A tutorial on the CARE III approach to reliability modeling

The CARE 3 reliability model for aircraft avionics and control systems is described by utilizing a number of examples which frequently use state-of-the-art mathematical modeling techniques as a basis for their exposition. Behavioral decomposition followed by aggregration were used in an attempt to deal with reliability models with a large number of states. A comprehensive set of models of the fault-handling processes in a typical fault-tolerant system was used. These models were semi-Markov in nature, thus removing the usual restrictions of exponential holding times within the coverage model. The aggregate model is a non-homogeneous Markov chain, thus allowing the times to failure to posses Weibull-like distributions. Because of the departures from traditional models, the solution method employed is that of Kolmogorov integral equations, which are evaluated numerically

Nanocrystalline Zr3Al Made through Amorphization by Repeated Cold Rolling and Followed by Crystallization

The intermetallic compound Zr3Al is severely deformed by the method of repeated cold rolling. By X-ray diffraction it is shown that this leads to amorphization. TEM investigations reveal that a homogeneously distributed debris of very small nanocrystals is present in the amorphous matrix that is not resolved by X-ray diffraction. After heating to 773 K, the crystallization of the amorphous structure leads to a fully nanocrystalline structure of small grains (10 - 20 nm in diameter) of the non-equilibrium Zr2Al phase. It is concluded that the debris retained in the amorphous phase acts as nuclei. After heating to 973 K the grains grow to about 100 nm in diameter and the compound Zr3Al starts to form, that is corresponding to the alloy composition

Offshore landslide hazard curves from mapped landslide size distributions

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2019. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research-Solid Earth 124(4), (2019): 3320-3334, doi:10.1029/2018JB017236.We present a method to calculate landslide hazard curves along offshore margins based on size distributions of submarine landslides. The method utilizes 10 different continental margins that were mapped by high‐resolution multibeam sonar with landslide scar areas measured by a consistent Geographic Information System procedure. Statistical tests of several different probability distribution models indicate that the lognormal model is most appropriate for these siliciclastic environments, consistent with an earlier study of the U.S. Atlantic margin (Chaytor et al., 2009, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.margeo.2008.08.007). Parameter estimation is performed using the maximum likelihood technique, and confidence intervals are determined using likelihood profiles. Pairwise comparison of size distributions for the 10 margins indicates that the U.S. Atlantic and Queen Charlotte margins are different than most other margins. These margins represent end‐members, with the U.S. Atlantic margin having the highest mean scar area and the Queen Charlotte margin the lowest. We demonstrate that empirical, offshore landslide hazard curves can be developed from the landslide size distributions, if the duration of mapped landslide activity is known. This study indicates that the shape parameter of the size distribution is similar among all 10 margins, and thus, the shape of the hazard curves is also similar. Significant differences in hazard curves among the margins are therefore related to differences in mean sizes and, potentially, differences in the duration of landslide activity.The authors gratefully acknowledge the constructive comments of this manuscript by Joshu Mountjoy, Tom Parsons, and anonymous reviewer. We also thank Yehuda Ben Zion for managing this manuscript and the scientists who provided the bathymetry data. Margin and landslide polygon shape files and information on bathymetry data sources are available at GSA Repository item number 2016187.2019-10-0

¿El tamaño y la orientación del grupo intruso afecta a la distancia de iniciación al vuelo en aves?

Wildlife managers use flight initiation distance (FID), the distance animals flee an approaching predator, to determine set back distances to minimize human impacts on wildlife. FID is typically estimated by a single person; this study examined the effects of intruder number and orientation on FID. Three different group size treatments (solitary person, two people side–by–side, two people one–behind–the–other) were applied to Pied Currawongs (Strepera graculina) and to Crimson Rosellas (Platycerus elegans). Rosellas flushed at significantly greater distances when approached by two people compared to a single person. This effect was not seen in currawongs. Intruder orientation did not influence the FID of either species. Results suggest that intruder number should be better integrated into estimates of set back distance to manage human visitation around sensitive species.Los gestores de la fauna utilizan la distancia de iniciación al vuelo (FID), la distancia a la que los animales huyen cuando se les acerca un depredador, para determinar las distancias de respuesta a fin de minimizar el impacto humano en la fauna. La FID es estimada típicamente por una sola persona; este estudio examinó los efectos del número y de la orientación del intruso en la FID. Se aplicaron tres tratamientos distintos de tamaño del grupo (persona solitaria, dos personas una al lado de la otra, dos personas una detras de la otra) a currawongs cálidos (Strepera graculina) y a pericos elegantes (Platycerus elegans). Los pericos elegantes huían a distancias perceptiblemente mayores cuando se le acercaban dos personas que cuando se le acercaba una sola. Este efecto no fue observado en los currawongs pálidos. La orientación del intruso no influenció en la FID de ninguna especie. Los resultados sugieren que el número de intrusos debería ser considerado en las estimaciones de las distancias de respuesta, para poder gestionar las visitas de personas cerca de especies sensibles

Size distribution of submarine landslides and its implication to tsunami hazard in Puerto Rico

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2006. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 33 (2006): L11307, doi:10.1029/2006GL026125.We have established for the first time a size frequency distribution for carbonate submarine slope failures. Using detailed bathymetry along the northern edge of the carbonate platform north of Puerto Rico, we show that the cumulative distribution of slope failure volumes follows a power-law distribution. The power-law exponent of this distribution is similar to those for rock falls on land, commensurate with their interpreted failure mode. The carbonate volume distribution and its associated volume-area relationship are significantly different from those for clay-rich debris lobes in the Storegga slide, Norway. Coupling this relationship with tsunami simulations allows an estimate of the maximum tsunami runup and the maximum number of potentially damaging tsunamis from landslides to the north shore of Puerto Rico

Boom‐bust dynamics in biological invasions: towards an improved application of the concept

Boom‐bust dynamics – the rise of a population to outbreak levels, followed by a dramatic decline – have been associated with biological invasions and offered as a reason not to manage troublesome invaders. However, boom‐bust dynamics rarely have been critically defined, analyzed, or interpreted. Here, we define boom‐bust dynamics and provide specific suggestions for improving the application of the boom‐bust concept. Boom‐bust dynamics can arise from many causes, some closely associated with invasions, but others occurring across a wide range of ecological settings, especially when environmental conditions are changing rapidly. As a result, it is difficult to infer cause or predict future trajectories merely by observing the dynamic. We use tests with simulated data to show that a common metric for detecting and describing boom‐bust dynamics, decline from an observed peak to a subsequent trough, tends to severely overestimate the frequency and severity of busts, and should be used cautiously if at all. We review and test other metrics that are better suited to describe boom‐bust dynamics. Understanding the frequency and importance of boom‐bust dynamics requires empirical studies of large, representative, long‐term data sets that use clear definitions of boom‐bust, appropriate analytical methods, and careful interpretations

Assessment of tsunami hazard to the U.S. Atlantic margin

This paper is not subject to U.S. copyright. The definitive version was published in Marine Geology 353 (2014): 31-54, doi:10.1016/j.margeo.2014.02.011.Tsunami hazard is a very low-probability, but potentially high-risk natural hazard, posing unique challenges to scientists and policy makers trying to mitigate its impacts. These challenges are illustrated in this assessment of tsunami hazard to the U.S. Atlantic margin. Seismic activity along the U.S. Atlantic margin in general is low, and confirmed paleo-tsunami deposits have not yet been found, suggesting a very low rate of hazard. However, the devastating 1929 Grand Banks tsunami along the Atlantic margin of Canada shows that these events continue to occur. Densely populated areas, extensive industrial and port facilities, and the presence of ten nuclear power plants along the coast, make this region highly vulnerable to flooding by tsunamis and therefore even low-probability events need to be evaluated. We can presently draw several tentative conclusions regarding tsunami hazard to the U.S. Atlantic coast. Landslide tsunamis likely constitute the biggest tsunami hazard to the coast. Only a small number of landslides have so far been dated and they are generally older than 10,000 years. The geographical distribution of landslides along the margin is expected to be uneven and to depend on the distribution of seismic activity along the margin and on the geographical distribution of Pleistocene sediment. We do not see evidence that gas hydrate dissociation contributes to the generation of landslides along the U.S. Atlantic margin. Analysis of landslide statistics along the fluvial and glacial portions of the margin indicate that most of the landslides are translational, were probably initiated by seismic acceleration, and failed as aggregate slope failures. How tsunamis are generated from aggregate landslides remains however, unclear. Estimates of the recurrence interval of earthquakes along the continental slope may provide maximum estimates for the recurrence interval of landslide along the margin. Tsunamis caused by atmospheric disturbances and by coastal earthquakes may be more frequent than those generated by landslides, but their amplitudes are probably smaller. Among the possible far-field earthquake sources, only earthquakes located within the Gulf of Cadiz or west of the Tore-Madeira Rise are likely to affect the U.S. coast. It is questionable whether earthquakes on the Puerto Rico Trench are capable of producing a large enough tsunami that will affect the U.S. Atlantic coast. More information is needed to evaluate the seismic potential of the northern Cuba fold-and-thrust belt. The hazard from a volcano flank collapse in the Canary Islands is likely smaller than originally stated, and there is not enough information to evaluate the magnitude and frequency of flank collapse from the Azores Islands. Both deterministic and probabilistic methods to evaluate the tsunami hazard from the margin are available for application to the Atlantic margin, but their implementation requires more information than is currently available.The work was funded by the U.S.-NRC Job Code V6166: Tsunami Landslide Source Probability and Potential Impact on New and Existing Power Plants