Consistency and heterogeneity of individual behavior under uncertainty

By using graphical representations of simple portfolio choice problems, we generate a very rich data set to study behavior under uncertainty at the level of the individual subject. We test the data for consistency with the maximization hypothesis, and we estimate preferences using a two-parameter utility function based on Faruk Gul (1991). This specification provides a good interpretation of the data at the individual level and can account for the highly heterogeneous behaviors observed in the laboratory. The parameter estimates jointly describe attitudes toward risk and allow us to characterize the distribution of risk preferences in the population

Dynamic Transmission Modeling:A Report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force-5

AbstractThe transmissible nature of communicable diseases is what sets them apart from other diseases modeled by health economists. The probability of a susceptible individual becoming infected at any one point in time (the force of infection) is related to the number of infectious individuals in the population, will change over time, and will feed back into the future force of infection. These nonlinear interactions produce transmission dynamics that require specific consideration when modeling an intervention that has an impact on the transmission of a pathogen. Best practices for designing and building these models are set out in this article

Static Code Verification Through Process Models

In this extended abstract, we combine two techniques for program verification: one is Hoare-style static verification, and the other is model checking of state transition systems. We relate the two techniques semantically through the use of a ghost variable. Actions that are performed by the program can be logged into this variable, building an event structure as its value. We require the event structure to grow incrementally by construction, giving it behavior suitable for model checking. Invariants specify a correspondence between the event structure and the program state. The combined power of model checking and static code verification with separation logic based reasoning, gives a new and intuitive way to do program verification. We describe our idea in a tool-agnostic way: we do not give implementation details, nor do we assume that the static verification tool to which our idea might apply is implemented in a particular way

The impact of relative position and returns on sacrifice and reciprocity: an experimental study using individual decisions

We present a comprehensive experimental design that makes it possible to characterize other-regarding preferences and their relationship to the decision maker’s relative position. Participants are faced with a large number of decisions involving variations in the trade-offs between own and other’s payoffs, as well as in other potentially important factors like the decision maker’s relative position. We find that: (1) choices are responsive to the cost of helping and hurting others; (2) The weight a decision maker places on others’ monetary payoffs depends on whether the decision maker is in an advantageous or disadvantageous relative position; and (3) We find no evidence of reciprocity of the type linked to menu-dependence. The results of a mixture-model estimation show considerable heterogeneity in subjects’ motivations and confirm the absence of reciprocal motives. Pure selfish behavior is the most frequently observed behavior. Among the subjects exhibiting social preferences, social-welfare maximization is the most frequent, followed by inequality-aversion and by competitiveness

Does the lipid-lowering peroxisome proliferator-activated receptors ligand bezafibrate prevent colon cancer in patients with coronary artery disease?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Epidemiologic studies have suggested that hypertriglyceridemia and insulin resistance are related to the development of colon cancer. Nuclear peroxisome proliferator-activated receptors (PPAR), which play a central role in lipid and glucose metabolism, had been hypothesized as being involved in colon cancerogenesis. In animal studies the lipid-lowering PPAR ligand bezafibrate suppressed colonic tumors. However, the effect of bezafibrate on colon cancer development in humans is unknown. Therefore, we proposed to investigate a possible preventive effect of bezafibrate on the development of colon cancer in patients with coronary artery disease during a 6-year follow-up.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Our population included 3011 patients without any cancer diagnosis who were enrolled in the randomized, double blind Bezafibrate Infarction Prevention (BIP) Study. The patients received either 400 mg of bezafibrate retard (1506 patients) or placebo (1505 patients) once a day. Cancer incidence data were obtained by matching a subject's identification numbers with the National Cancer Registry. Each matched record was checked for correct identification.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Development of new cancer (all types) was recorded in 177 patients: in 79 (5.25%) patients from the bezafibrate group vs. 98 (6.51%) from the placebo group. Development of colon cancer was recorded in 25 patients: in 8 (0.53%) patients from the bezafibrate group vs. 17 (1.13%) from the placebo group, (Fisher's exact test: one side p = 0.05; two side p = 0.07).</p> <p>A difference in the incidence of cancer was only detectable after a 4 year lag and progressively increased with continued follow-up. On multivariable analysis the colon cancer risk in patients who received bezafibrate tended to be lower with a hazard ratio of 0.47 and 95% confidence interval 0.2–1.1.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our data, derived from patients with coronary artery disease, support the hypothesis regarding a possible preventive effect of bezafibrate on the development of colon cancer.</p

Predicting the public health benefit of vaccinating cattle against Escherichia coli O157

Identifying the major sources of risk in disease transmission is key to designing effective controls. However, understanding of transmission dynamics across species boundaries is typically poor, making the design and evaluation of controls particularly challenging for zoonotic pathogens. One such global pathogen is Escherichia coli O157, which causes a serious and sometimes fatal gastrointestinal illness. Cattle are the main reservoir for E. coli O157, and vaccines for cattle now exist. However, adoption of vaccines is being delayed by conflicting responsibilities of veterinary and public health agencies, economic drivers, and because clinical trials cannot easily test interventions across species boundaries, lack of information on the public health benefits. Here, we examine transmission risk across the cattle–human species boundary and show three key results. First, supershedding of the pathogen by cattle is associated with the genetic marker stx2. Second, by quantifying the link between shedding density in cattle and human risk, we show that only the relatively rare supershedding events contribute significantly to human risk. Third, we show that this finding has profound consequences for the public health benefits of the cattle vaccine. A naïve evaluation based on efficacy in cattle would suggest a 50% reduction in risk; however, because the vaccine targets the major source of human risk, we predict a reduction in human cases of nearly 85%. By accounting for nonlinearities in transmission across the human–animal interface, we show that adoption of these vaccines by the livestock industry could prevent substantial numbers of human E. coli O157 cases

Improving Access and Mental Health for Youth Through Virtual Models of Care

The overall objective of this research is to evaluate the use of a mobile health smartphone application (app) to improve the mental health of youth between the ages of 14–25 years, with symptoms of anxiety/depression. This project includes 115 youth who are accessing outpatient mental health services at one of three hospitals and two community agencies. The youth and care providers are using eHealth technology to enhance care. The technology uses mobile questionnaires to help promote self-assessment and track changes to support the plan of care. The technology also allows secure virtual treatment visits that youth can participate in through mobile devices. This longitudinal study uses participatory action research with mixed methods. The majority of participants identified themselves as Caucasian (66.9%). Expectedly, the demographics revealed that Anxiety Disorders and Mood Disorders were highly prevalent within the sample (71.9% and 67.5% respectively). Findings from the qualitative summary established that both staff and youth found the software and platform beneficial

Improving Access and Mental Health For Youth Using Smart Technologies

The overall objective of this research is to evaluate the use of a mobile health smartphone application (app) to improve the mental health of youth between the ages of 14 and 25 years, with symptoms of anxiety and/or depression. This project includes 122 youth who are accessing outpatient mental health services at one of three hospitals and two community agencies. The youth and care providers are using the Smart technology to enhance care. The technology uses mobile questionnaires (QnairesTM) to help promote self-assessment and track changes to support the plan of care. The youth were provided a smartphone and talk/text/data plan, if needed. The majority of participants identified themselves as Caucasian (73.5%). Expectedly, the demographics revealed that Anxiety Disorders and Mood Disorders were highly prevalent within the sample (73.6% and 66.9% respectively). Findings from the qualitative summary established that both staff and youth found having a smartphone and data plan beneficial. Demographic variables such as age, sex, mental health and physical health did not predict which youth were more likely to use the application

Corruption in Developing Countries

Recent years have seen a remarkable expansion in economists' ability to measure corruption. This in turn has led to a new generation of well-identified, microeconomic studies. We review the evidence on corruption in developing countries in light of these recent advances, focusing on three questions: how much corruption is there, what are the efficiency consequences of corruption, and what determines the level of corruption? We find robust evidence that corruption responds to standard economic incentive theory but also that the effects of anticorruption policies often attenuate as officials find alternate strategies to pursue rents.Hewlett-Packard CompanyGreat Britain. Dept. for International DevelopmentMassachusetts Institute of Technology. Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab (Governance Initiative