Climate change effects on human health: projections of temperature-related mortality for the UK during the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s

Background The most direct way in which climate change is expected to affect public health relates to changes in mortality rates associated with exposure to ambient temperature. Many countries worldwide experience annual heat-related and cold-related deaths associated with current weather patterns. Future changes in climate may alter such risks. Estimates of the likely future health impacts of such changes are needed to inform public health policy on climate change in the UK and elsewhere. Methods Time-series regression analysis was used to characterise current temperature-mortality relationships by region and age group. These were then applied to the local climate and population projections to estimate temperature-related deaths for the UK by the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Greater variability in future temperatures as well as changes in mean levels was modelled. Results A significantly raised risk of heat-related and cold-related mortality was observed in all regions. The elderly were most at risk. In the absence of any adaptation of the population, heat-related deaths would be expected to rise by around 257% by the 2050s from a current annual baseline of around 2000 deaths, and cold-related mortality would decline by 2% from a baseline of around 41 000 deaths. The cold burden remained higher than the heat burden in all periods. The increased number of future temperature-related deaths was partly driven by projected population growth and ageing. Conclusions Health protection from hot weather will become increasingly necessary, and measures to reduce cold impacts will also remain important in the UK. The demographic changes expected this century mean that the health protection of the elderly will be vital

Potential health impacts from sulphur dioxide and sulphate exposure in the UK resulting from an Icelandic effusive volcanic eruption

Ash, gases and particles emitted from volcanic eruptions cause disruption to air transport, but also have negative impacts on respiratory and cardiovascular health. Exposure to sulphur dioxide (SO2) and sulphate (SO4) aerosols increases the risk of mortality, and respiratory and cardiovascular hospital admissions. Ash and gases can be transported over large distances and are a potential public health risk. In 2014–15, the Bárðarbunga fissure eruption at Holuhraun, Iceland was associated with high emissions of SO2 and SO4, detected at UK monitoring stations. We estimated the potential impacts on the UK population from SO2 and SO4 associated with a hypothetical large fissure eruption in Iceland for mortality and emergency hospital admissions. To simulate the effects of different weather conditions, we used an ensemble of 80 runs from an atmospheric dispersion model to simulate SO2 and SO4 concentrations on a background of varying meteorology. We weighted the simulated exposure data by population, and quantified the potential health impacts that may result in the UK over a 6-week period following the start of an eruption. We found in the majority of cases, the expected number of deaths resulting from SO2 over a 6-week period total fewer than ~100 for each model run, and for SO4, in the majority of cases, the number totals fewer than ~200. However, the 6-week simulated period with the highest SO2 was associated with 313 deaths, and the period with the highest SO4 was associated with 826 deaths. The single 6-week period relating to the highest combined SO2 and SO4 was associated with 925 deaths. Over a 5-month extended exposure period, upper estimates are for 3350 deaths, 4030 emergency cardiovascular and 6493 emergency respiratory hospitalizations. These figures represent a worst-case scenario and can inform health protection planning for effusive volcanic eruptions which may affect the UK in the future

The anisotropy of granular materials

The effect of the anisotropy on the elastoplastic response of two dimensional packed samples of polygons is investigated here, using molecular dynamics simulation. We show a correlation between fabric coefficients, characterizing the anisotropy of the granular skeleton, and the anisotropy of the elastic response. We also study the anisotropy induced by shearing on the subnetwork of the sliding contacts. This anisotropy provides an explanation to some features of the plastic deformation of granular media.Comment: Submitted to PR

Review of public health and productivity benefits from different urban transport and related land use options in Australia

The relationship between public health, urban forms and transportation options in Australia is examined through a review aimed at determining possible health indicators to be used in assessing future land use and transportation scenarios. The health benefits, and subsequent economic benefits of walkable, transit orientated urban forms are well established and are measurable. Important health indicators include vehicle miles travelled, access to public transport, access to green areas, transportation related air pollution levels, transportation related noise levels, density and mixed land use. A comparison between a high walkability urban environment and a low walkability urban environment identifies various infrastructure, transportation greenhouse gas emissions and health costs. From this it is determined that infrastructure and transport costs dominate, health costs are relatively small and that health-related productivity gains associated with highly walkable urban areas are substantial. This review provides heath and economic rationale for developing urban forms geared towards active travel

Levels, sources and seasonality of coarse particles (PM10-PM2.5) in three European capitals e implications for particulate pollution control

Coarse particles of aerodynamic diameter between 2.5 and 10 mm (PMc) are produced by a range of natural (windblown dust and sea sprays) and anthropogenic processes (non-exhaust vehicle emissions, industrial, agriculture, construction and quarrying activities). Although current ambient air quality regulations focus on PM2.5 and PM10, coarse particles are of interest from a public health point of view as they have been associated with certain mortality and morbidity outcomes. In this paper, an analysis of coarse particle levels in three European capitals (London, Madrid and Athens) is presented and discussed. For all three cities we analysed data from both traffic and urban background monitoring sites. The results showed that the levels of coarse particles present significant seasonal, weekly and daily variability. Their wind driven and non-wind driven resuspension as well as their roadside increment due to traffic were estimated. Both the local meteorological conditions and the air mass history indicating long-range atmospheric transport of particles of natural origin are significant parameters that influence the levels of coarse particles in the three cities especially during episodic events

Civil aviation, air pollution and human health

Air pollutant emissions from aircraft have been subjected to less rigorous control than road traffic emissions, and the rapid growth of global aviation is a matter of concern in relation to human exposures to pollutants, and consequent effects upon health. Yim et al (2015 Environ. Res. Lett. 3 034001) estimate exposures globally arising from aircraft engine emissions of primary particulate matter, and from secondary sulphates and ozone, and use concentration-response functions to calculate the impact upon mortality, which is monetised using the value of statistical life. This study makes a valuable contribution to estimating the magnitude of public health impact at various scales, ranging from local, near airport, regional and global. The results highlight the need to implement future mitigation actions to limit impacts of aviation upon air quality and public health. The approach adopted in Yim et al only accounts for the air pollutants emitted by aircraft engine exhausts. Whilst aircraft emissions are often considered as dominant near runways, there are a number of other sources and processes related to aviation that still need to be accounted for. This includes impacts of nitrate aerosol formed from NOx emissions, but probably more important, are the other airport-related emissions from ground service equipment and road traffic. By inclusion of these, and consideration of non-fatal impacts, future research will generate comprehensive estimates of impact related to aviation and airports

Indoor pm2.5 exposure in London's domestic stock: Modeling current and future exposures following energy efficient refurbishment

Simulations using CONTAM (a validated multi-zone indoor air quality (IAQ) model) are employed to predict indoor exposure to PM2.5 in London dwellings in both the present day housing stock and the same stock following energy efficient refurbishments to meet greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets for 2050. We modelled interventions that would contribute to the achievement of these targets by reducing the permeability of the dwellings to 3m3m-2hr-1 at 50 Pa, combined with the introduction of mechanical ventilation and heat recovery (MVHR) systems. It is assumed that the current mean outdoor PM2.5 concentration of 13?g.m-3 decreased to 9?g.m-3 by 2050 due to emission control policies. Our primary finding was that installation of (assumed perfectly functioning) MVHR systems with permeability reduction are associated with appreciable reductions in PM2.5 exposure in both smoking and non-smoking dwellings. Modelling of the future scenario for non-smoking dwellings show a reduction in annual average indoor exposure to PM2.5 of 18.8?g.m-3 (from 28.4 to 9.6?g.m-3) for a typical household member. Also of interest is that a larger reduction of 42.6?g.m-3 (from 60.5 to 17.9?g.m-3) was shown for members exposed primarily to cooking-related particle emissions in the kitchen (cooks). Reductions in envelope permeability without mechanical ventilation produced increases in indoor PM2.5 concentrations; 5.4?g.m-3 for typical household members and 9.8?g.m-3 for cooks. These estimates of changes in PM2.5 exposure are sensitive to assumptions about occupant behaviour, ventilation system usage and the distributions of input variables (±72% for non-smoking and ±107% in smoking residences). However, if realised, they would result in significant health benefits

Indoor PM2.5 exposure in London's domestic stock: Modelling current and future exposures following energy efficient refurbishment

Simulations using CONTAM (a validated multi-zone indoor air quality (IAQ) model) are employed to predict indoor exposure to PM2.5 in London dwellings in both the present day housing stock and the same stock following energy efficient refurbishments to meet greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets for 2050. We modelled interventions that would contribute to the achievement of these targets by reducing the permeability of the dwellings to 3 m3 m−2 h−1 at 50 Pa, combined with the introduction of mechanical ventilation and heat recovery (MVHR) systems. It is assumed that the current mean outdoor PM2.5 concentration of 13 μg m−3 decreased to 9 μg m−3 by 2050 due to emission control policies. Our primary finding was that installation of (assumed perfectly functioning) MVHR systems with permeability reduction are associated with appreciable reductions in PM2.5 exposure in both smoking and non-smoking dwellings. Modelling of the future scenario for non-smoking dwellings show a reduction in annual average indoor exposure to PM2.5 of 18.8 μg m−3 (from 28.4 to 9.6 μg m−3) for a typical household member. Also of interest is that a larger reduction of 42.6 μg m−3 (from 60.5 to 17.9 μg m−3) was shown for members exposed primarily to cooking-related particle emissions in the kitchen (cooks). Reductions in envelope permeability without mechanical ventilation produced increases in indoor PM2.5 concentrations; 5.4 μg m−3 for typical household members and 9.8 μg m−3 for cooks. These estimates of changes in PM2.5 exposure are sensitive to assumptions about occupant behaviour, ventilation system usage and the distributions of input variables (±72% for non-smoking and ±107% in smoking residences). However, if realised, they would result in significant health benefits

Ambient particulate matter and biomass burning:an ecological time series study of respiratory and cardiovascular hospital visits in northern Thailand

Background Exposure to particulate matter (PM) emitted from biomass burning is an increasing concern, particularly in Southeast Asia. It is not yet clear how the source of PM influences the risk of an adverse health outcome. The objective of this study was to quantify and compare health risks of PM from biomass burning and non-biomass burning sources in northern Thailand. Methods We collected ambient air pollutant data (PM with a diameter of < 10 μm [PM10], PM2.5, Carbon Monoxide [CO], Ozone [O3], and Nitrogen Dioxide [NO2]) from ground-based monitors and daily outpatient hospital visits in Thailand during 2014–2017. Outpatient data included chronic lower respiratory disease (CLRD), ischaemic heart disease (IHD), and cerebrovascular disease (CBVD). We performed an ecological time series analysis to evaluate the association between daily air pollutants and outpatient visits. We used the 90th and 95th percentiles of PM10 concentrations to determine days of exposure to PM predominantly from biomass burning. Results There was significant intra annual variation in PM10 levels, with the highest concentrations occurring during March, coinciding with peak biomass burning. Incidence Rate Ratios (IRRs) between daily PM10 and outpatient visits were elevated most on the same day as exposure for CLRD = 1.020 (95% CI: 1.012 to 1.028) and CBVD = 1.020 (95% CI: 1.004 to 1.035), with no association with IHD = 0.994 (95% CI: 0.974 to 1.014). Adjusting for CO tended to increase effect estimates. We did not find evidence of an exposure response relationship with levels of PM10 on days of biomass burning. Conclusions We found same-day exposures of PM10 to be associated with certain respiratory and cardiovascular outpatient visits. We advise implementing measures to reduce population exposures to PM wherever possible, and to improve understanding of health effects associated with burning specific types of biomass in areas where such large-scale activities occur.This study was funded by the Medical Research Council (MRC) (MR/R006210/1) and the Thailand Research Fund (TRF) (RDG603009)