A Study of Historical Inflation Forecasts Used in the Department of Defense Future Years Defense Program

This thesis explores historical inflation forecasts used in the Department of Defense (DoD) Future Years Defense Program. The study examines historical DoD forecasts against experienced inflation as measured by the Gross National Product and Gross Domestic Product implicit price deflator (GNP/GDP IPD) from 1979 to 1996. This study also compares the accuracy of DoD forecasts with those made by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and Data Resources, Incorporated (DRI). The results regarding the performance of historical DoD inflation forecasts are mixed. Upon examining budget through five year GNP/GDP IPD forecast spans, DoD short-term results do not indicate a downward bias and DoD long-term results do indicate a downward bias. Overall DoD forecast bias was lower than the CBO and DRI which tended to overestimate inflation. Next, forecast accuracy was evaluated in which all agencies equally anticipated budget year inflation. Forecasts for later years also yielded mixed results. CBO and DRI forecasts tend to exhibit less dispersion, but DoD tends to have less bias. DRI one, two, and three year forecasts and CBO four and five year projections demonstrated the least dispersion while DoD forecast results were more dispersed. Possible explanations and implications of these findings are provided

Acidosis in Skin Diseases

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Review of \u3ci\u3eUrochloa\u3c/i\u3e Breeder’s Toolbox with the Theory of Change and Stage Gate System Approach

Livestock production in the global south is at crossroads as there is a demand to increase Animal Source Foods to address hunger and pressure to lighten the environmental footprint often associated with livestock production. To satisfy both needs, the use of technologies that improve animal performance, while reducing land use and net Greenhouse Gas emissions produced by animals is essential. One of such technologies are Urochloa forage grasses. Urochloa forage grasses are well known for their rusticity and their ability to grow in soils of low fertility and high aluminum content. These characteristics allow Urochloa to grow in areas temporally or spatially less suitable for crop production, but also have made ruminants production profitable in areas that would not be otherwise. However, productivity and sustainability of ruminant production in these areas is likely to fall within the next decade due to climate change unless action is taken. Despite these known benefits of Urochloa forage species, breeding programs have long delayed initiation due to apomixes and differences in ploidy. In the mid-1980s, the development of suitable sexual germplasm allowed crossings, and therefore favoured the emergence of breeding programs. In recent decades, several advances in biology, molecular biology, phenotyping, population genetics, genomics and transcriptomics have generated a plethora of information that ought to be integrated for its use in a single breeding toolbox. We use the Theory of Change and Stage-Gate systems approach to review these advances in research and the utility of the current and future available tools. Further, we address the remaining lack of information, thus bridging the knowledge gap and enabling us to maximize the genetic gain in the different Urochloa breeding programs. In this way, we identify breeding bottlenecks and help to pinpoint priorities for Urochloa research and development

Book reviews

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/45119/1/10943_2005_Article_BF01533201.pd

Molecular Population Structure for Feral Swine in the United States

Feral swine (Sus scrofa) have invaded most of the United States and continue to expand throughout North America. Given the ecological and economic threats posed by increasing feral swine abundance, it is imperative to develop an understanding of their patterns of natural range expansion and human-mediated introductions. Towards this goal, we used molecular markers to elucidate the genetic structure of feral swine populations throughout the United States and evaluated the association between historical introductions and contemporary patterns of genetic organization. We used STRUCTURE and discriminant analysis of principal components (DAPC) to delineate genetic clusters for 959 individuals genotyped at 88 single nucleotide polymorphism loci. We identified 10 and 12 genetic clusters for the 2 clustering approaches, respectively. We observed strong agreement in clusters across approaches, with both describing clusters having strong geographic association at regional levels reflecting past introduction and range expansion patterns. In addition, we evaluated patterns of isolation by distance to test for and estimate spatial scaling of population structure within western, central, and eastern regions of North America. We found contrasting spatial patterns of genetic relatedness among regions, suggesting differences in the invasion process, likely as a result of regional variation in landscape heterogeneity and the influence of human mediated introductions. Our results indicate that molecular analyses of population genetic structure can provide reliable insights into the invasion processes of feral swine, thus providing a useful basis for management focused on minimizing continued range expansion by this problematic species

CGIAR GENDER Platform: Evaluation Report

The summative and formative evaluation of the GENDER (Generating Evidence and New Directions for Equitable Results) Platform assessed its progress from January 2020 to October 2022, to document lessons and best practices, to also provide forward-looking recommendations for the newly transitioned CGIAR GENDER Impact Platform. The evaluation was conducted between October 2022 – June 2023 by the external team, which was led by an evaluation expert and comprised of three subject matter experts to specifically address Evidence, Methods, and Alliances modules of the Platform. This evaluation employed theory-based, utilization-focused, participatory, and feminist approaches aligned with CGIAR’s Evaluation Framework and Policies. The Platform evaluation readiness was determined by an evaluability assessment jointly carried out by the GENDER platform team, with facilitation and quality assurance under IAES, following the CGIAR evaluability assessment guidelines. The presentation of approaches and methodology of the evaluation and its novelties was shared with the wider audiences at the 2023 gLOCAL event: How Evaluations Contribute to Addressing The Greater Societal Issues: Evaluation of the CGIAR GENDER Platform Additional detail on methodology is provided in the Annex. Seven key evaluation questions were framed along the five evaluation criteria: relevance, effectiveness, efficiency, coherence, and sustainability. Quality of Science evaluation criteria was integrated into the specific evaluation sub-questions of the Evidence module study, to pretest the evaluation guidelines CGIAR on evaluating QoR4D in process and performance evaluations. The evaluation used three kinds of triangulation: investigator triangulation, data triangulation, and methodological triangulation. Mixed methods were employed, including: online survey (119 respondents- see survey blog), key informant interviews (84 participants), and desk reviews on Platform indicator data, annual reports, module financial data, and other secondary documents. Executive summaries of three module reports are includes in the Annex, complementing the Platform-wide evidence and conclusions. Responding to the key stakeholder groups, the evaluation made 11 recommendations for: the GENDER Platform and CGIAR management. Complementing lessons from other platform evaluations of Excellence in Breeding Platform and Big Data in Agriculture, lessons learnt from this evaluation of the GENDER platform that would apply to new CGIAR impact platforms. Please read the evaluation report with stand-alone annexes, and Management Response to the evaluation. Stay tuned for other knowledge management products

Impact of pulmonary disease on the prognosis in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction: the TOPCAT trial

Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/154618/1/ejhf1593_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/154618/2/ejhf1593.pd

Influence of ejection fraction on cause‐specific mortality in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction

Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/143697/1/ejhf1040.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/143697/2/ejhf1040_am.pd

Portfolio Vol. I N 3

Sweitzer, Harry J. Portfolio Goes to Press . Prose. 1. Browne, Phil. William Howard Doane Library . Picture. 2. Overhuls, James. Out of Himself . Prose. 3. MacNeill, Annie Marie. To President and Mrs. Shaw . Poem. 6. Baker, George. Saint in a Silo . Prose 7. Beckham, Adela. In Moods . Poem. 8. Vincent, Charles. Incident of August 7, 1930. Prose. 9. Flory, Doris. Opinions . Poem. 10. Flory, Doris. Thoughts in Spring . Poem. 10. Flory, Doris. Breakfast Scene . Poem. 10. Shaw, Robert B. A Date for the Dances . Prose. 11. Cronberger, Barbara. And the Years Go On . Prose. 13. Hanna, Stanley. Reola, Reola . Poem. 14. Hanna, Stanley. The Dance of the Kobolds . Poem. 14. Nadel, Norman. I died Last Night . Prose. 15. Bethune, Don S. Adolescence . Poem 16. Vodev, Eugene. The Black Day of Bulgaria . Prose. 17. Dick, Pewilla. To a White Violet . Poem. 18. Dick, Pewilla. As With Your Shadow . Poem. 18. Dwelly, Thorndike. Of Mice and Men . Prose. 19. Clements, Helen. Our Town . Prose. 19. Schlle, Alice. Marion is an Old Costume . Picture. 20. Chadeayne, Robert. Factory . Picture. 20. Nadel, Norman. Dmitri Shostakovitch . Prose. 21. Stewart, John. Duke Ellington\u27s Records . Prose. 21. Beck, Virginia. The Dance as an Art . Prose. 22. Dick, Pewilla. Death . Poem. 23. Flory, Doris. On Reforms . Poem. 24. Beckham, Adela. The Lie . Poem. 24. Bethune, Don. Futility . Poem. 24