Spatial and Quantitative Approach to Incorporating Stakeholder Values into Total Maximum Daily Loads: Dominguez Channel Case Study

The Federal Clean Water Act (CWA) Section 303(d)(1)(A) requires each state to identify those waters that are not achieving water quality standards. The result of this assessment is called the 303(d) list. The CWA also requires states to develop and implement Total Maximum Daily Loads (TMDLs) for these waters on the 303(d) list. A TMDL specifies the maximum amount of a pollutant that a water body can receive and still meet water quality standards, and allocates the pollutant loadings to point and non-point sources. Nationwide, over 34,900 segments of waterways have been listed as impaired by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA 2006). The EPA enlists state agencies and local communities to submit TMDL plans to reduce discharges by specified dates or have them developed by the EPA. The Department of Energy requested Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) to develop appropriate tools to assist in improving the TMDL process. An investigation of this process by LLNL found that plans to reduce discharges were being developed based on a wide range of site investigation methods. Our investigation found that given the resources available to the interested and responsible parties, developing a quantitative stakeholder input process and using visualization tools to display quantitative information could improve the acceptability of TMDL plans. We developed a stakeholder allocation model (SAM) which uses multi-attribute utility theory to quantitatively structure the preferences of the major stakeholder groups. We then applied GIS to display allocation options in maps representing economic activity, community groups, and city agencies. This allows allocation options and stakeholder concerns to be represented in both space and time. The primary goal of this tool is to provide a quantitative and visual display of stakeholder concerns over possible TMDL options

Management earnings forecasts and IPO performance: evidence of a regime change

Companies undertaking initial public offerings (IPOs) in Greece were obliged to include next-year profit forecast in their prospectuses, until the regulation changed in 2001 to voluntary forecasting. Drawing evidence from IPOs issued in the period 1993–2015, this is the first study to investigate the effect of disclosure regime on management earnings forecasts and IPO long-term performance. The findings show mainly positive forecast errors (forecasts are lower than actual earnings) and higher long-term returns during the mandatory period, suggesting that the mandatory disclosure requirement causes issuers to systematically bias profit forecasts downwards as they opt for the safety of accounting conservatism. The mandatory disclosure requirement artificially improves IPO share performance. Overall, our results show that mandatory disclosure of earnings forecasts can impede capital market efficiency once it goes beyond historical financial information to involve compulsory projections of future performance

The ability of analysts’ recommendations to predict optimistic and pessimistic forecasts

Previous researches show that buy (growth) companies conduct income increasing earnings management in order to meet forecasts and generate positive forecast Errors (FEs). This behavior however, is not inherent in sell (non-growth) companies. Using the aforementioned background, this research hypothesizes that since sell companies are pressured to avoid income increasing earnings management, they are capable, and in fact more inclined, to pursue income decreasing Forecast Management (FM) with the purpose of generating positive FEs. Using a sample of 6553 firm-years of companies that are listed in the NYSE between the years 2005–2010, the study determines that sell companies conduct income decreasing FM to generate positive FEs. However, the frequency of positive FEs of sell companies does not exceed that of buy companies. Using the efficiency perspective, the study suggests that even though buy and sell companies have immense motivation in avoiding negative FEs, they exploit different but efficient strategies, respectively, in order to meet forecasts. Furthermore, the findings illuminated the complexities behind informative and opportunistic forecasts that falls under the efficiency versus opportunistic theories in literature

Molecular characterization of occult hepatitis B virus infection in patients with end-stage liver disease in Colombia.

ABSTARCT: Hepatitis B virus (HBV) occult infection (OBI) is a risk factor to be taken into account in transfusion, hemodialysis and organ transplantation. The aim of this study was to identify and characterize at the molecular level OBI cases in patients with end-stage liver disease. METHODS: Sixty-six liver samples were obtained from patients with diagnosis of end-stage liver disease submitted to liver transplantation in Medellin (North West, Colombia). Samples obtained from patients who were negative for the surface antigen of HBV (n = 50) were tested for viral DNA detection by nested PCR for ORFs S, C, and X and confirmed by Southern-Blot. OBI cases were analyzed by sequencing the viral genome to determine the genotype and mutations; additionally, viral genome integration events were examined by the Alu-PCR technique. RESULTS: In five cases out of 50 patients (10%) the criteria for OBI was confirmed. HBV genotype F (subgenotypes F1 and F3), genotype A and genotype D were characterized in liver samples. Three integration events in chromosomes 5q14.1, 16p13 and 20q12 affecting Receptor-type tyrosine-protein phosphatase T, Ras Protein Specific Guanine Nucleotide Releasing Factor 2, and the zinc finger 263 genes were identified in two OBI cases. Sequence analysis of the viral genome of the 5 OBI cases showed several punctual missense and nonsense mutations affecting ORFs S, P, Core and X. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first characterization of OBI in patients with end-stage liver disease in Colombia. The OBI cases were identified in patients with HCV infection or cryptogenic cirrhosis. The integration events (5q14.1, 16p13 and 20q12) described in this study have not been previously reported. Further studies are required to validate the role of mutations and integration events in OBI pathogenesis

Management Forecast Credibility and Underreaction to News

In this paper, we first document evidence of underreaction to management forecast news. We then hypothesize that the credibility of the forecast influences the magnitude of this underreaction. Relying on evidence that more credible forecasts are associated with a larger reaction in the short window around the management forecasts and a smaller post-management forecast drift in returns, we show that the magnitude of the underreaction is smaller for firms that provide more credible forecasts. Our paper contributes to the literature by providing out-of-sample evidence of the drift in returns documented in the post-earnings-announcement drift literature, with the credibility of the news being one explanation for the phenomenon.Sloan School of ManagementWharton SchoolDeloitte Foundatio

Systemic Biomarkers of Neutrophilic Inflammation, Tissue Injury and Repair in COPD Patients with Differing Levels of Disease Severity

The identification and validation of biomarkers to support the assessment of novel therapeutics for COPD continues to be an important area of research. The aim of the current study was to identify systemic protein biomarkers correlated with measures of COPD severity, as well as specific protein signatures associated with comorbidities such as metabolic syndrome. 142 protein analytes were measured in serum of 140 patients with stable COPD, 15 smokers without COPD and 30 non-smoking controls. Seven analytes (sRAGE, EN-RAGE, NGAL, Fibrinogen, MPO, TGF-α and HB-EGF) showed significant differences between severe/very severe COPD, mild/moderate COPD, smoking and non-smoking control groups. Within the COPD subjects, univariate and multivariate analyses identified analytes significantly associated with FEV1, FEV1/FVC and DLCO. Most notably, a set of 5 analytes (HB-EGF, Fibrinogen, MCP-4, sRAGE and Sortilin) predicted 21% of the variability in DLCO values. To determine common functions/pathways, analytes were clustered in a correlation network by similarity of expression profile. While analytes related to neutrophil function (EN-RAGE, NGAL, MPO) grouped together to form a cluster associated with FEV1 related parameters, analytes related to the EGFR pathway (HB-EGF, TGF-α) formed another cluster associated with both DLCO and FEV1 related parameters. Associations of Fibrinogen with DLCO and MPO with FEV1/FVC were stronger in patients without metabolic syndrome (r  =  −0.52, p  = 0.005 and r  =  −0.61, p  = 0.023, respectively) compared to patients with coexisting metabolic syndrome (r  =  −0.25, p  = 0.47 and r  =  −0.15, p  = 0.96, respectively), and may be driving overall associations in the general cohort. In summary, our study has identified known and novel serum protein biomarkers and has demonstrated specific associations with COPD disease severity, FEV1, FEV1/FVC and DLCO. These data highlight systemic inflammatory pathways, neutrophil activation and epithelial tissue injury/repair processes as key pathways associated with COPD

Do board secretaries influence management earnings forecasts?

The role of board secretaries is a unique institutional feature in China. Individuals in this senior executive role are responsible for coordinating information disclosure. We study the impact of board secretaries on management earnings forecasts and find that their legal expertise, accounting expertise and foreign experience help improve management earnings forecast quality. The quality of forecasts, as indicated by their occurrence, frequency, precision and accuracy, is also positively associated with the role duality (e.g. board director, CFO or other senior executive role) and equity holdings of board secretaries and negatively associated with their political connection. The quality of forecasts is found to increase the compensation of board secretaries. Finally, we show that the equity holding of board secretaries reduces litigation risks and increases corporate philanthropic giving