Views and experiences of men who have sex with men on the ban on blood donation: a cross sectional survey with qualitative interviews.

OBJECTIVE: To explore compliance with the UK blood services' criterion that excludes men who have had penetrative sex with a man from donating blood, and to assess the possible effects of revising this policy. DESIGN: A random location, cross sectional survey followed by qualitative interviews. SETTING: Britain. PARTICIPANTS: 1028 of 32,373 men in the general population reporting any male sexual contact completed the survey. Additional questions were asked of a general population sample (n=3914). Thirty men who had had penetrative sex with a man participated in the qualitative interviews (19 who had complied with the blood services' exclusion criterion and 11 who had not complied). Main outcome measure Compliance with the blood services' lifetime exclusion criterion for men who have had penetrative sex with a man. RESULTS: 10.6% of men with experience of penetrative sex with a man reported having donated blood in Britain while ineligible under the exclusion criterion, and 2.5% had donated in the previous 12 months. Ineligible donation was less common among men who had had penetrative sex with a man recently (in previous 12 months) than among men for whom this last occurred longer ago. Reasons for non-compliance with the exclusion included self categorisation as low risk, discounting the sexual experience that barred donation, belief in the infallibility of blood screening, concerns about confidentiality, and misunderstanding or perceived inequity of the rule. Although blood donation was rarely viewed as a "right," potential donors were seen as entitled to a considered assessment of risk. A one year deferral since last male penetrative sex was considered by study participants to be generally feasible, equitable, and acceptable. CONCLUSIONS: A minority of men who have sex with men who are ineligible to donate blood under the current donor exclusion in Britain have nevertheless done so in the past 12 months. Many of the reasons identified for non-compliance seem amenable to intervention. A clearly rationalised and communicated one year donor deferral is likely to be welcomed by most men who have sex with men

Detectability of atmospheric features of Earth-like planets in the habitable zone around M dwarfs

We investigate the detectability of atmospheric spectral features of Earth-like planets in the habitable zone (HZ) around M dwarfs with the future James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). We use a coupled 1D climate-chemistry-model to simulate the influence of a range of observed and modelled M-dwarf spectra on Earth-like planets. The simulated atmospheres served as input for the calculation of the transmission spectra of the hypothetical planets, using a line-by-line spectral radiative transfer model. To investigate the spectroscopic detectability of absorption bands with JWST we further developed a signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) model and applied it to our transmission spectra. High abundances of CH$_4$ and H$_2$O in the atmosphere of Earth-like planets around mid to late M dwarfs increase the detectability of the corresponding spectral features compared to early M-dwarf planets. Increased temperatures in the middle atmosphere of mid- to late-type M-dwarf planets expand the atmosphere and further increase the detectability of absorption bands. To detect CH$_4$, H$_2$O, and CO$_2$ in the atmosphere of an Earth-like planet around a mid to late M dwarf observing only one transit with JWST could be enough up to a distance of 4 pc and less than ten transits up to a distance of 10 pc. As a consequence of saturation limits of JWST and less pronounced absorption bands, the detection of spectral features of hypothetical Earth-like planets around most early M dwarfs would require more than ten transits. We identify 276 existing M dwarfs (including GJ 1132, TRAPPIST-1, GJ 1214, and LHS 1140) around which atmospheric absorption features of hypothetical Earth-like planets could be detected by co-adding just a few transits. We show that using transmission spectroscopy, JWST could provide enough precision to be able to partly characterise the atmosphere of Earth-like TESS planets around mid to late M dwarfs.Comment: 18 pages, 10 figure

Urban Cholera transmission hotspots and their implications for Reactive Vaccination: evidence from Bissau city, Guinea Bissau

Use of cholera vaccines in response to epidemics (reactive vaccination) may provide an effective supplement to traditional control measures. In Haiti, reactive vaccination was considered but, until recently, rejected in part due to limited global supply of vaccine. Using Bissau City, Guinea-Bissau as a case study, we explore neighborhood-level transmission dynamics to understand if, with limited vaccine and likely delays, reactive vaccination can significantly change the course of a cholera epidemic

The extrasolar planet Gliese 581 d: a potentially habitable planet? (Corrigendum to arXiv:1009.5814)

We report here that the equation for H2O Rayleigh scattering was incorrectly stated in the original paper [arXiv:1009.5814]. Instead of a quadratic dependence on refractivity r, we accidentally quoted an r^4 dependence. Since the correct form of the equation was implemented into the model, scientific results are not affected.Comment: accepted to Astronomy&Astrophysic

Clouds in the atmospheres of extrasolar planets. I. Climatic effects of multi-layered clouds for Earth-like planets and implications for habitable zones

The effects of multi-layered clouds in the atmospheres of Earth-like planets orbiting different types of stars are studied. The radiative effects of cloud particles are directly correlated with their wavelength-dependent optical properties. Therefore the incident stellar spectra may play an important role for the climatic effect of clouds. We discuss the influence of clouds with mean properties measured in the Earth's atmosphere on the surface temperatures and Bond albedos of Earth-like planets orbiting different types of main sequence dwarf stars.Comment: accepted for publication in A&

Model diagnostics and refinement for phylodynamic models

<div><p>Phylodynamic modelling, which studies the joint dynamics of epidemiological and evolutionary processes, has made significant progress in recent years due to increasingly available genomic data and advances in statistical modelling. These advances have greatly improved our understanding of transmission dynamics of many important pathogens. Nevertheless, there remains a lack of effective, targetted diagnostic tools for systematically detecting model mis-specification. Development of such tools is essential for model criticism, refinement, and calibration. The idea of utilising <i>latent residuals</i> for model assessment has already been exploited in general spatio-temporal epidemiological settings. Specifically, by proposing appropriately designed non-centered, re-parameterizations of a given epidemiological process, one can construct latent residuals with known sampling distributions which can be used to quantify evidence of model mis-specification. In this paper, we extend this idea to formulate a novel model-diagnostic framework for phylodynamic models. Using simulated examples, we show that our framework may effectively detect a particular form of mis-specification in a phylodynamic model, particularly in the event of superspreading. We also exemplify our approach by applying the framework to a dataset describing a local foot-and-mouth (FMD) outbreak in the UK, eliciting strong evidence against the assumption of no within-host-diversity in the outbreak. We further demonstrate that our framework can facilitate model calibration in real-life scenarios, by proposing a within-host-diversity model which appears to offer a better fit to data than one that assumes no within-host-diversity of FMD virus.</p></div

Sensitivity and Specificity of Multiple Kato-Katz Thick Smears and a Circulating Cathodic Antigen Test for Schistosoma mansoni Diagnosis Pre- and Post-repeated-Praziquantel Treatment

Two Kato-Katz thick smears (Kato-Katzs) from a single stool are currently recommended for diagnosing Schistosoma mansoni infections to map areas for intervention. This ‘gold standard’ has low sensitivity at low infection intensities. The urine point-of-care circulating cathodic antigen test (POC-CCA) is potentially more sensitive but how accurately they detect S. mansoni after repeated praziquantel treatments, their suitability for measuring drug efficacy and their correlation with egg counts remain to be fully understood. We compared the accuracies of one to six Kato-Katzs and one POC-CCA for the diagnosis of S. mansoni in primary-school children who have received zero to ten praziquantel treatments. We determined the impact each diagnostic approach may have on monitoring and evaluation (M&E) and drug-efficacy findings

Predictability in a highly stochastic system: final size of measles epidemics in small populations.

To access publisher's full text version of this article, please click on the hyperlink in Additional Links field or click on the hyperlink at the top of the page marked Files. This article is open access.A standard assumption in the modelling of epidemic dynamics is that the population of interest is well mixed, and that no clusters of metapopulations exist. The well-known and oft-used SIR model, arguably the most important compartmental model in theoretical epidemiology, assumes that the disease being modelled is strongly immunizing, directly transmitted and has a well-defined period of infection, in addition to these population mixing assumptions. Childhood infections, such as measles, are prime examples of diseases that fit the SIR-like mechanism. These infections have been well studied for many systems with large, well-mixed populations with endemic infection. Here, we consider a setting where populations are small and isolated. The dynamics of infection are driven by stochastic extinction-recolonization events, producing large, sudden and short-lived epidemics before rapidly dying out from a lack of susceptible hosts. Using a TSIR model, we fit prevaccination measles incidence and demographic data in Bornholm, the Faroe Islands and four districts of Iceland, between 1901 and 1965. The datasets for each of these countries suffer from different levels of data heterogeneity and sparsity. We explore the potential for prediction of this model: given historical incidence data and up-to-date demographic information, and knowing that a new epidemic has just begun, can we predict how large it will be? We show that, despite a lack of significant seasonality in the incidence of measles cases, and potentially severe heterogeneity at the population level, we are able to estimate the size of upcoming epidemics, conditioned on the first time step, to within reasonable confidence. Our results have potential implications for possible control measures for the early stages of new epidemics in small populations.US Department of Homeland Security HSHQDC-12-C-00058 Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development 5R24HD047879 National Institutes of Health 5T32HD007163 Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation RAPIDD program of the Science and Technology Directorate, Department of Homeland Security Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Healt

Proxima Centauri b: A Strong Case for Including Cosmic-Ray-induced Chemistry in Atmospheric Biosignature Studies

Due to its Earth-like minimum mass of 1.27 M-E and its close proximity to our solar system, Proxima Centauri b is one of the most interesting exoplanets for habitability studies. Its host star, Proxima Centauri, is however a strongly flaring star, which is expected to provide a very hostile environment for potentially habitable planets. We perform a habitability study of Proxima Centauri b assuming an Earth-like atmosphere under high stellar particle bombardment, with a focus on spectral transmission features. We employ our extensive model suite calculating energy spectra of stellar particles, their journey through the planetary magnetosphere, ionosphere, and atmosphere, ultimately providing planetary climate and spectral characteristics, as outlined in Herbst et al. Our results suggest that together with the incident stellar energy flux, high particle influxes can lead to efficient heating of the planet well into temperate climates, by limiting CH4 amounts, which would otherwise run into antigreenhouse for such planets around M stars. We identify some key spectral features relevant for future spectral observations: First, NO2 becomes the major absorber in the visible, which greatly impacts the Rayleigh slope. Second, H2O features can be masked by CH4 (near-infrared) and CO2 (mid- to far-infrared), making them nondetectable in transmission. Third, O-3 is destroyed and instead HNO3 features become clearly visible in the mid- to far-infrared. Lastly, assuming a few percent of CO2 in the atmosphere, CO2 absorption at 5.3 mu m becomes significant (for flare and nonflare cases), strongly overlapping with a flare related NO feature in Earth\u27s atmosphere