Risk Prediction Scores for Postoperative Mortality After Esophagectomy: Validation of Different Models

Background: Different prediction models for operative mortality after esophagectomy have been developed. The aim of this study is to independently validate prediction models from Philadelphia, Rotterdam, Munich, and the ASA. Methods: The scores were validated using logistic regression models in two cohorts of patients undergoing esophagectomy for cancer from Switzerland (n = 170) and Australia (n = 176). Results: All scores except ASA were significantly higher in the Australian cohort. There was no significant difference in 30-day mortality or in-hospital death between groups. The Philadelphia and Rotterdam scores had a significant predictive value for 30-day mortality (p = 0.001) and in-hospital death (p = 0.003) in the pooled cohort, but only the Philadelphia score had a significant prediction value for 30-day mortality in both cohorts. Neither score showed any predictive value for in-hospital death in Australians but were highly significant in the Swiss cohort. ASA showed only a significant predictive value for 30-day mortality in the Swiss. For in-hospital death, ASA was a significant predictor in the pooled and Swiss cohorts. The Munich score did not have any significant predictive value whatsoever. Conclusion: None of the scores can be applied generally. A better overall predictive score or specific prediction scores for each country should be develope

The global impact of tobacco control policies on smokeless tobacco use: a systematic review

BACKGROUND: Smokeless tobacco, used by more than 300 million people globally, results in substantial morbidity and mortality. For smokeless tobacco control, many countries have adopted policies beyond the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, which has been instrumental in reducing smoking prevalence. The impact of these policies (within and outside the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control) on smokeless tobacco use remains unclear. We aimed to systematically review policies that are relevant to smokeless tobacco and its context and investigate their impact on smokeless tobacco use. METHODS: In this systematic review, we searched 11 electronic databases and grey literature between Jan 1, 2005, and Sept 20, 2021, in English and key south Asian languages, to summarise smokeless tobacco policies and their impact. Inclusion criteria were all types of studies on smokeless tobacco users that mentioned any smokeless tobacco relevant policies since 2005, except systematic reviews. Policies issued by organisations or private institutions were excluded as well as studies on e-cigarettes and Electronic Nicotine Delivery System except where harm reduction or switching were evaluated as a tobacco cessation strategy. Two reviewers independently screened articles, and data were extracted after standardisation. Quality of studies was appraised using the Effective Public Health Practice Project's Quality Assessment Tool. Outcomes for impact assessment included smokeless tobacco prevalence, uptake, cessation, and health effects. Due to substantial heterogeneity in the descriptions of policies and outcomes, data were descriptively and narratively synthesised. This systematic review was registered in PROSPERO (CRD42020191946). FINDINGS: 14 317 records were identified, of which 252 eligible studies were included as describing smokeless tobacco policies. 57 countries had policies targeting smokeless tobacco, of which 17 had policies outside the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control for smokeless tobacco (eg, spitting bans). 18 studies evaluated the impact, which were of variable quality (six strong, seven moderate, and five weak) and reported mainly on prevalence of smokeless tobacco use. The body of work evaluating policy initiatives based on the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control found that these initiatives were associated with reductions in smokeless tobacco prevalence of between 4·4% and 30·3% for taxation and 22·2% and 70·9% for multifaceted policies. Two studies evaluating the non-Framework policy of sales bans reported significant reductions in smokeless tobacco sale (6·4%) and use (combined sex 17·6%); one study, however, reported an increased trend in smokeless tobacco use in the youth after a total sales ban, likely due to cross-border smuggling. The one study reporting on cessation found a 13·3% increase in quit attempts in individuals exposed (47·5%) to Framework Convention on Tobacco Control policy: education, communication, training, and public awareness, compared with non-exposed (34·2%). INTERPRETATION: Many countries have implemented smokeless tobacco control policies, including those that extend beyond the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. The available evidence suggests that taxation and multifaceted policy initiatives are associated with meaningful reductions in smokeless tobacco use. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research

Comparative Genomics of Emerging Human Ehrlichiosis Agents

Anaplasma (formerly Ehrlichia) phagocytophilum, Ehrlichia chaffeensis, and Neorickettsia (formerly Ehrlichia) sennetsu are intracellular vector-borne pathogens that cause human ehrlichiosis, an emerging infectious disease. We present the complete genome sequences of these organisms along with comparisons to other organisms in the Rickettsiales order. Ehrlichia spp. and Anaplasma spp. display a unique large expansion of immunodominant outer membrane proteins facilitating antigenic variation. All Rickettsiales have a diminished ability to synthesize amino acids compared to their closest free-living relatives. Unlike members of the Rickettsiaceae family, these pathogenic Anaplasmataceae are capable of making all major vitamins, cofactors, and nucleotides, which could confer a beneficial role in the invertebrate vector or the vertebrate host. Further analysis identified proteins potentially involved in vacuole confinement of the Anaplasmataceae, a life cycle involving a hematophagous vector, vertebrate pathogenesis, human pathogenesis, and lack of transovarial transmission. These discoveries provide significant insights into the biology of these obligate intracellular pathogens

What is governance?

The politics and administration of institutional chang