Climate Change and the Potential Distribution of an Invasive Shrub, Lantana camara L

The threat posed by invasive species, in particular weeds, to biodiversity may be exacerbated by climate change. Lantana camara L. (lantana) is a woody shrub that is highly invasive in many countries of the world. It has a profound economic and environmental impact worldwide, including Australia. Knowledge of the likely potential distribution of this invasive species under current and future climate will be useful in planning better strategies to manage the invasion. A process-oriented niche model of L. camara was developed using CLIMEX to estimate its potential distribution under current and future climate scenarios. The model was calibrated using data from several knowledge domains, including phenological observations and geographic distribution records. The potential distribution of lantana under historical climate exceeded the current distribution in some areas of the world, notably Africa and Asia. Under future scenarios, the climatically suitable areas for L. camara globally were projected to contract. However, some areas were identified in North Africa, Europe and Australia that may become climatically suitable under future climates. In South Africa and China, its potential distribution could expand further inland. These results can inform strategic planning by biosecurity agencies, identifying areas to target for eradication or containment. Distribution maps of risk of potential invasion can be useful tools in public awareness campaigns, especially in countries that have been identified as becoming climatically suitable for L. camara under the future climate scenarios

The potential distribution of Bactrocera dorsalis: Considering phenology and irrigation patterns

A species in the Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) complex was detected in Kenya during 2003 and classified as Bactrocera invadens Drew, Tsuruta & White. Having spread rapidly throughout Africa, it threatens agriculture due to crop damage and loss of market access. In a recent revision of the B. dorsalis complex, B. invadens was incorporated into the species B. dorsalis. The potential distribution of B. dorsalis has been previously modelled. However, previous models were based on presence data and did not incorporate information on the seasonal phenology of B. dorsalis, nor on the possible influence that irrigation may have on its distribution. Methyl eugenol-baited traps were used to collect B. dorsalis in Africa. Seasonal phenology data, measured as fly abundance throughout the year, was related to each location's climate to infer climatic growth response parameters. These functions were used along with African distribution records and development studies to fit the niche model for B. dorsalis, using independent global distribution records outside Africa for model validation. Areas at greatest risk of invasion by B. dorsalis are South and Central America, Mexico, southernmost USA, parts of the Mediterranean coast, parts of Southern and Eastern Australia and New Zealand's North Island. Under irrigation, most of Africa and Australia appear climatically suitable. (Résumé d'auteur

Future climate effects on suitability for growth of oil palms in Malaysia and Indonesia

The production of palm oil (PO) is highly profitable. The economies of the principal producers, Malaysia and Indonesia, and others, benefit considerably. Climate change (CC) will most likely have an impact on the distribution of oil palms (OP) (Elaeis guineensis). Here we present modelled CC projections with respect to the suitability of growing OP, in Malaysia and Indonesia. A process-oriented niche model of OP was developed using CLIMEX to estimate its potential distribution under current and future climate scenarios. Two Global Climate Models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.0 and MIROC-H, were used to explore the impacts of CC under the A1B and A2 scenarios for 2030, 2070 and 2100. Decreases in climatic suitability for OP in the region were gradual by 2030 but became more pronounced by 2100. These projections imply that OP growth will be affected severely by CC, with obvious implications to the economies of (a) Indonesia and Malaysia and (b) the PO industry, but with potential benefits towards reducing CC. A possible remedial action is to concentrate research on development of new varieties of OP that are less vulnerable to CC.The Portuguese-based authors thank the FCT Strategic Project of UID/BIO/04469/2013 unit, the project RECI/BBB-EBI/0179/2012 (FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-027462) and the Project "BioEnv - Biotechnology and Bioengineering for a sustainable world", REF. NORTE-07-0124-FEDER-000048, co-funded by the Programa Operacional Regional do Norte (ON.2 - O Novo Norte), QREN, FEDER

Screening potential pests of Nordic coniferous forests associated with trade in ornamental plants

Plant pests moved along with the trade in ornamental plants could pose a threat to forests. In this study plant pests potentially associated with this pathway were screened to identify pests that could pose a high risk to the coniferous forests of Finland, Sweden and Norway. Specifically, the aim was to find pests that potentially could fulfil the criteria to become regulated as quarantine pests. EPPO’s commodity study approach, which includes several screening steps, was used to identify the pests that are most likely to become significant pests of Picea abies or Pinus sylvestris. From an initial list of 1062 pests, 65 pests were identified and ranked using the FinnPRIO model, resulting in a top list of 14 pests, namely Chionaspis pinifoliae, Coleosporium asterum s.l., Cytospora kunzei, Dactylonectria macrodidyma, Gnathotrichus retusus, Heterobasidion irregulare, Lambdina fiscellaria, Orgyia leucostigma, Orthotomicus erosus, Pseudocoremia suavis, Tetropium gracilicorne, Toumeyella parvicornis, Truncatella hartigii and Xylosandrus germanus. The rankings of the pests, together with the collected information, can be used to prioritize pests and pathways for further assessment

Effects of the Training Dataset Characteristics on the Performance of Nine Species Distribution Models: Application to Diabrotica virgifera virgifera

Many distribution models developed to predict the presence/absence of invasive alien species need to be fitted to a training dataset before practical use. The training dataset is characterized by the number of recorded presences/absences and by their geographical locations. The aim of this paper is to study the effect of the training dataset characteristics on model performance and to compare the relative importance of three factors influencing model predictive capability; size of training dataset, stage of the biological invasion, and choice of input variables. Nine models were assessed for their ability to predict the distribution of the western corn rootworm, Diabrotica virgifera virgifera, a major pest of corn in North America that has recently invaded Europe. Twenty-six training datasets of various sizes (from 10 to 428 presence records) corresponding to two different stages of invasion (1955 and 1980) and three sets of input bioclimatic variables (19 variables, six variables selected using information on insect biology, and three linear combinations of 19 variables derived from Principal Component Analysis) were considered. The models were fitted to each training dataset in turn and their performance was assessed using independent data from North America and Europe. The models were ranked according to the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve and the likelihood ratio. Model performance was highly sensitive to the geographical area used for calibration; most of the models performed poorly when fitted to a restricted area corresponding to an early stage of the invasion. Our results also showed that Principal Component Analysis was useful in reducing the number of model input variables for the models that performed poorly with 19 input variables. DOMAIN, Environmental Distance, MAXENT, and Envelope Score were the most accurate models but all the models tested in this study led to a substantial rate of mis-classification

Invasiveness, biology, ecology, and management of the fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda.

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The BRT and the danfo: A case study of Lagos’ transport reforms from 1999-2019

Over the last 20 years, Lagos has had to make large-scale investments in transport infrastructure to keep up with its growing population. Most notably, in 2008, Lagos opened the first ever Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system on the African continent. Today, the system boasts two different lines which cover over 35.5km of track and transport over 350,000 commuters on a daily basis. Through the BRT and wider reforms, Lagos has been able to achieve reductions in travel times of up to one-third since 2008, relieving an estimated USD$240m in economic loss each year. This case study provides a detailed account of the Lagos experience, highlighting key factors behind its successful reforms as well as important lessons for other cities looking to improve their public transport systems