Fiscal Policy Design in Low-Income Countries

Fiscal policy, Macro-economic stabilization, Sub-Saharan Africa

Exchange Rate Regimes and Revenue Performance in Sub-Saharan Africa

It has been argued that the institutions of the CFA Franc zone may have reduced inflation but that they also induced misalignment of the real exchange rate and that this is the explanation for their dismal revenue performance. This paper uses a panel of 22 countries in sub-Saharan Africa to estimate revenue performance over the period from 1980 to 1996. It finds that the poor cumulative relative revenue performance of the franc zone countries is mainly attributable to differences in environmental and structural factors, and to their different responses to changes in the equilibrium real exchange rate, but that the misalignment of the real exchange rate also played a part.

Glacier dynamics over the last quarter of a century at Helheim, Kangerdlugssuaq and 14 other major Greenland outlet glaciers

The Greenland ice sheet is experiencing increasing rates of mass loss, the majority of which results from changes in discharge from tidewater glaciers. Both atmospheric and ocean drivers have been implicated in these dynamic changes, but understanding the nature of the response has been hampered by the lack of measurements of glacier flow rates predating the recent period of warming. Here, using Landsat-5 data from 1985 onwards, we extend back in time the record of surface velocities and ice-front position for 16 of Greenland's fastest-flowing tidewater glaciers, and compare these to more recent data from Landsat-7 and satellite-borne synthetic-aperture radar. Climate re-analysis data and sea surface temperatures from 1982 show that since 1995 most of Greenland and its surrounding oceans have experienced significant overall warming, and a switch to a warming trend. During the period from 1985 to 1995 when Greenland and the surrounding oceans were not warming, major tidewater outlet glaciers around Greenland, including Kangerdlugssuaq and Helheim, were dynamically stable. Since the mid-1990s, glacier discharge has consistently been both greater and more variable. Together, these observations support the hypothesis that recent dynamic change is a rapid response to climate forcing. Both air and ocean temperatures in this region are predicted to continue to warm, and will therefore likely drive further change in outlet glacier discharge

Study of the acoustic signature of UHE neutrino interactions in water and ice

The production of acoustic signals from the interactions of ultra-high energy (UHE) cosmic ray neutrinos in water and ice has been studied. A new computationally fast and efficient method of deriving the signal is presented. This method allows the implementation of up to date parameterisations of acoustic attenuation in sea water and ice that now includes the effects of complex attenuation, where appropriate. The methods presented here have been used to compute and study the properties of the acoustic signals which would be expected from such interactions. A matrix method of parameterising the signals, which includes the expected fluctuations, is also presented. These methods are used to generate the expected signals that would be detected in acoustic UHE neutrino telescopes.Comment: 21 pages and 13 figure

Romantic Partner Interference and Psychological Reactance in the Context of Caregiving for an Aging Family Member

Negotiating romantic relational dynamics is inherent to family caregiving situations, which continue to be on the rise in the United States. However, despite evidence that family caregiving duties are linked to a variety of negative relational outcomes, limited research examines communication processes that contribute to or alleviate the burden of caregiver duties on romantic relationships. Guided by psychological reactance theory (PRT), this study examined the link between romantic partner interference with family caregiving duties and the reactance process, as well as directness of communication about irritation as a type of freedom restoration behavior associated with reactance. Adults caring for aging family members recruited from MTurk (N = 187) completed an online survey as part of a larger study of romantic partner communication surrounding family caregiving. Results using PROCESS serial mediation indicated that greater partner interference was related to heightened perceptions of freedom threat, which was positively associated with the experience of reactance, which in turn was associated with communication about irritation. However, the association between reactance and directness of communication about irritation was negative, the opposite direction of what was hypothesized. Implications for PRT and interventions with caregivers and their romantic partners are discussed

Accelerated discharge of patients in the event of a major incident: observational study of a teaching hospital

BACKGROUND: Since October 2002 in the UK Primary Care Trusts (PCTs) have had statutory responsibility for having and maintaining a Major Incident plan and since 2005 they have been obliged to co-operate with other responders to an incident. We aimed to establish the number of beds in our Trust which could be freed up over set periods of time in the event of a major incident and the nature and quantity of support which might be required from PCTs in order to achieve this. METHODS: Repeated survey over 12 days in 3 months of hospital bed occupancy by type of condition and discharge capacity in an 855-bed UK tertiary teaching hospital also providing secondary care services. Outcome measures were bed spaces which could be generated, timescale over which this could happen and level and type of PCT support which would be required to achieve this. RESULTS: Mean beds available were 78 immediately, a further 69 in 1–4 hours and a further 155 in 4–12 hours, generating a total of 302 beds (36% of hospital capacity) within 12 hours of an incident. This would require support from a PCT of 150,000 population of 10 nursing care beds, 20 therapy-supported intermediate care beds, and 25 care packages in patients' own homes. CONCLUSION: In order to fulfill the requirements of the Civil Contingencies Act 2004, PCTs should plan to have surge capacity in the order of 30 residential placements and 25 community support packages per 150,000 population to support Acute Trusts in the event of a major incident

Amundsen Sea Embayment ice-sheet mass-loss predictions to 2050 calibrated using observations of velocity and elevation change

Mass loss from the Amundsen Sea Embayment of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is a major contributor to global sea-level rise (SLR) and has been increasing over recent decades. Predictions of future SLR are increasingly modelled using ensembles of simulations within which model parameters and external forcings are varied within credible ranges. Accurately reporting the uncertainty associated with these predictions is crucial in enabling effective planning for, and construction of defences against, rising sea levels. Calibrating model simulations against current observations of ice-sheet behaviour enables the uncertainty to be reduced. Here we calibrate an ensemble of BISICLES ice-sheet model simulations of ice loss from the Amundsen Sea Embayment using remotely sensed observations of surface elevation and ice speed. Each calibration type is shown to be capable of reducing the 90% credibility bounds of predicted contributions to SLR by 34 and 43% respectively

Health Risk Perceptions Are Associated with Domestic Use of Basic Water and Sanitation Services—Evidence from Rural Ethiopia

We examine factors associated with the use of basic water supply and sanitation services as part of an integrated community-based nutrition programme which included a drinking water, sanitation and hygiene (WaSH) intervention and emphasise findings related to health risk perceptions. Data were collected from 2658 households in four regions in Ethiopia with a cross-sectional survey in WaSH intervention areas, as well as in control areas, where the intervention was not implemented. The data were analysed using bivariate and multivariable regression analysis. Awareness of health risk factors related to inadequate WaSH was high in the programme area. The use of basic water and sanitation services was associated with several health risk perceptions: Perceiving water quality as good increased the odds of using basic water services as opposed to believing the water quality was poor (OR 3.94; CI 3.06–5.08; p ≤ 0.001). Believing that drinking unsafe water was the main cause for diarrhoea increased the odds of using basic water services (OR 1.48; CI 1.20–1.81; p ≤ 0.001). In the WaSH intervention group, the use of basic sanitation was more likely than in the control group. The use of basic sanitation was associated with households who had previously received sanitation training, as opposed to such who had not (OR 1.55; CI 1.22–1.97; p ≤ 0.001). Perceiving dirty space as the main cause of diarrhoea (OR 1.81; CI 1.50–2.19; p ≤ 0.001), and privacy when using a latrine (OR 2.00; CI 1.67–2.40; p ≤ 0.001), were associated with higher odds of using basic sanitation. Households that indicated a disadvantage of owning a latrine was maintenance costs were less likely to use basic sanitation (OR 0.49; CI 0.38–0.63; p ≤ 0.001). Risk perceptions were important determinants of use of basic services. The findings point to risk perceptions motivating the application of positive WaSH-related and health-protective behaviours. This suggests that well-designed health risk communication strategies may be effective for engaging households in healthy WaSH behaviour

Chemical formation of hybrid di-nitrogen calls fungal codenitrification into question

Removal of excess nitrogen (N) can best be achieved through denitrification processes that transform N in water and terrestrial ecosystems to di-nitrogen (N-2) gas. The greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N2O) is considered an intermediate or end-product in denitrification pathways. Both abiotic and biotic denitrification processes use a single N source to form N2O. However, N-2 can be formed from two distinct N sources (known as hybrid N-2) through biologically mediated processes of anammox and codenitrification. We questioned if hybrid N-2 produced during fungal incubation at neutral pH could be attributed to abiotic nitrosation and if N2O was consumed during N-2 formation. Experiments with gas chromatography indicated N-2 was formed in the presence of live and dead fungi and in the absence of fungi, while N2O steadily increased. We used isotope pairing techniques and confirmed abiotic production of hybrid N-2 under both anoxic and 20% O-2 atmosphere conditions. Our findings question the assumptions that (1) N2O is an intermediate required for N-2 formation, (2) production of N-2 and N2O requires anaerobiosis, and (3) hybrid N-2 is evidence of codenitrification and/ or anammox. The N cycle framework should include abiotic production of N-2

Vortex vs spinning string: Iordanskii force and gravitational Aharonov-Bohm effect

We discuss the transverse force acting on the spinning cosmic string, moving in the background matter. It comes from the gravitational Aharonov-Bohm effect and corresponds to the Iordanskii force acting on the vortex in superfluids, when the vortex moves with respect to the normal component of the liquid.Comment: Latex file, 9 pages, no figures, references are added, version submitted to JETP Let