTEAUR and HAMSTER. As a whole, the radionuclide predictions for137Cs for all considered models. At the same time the CASTEAUR model estimate the activity concentrations of 137Cs and in water more precisely than in bottom sediments

Lignosulfonate, anionic surfactants and their mixtures influence on water solutions surface tension and zinc concentrate pressure leaching

The formation of elemental sulfur during sulfide concentrate pressure leaching leads to the appearance of sulfur-sulfide granules, which significantly reduces zinc dissolution rate. The solution for this problem was the use of surfactants, which prevents the negative effect of molten sulfur, avoiding the granule formation during leaching. Lignosulfonates (waste from the woodworking industry) are most often used as reagents for sulfide concentrate pressure leaching. Influence of individual and mixtures of surfactants on surface tension of aqueous solutions, zinc extraction and size-grade distribution of cakes after sulfide zinc concentrate pressure leaching. Surface tension of aqueous solutions was analyzed by stalagmometric method. Leaching was performed in titanium autoclave in presence of lignosulfonate, sodium dodecylbenzenesulfonate and sodium dodecylsulfate. Solutions after leaching were analyzed on zinc by atomic absorption spectroscopy. Size-grade analysis of cakes after leaching was carried out by laser diffraction particle size analyzer. In this work, synergetic influence was observed of anionic surfactants and lignosulfonate on decreasing of aqueous solutions surface tension. The best results were obtained when LS-SDBS mixture was used, namely in the range of sodium dodecylbenzenesulfonate concentrations 400-600 mg / l. Usage of combined surfactants allowed to achieve high rates of zinc extraction and optimal particle size of cakes after leaching. At Ls and SDBS using zinc extraction was increased from 77,2 % up to 82,8 %, with the bulk of the cake (96,7%) having a particle size of-150 μm. Combined surfactants usage (lignosulfonate and sodium dodecylbenzenesulfonate) can be recommended for applying at pressure leaching of sulfide zinc concentrates. © Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd.Leaching experiments and grade size analysis were conducted at the expense of the Russian Science Foundation grant (project No. 18-19-00186)

Tariffs Formation on oil transportation

Oil transportation via trunk pipelines is an important part of the oil industry's activity. The main instrument of tariff regulation is the method of tariffs formation. Three methods of tariffs formation such as the method of economically justified costs (the Cost plus method), the method of economically justified return on investment capital (the RAB method), and the method of tariffs indexation were considered

Geotechnical properties of gullying in Tomsk Oblast

The article deals with causes, conditions and factors of gullying in Tomsk Oblast, the case of site Grodnenskaya. A nuclear-power station was planned to be constructed in Closed Administrative Territorial Unit Seversk, which led to geotechnical investigation of the area to study the geological processes developing there. The investigation included reconnaissance traverse of the area, geological and geomorphic descriptions, and sampling. The area and percentage of the territory affected by the geological processes were estimated. As a result, it was proved that the geological processes of the area are conditioned by surface water activity leading to gullying and river erosion, and by both ground water and surface water activity resulting in bog formation. It appears that gullying is caused not only by natural factors but also by technogenic ones