Composite Repairs To Cracked Metallic Components- Experiment and Theory

In this paper we show how the published literature reveals that the analytical solution for a composite repair to a cracked metallic plate is inconsistent with experimental data, and that the fibre bridging effect is often a second order effect. The result is that prediction of the effect of a composite repair on the structural integrity of cracked components repaired by an externally bonded composite repair is dramatically simplified

Streamlining pathways for minor injuries in emergency departments through radiographer-led discharge

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Elsevier via the DOI in this record.Diagnostic imaging services are essential to the diagnosis pathway for many patients arriving at hospital emergency departments with a suspected fracture. Commonly, these patients need to be seen again by a doctor or emergency nurse practitioner after an X-ray image has been taken in order to finalise the diagnosis and determine the next stage in the patients’ pathway. Here, significant waiting times can accrue for these follow-up consultations after radiographic imaging although the vast majority of patients are discharged. Research evidence from pilot studies suggests that patients with minor appendicular injuries could be safely discharged by a suitably qualified radiographer directly after imaging thereby avoiding queues for repeated consultation. In this study, we model patient pathways through an emergency department (ED) at a hospital in the South West of England using process mapping, interviews with ED staff and discrete event simulation (DES). The DES model allowed us to compare the current practice at the hospital with scenarios using radiographer-led discharge of patients directly after imaging and assess the reduction in patients’ length of stay in ED. We also quantified trade-offs between the provision of radiographer-led discharge and its effects, i.e. reduction in waiting times and ED workload. Finally, we discuss how this decision support tool can be used to support understanding for patients and members of staff.Part of this research, i.e. the work of Martin Pitt and Sebastian Rachuba, was supported by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care South West Peninsula (NIHR CLAHRC South West Peninsula)

Functional co-monotony of processes with applications to peacocks and barrier options

We show that several general classes of stochastic processes satisfy a functional co-monotony principle, including processes with independent increments, Brownian diffusions, Liouville processes. As a first application, we recover some recent results about peacock processes obtained by Hirsch et al. which were themselves motivated by a former work of Carr et al. about the sensitivity of Asian Call options with respect to their volatility and residual maturity (seniority). We also derive semi-universal bounds for various barrier options.Comment: 27 page

Restoration and Monitoring of the River Otter Population in Iowa

Northern river otters (Lontra canadensis) were widespread in North America at the time of European settlement. However, river otters were extirpated from most of Iowa in the early 1900s due to habitat degradation and unregulated harvest. In 1985, the Iowa Department of Natural Resources began an effort to restore the river otter population throughout the state, including a pilot study of survival to determine if establishment was feasible. Annual survival was estimated to be 86% during the pilot study. River otters dispersed an average of about 11 km from the point of release and exhibited habitat use typical for the species. Based on the successful pilot study, 261 river otters were released in the state of Iowa from 1986-2001. More recently we examined the age structure and reproductive effort of 81 river otters (43 females and 38 males) collected in Iowa from 1999-2001 to document the characteristics of the reestablished population. We found that 41% of the otters sampled were juveniles, 38% were yearlings and 21% were adults. Fifty-five percent of all female otters were pregnant, and 80% of adult females were pregnant. We observed a mean of 2.9 corpora lutea/female and calculated that female’s ≥ 1 year old could potentially produce an average 5.7 female offspring during an average life span. Based on the widespread distribution, healthy reproductive characteristics, and high survival rates it is feasible that a limited harvest of river otter could be implemented in Iowa

Backscattered Electron Imaging and Windowless Energy Dispersive X-Ray Microanalysis: A New Technique for Gallstone Analysis

Scanning electron microscopy with or without conventional energy dispersive x-ray microanalysis is currently used to identify gallstone microstructure and inorganic composition. Organic calcium salts are among many biliary constituents thought to have a role in gallstone nidation and growth. However, current analytical techniques which identify these salts are destructive and compromise gallstone microstructural data. We have developed a new technique for gallstone analysis which provides simultaneous structural and compositional identification of calcium salts within gallstones. Backscattered electron imaging is used to localize calcium within cholesterol at minimum concentrations of 0.01%. Windowless energy dispersive x-ray microanalysis produces elemental spectra of gallstone calcium salts which are qualitatively and quantitatively different. These combined techniques provide simultaneous structural and compositional information obtained from intact gallstone cross-sections and have been used to identify calcium salts in gallstones obtained at cholecystectomy from 106 patients

The evolution of representation in simple cognitive networks

Representations are internal models of the environment that can provide guidance to a behaving agent, even in the absence of sensory information. It is not clear how representations are developed and whether or not they are necessary or even essential for intelligent behavior. We argue here that the ability to represent relevant features of the environment is the expected consequence of an adaptive process, give a formal definition of representation based on information theory, and quantify it with a measure R. To measure how R changes over time, we evolve two types of networks---an artificial neural network and a network of hidden Markov gates---to solve a categorization task using a genetic algorithm. We find that the capacity to represent increases during evolutionary adaptation, and that agents form representations of their environment during their lifetime. This ability allows the agents to act on sensorial inputs in the context of their acquired representations and enables complex and context-dependent behavior. We examine which concepts (features of the environment) our networks are representing, how the representations are logically encoded in the networks, and how they form as an agent behaves to solve a task. We conclude that R should be able to quantify the representations within any cognitive system, and should be predictive of an agent's long-term adaptive success.Comment: 36 pages, 10 figures, one Tabl

Construction of stationary time series via the Gibbs sampler with application to volatility models

In this paper, we provide a method for modelling stationary time series. We allow the family of marginal densities for the observations to be specified. Our approach is to construct the model with a specified marginal family and build the dependence structure around it. We show that the resulting time series is linear with a simple autocorrelation structure. In particular, we present an original application of the Gibbs sampler. We illustrate our approach by fitting a model to time series count data with a marginal Poisson-gamma density

Competence Checking for the Global E-Service Society Using Games

We study the problem of checking the competence of communicative agents operating in a global society in order to receive and offer electronic services. Such a society will be composed of local sub-societies that will often be semi-open, viz., entrance of agents in a semi-open society is conditional to specific admission criteria. Assuming that a candidate agent provides an abstract description of their communicative skills, we present a test that a controller agent could perform in order to decide if a candidate agent should be admitted. We formulate this test by revisiting an existing knowledge representation framework based on games specified as extended logic programs. The resulting framework finds useful application in complex and inter-operable web-services construed as semi-open societies in support of the global vision known as the Semantic Web

Sequential quasi-Monte Carlo: Introduction for Non-Experts, Dimension Reduction, Application to Partly Observed Diffusion Processes

SMC (Sequential Monte Carlo) is a class of Monte Carlo algorithms for filtering and related sequential problems. Gerber and Chopin (2015) introduced SQMC (Sequential quasi-Monte Carlo), a QMC version of SMC. This paper has two objectives: (a) to introduce Sequential Monte Carlo to the QMC community, whose members are usually less familiar with state-space models and particle filtering; (b) to extend SQMC to the filtering of continuous-time state-space models, where the latent process is a diffusion. A recurring point in the paper will be the notion of dimension reduction, that is how to implement SQMC in such a way that it provides good performance despite the high dimension of the problem.Comment: To be published in the proceedings of MCMQMC 201