Bayesian Inference in Processing Experimental Data: Principles and Basic Applications

This report introduces general ideas and some basic methods of the Bayesian probability theory applied to physics measurements. Our aim is to make the reader familiar, through examples rather than rigorous formalism, with concepts such as: model comparison (including the automatic Ockham's Razor filter provided by the Bayesian approach); parametric inference; quantification of the uncertainty about the value of physical quantities, also taking into account systematic effects; role of marginalization; posterior characterization; predictive distributions; hierarchical modelling and hyperparameters; Gaussian approximation of the posterior and recovery of conventional methods, especially maximum likelihood and chi-square fits under well defined conditions; conjugate priors, transformation invariance and maximum entropy motivated priors; Monte Carlo estimates of expectation, including a short introduction to Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods.Comment: 40 pages, 2 figures, invited paper for Reports on Progress in Physic

From SOMAmer-Based Biomarker Discovery to Diagnostic and Clinical Applications: A SOMAmer-Based, Streamlined Multiplex Proteomic Assay

Recently, we reported a SOMAmer-based, highly multiplexed assay for the purpose of biomarker identification. To enable seamless transition from highly multiplexed biomarker discovery assays to a format suitable and convenient for diagnostic and life-science applications, we developed a streamlined, plate-based version of the assay. The plate-based version of the assay is robust, sensitive (sub-picomolar), rapid, can be highly multiplexed (upwards of 60 analytes), and fully automated. We demonstrate that quantification by microarray-based hybridization, Luminex bead-based methods, and qPCR are each compatible with our platform, further expanding the breadth of proteomic applications for a wide user community

Disaster Situation and Humanitarian Emergency – In-Between Responses to the Refugee Crisis in Germany

In 2015, the needs of hundreds of thousands of refugees who arrived in Germany could only be met by deploying all available civil protection units. This article presents procedures and practices of state and non-state formal actors in the field of civil protection and related crisis management structures implemented and established across the board in the municipalities, the Federal Government and mass shelters, in particular in Bavaria. From a disaster research and humanitarian studies perspective we use the concept of “patterns of interpretation” to analyse the application of the “humanitarian emergency” and the “disaster situation” procedures to discuss whether the situation can really be categorized as “either-or” or whether the coexistence of the two served a function in managing such a complex situation. Finally, we discuss some developments that occurred after 2015/16 and consider the extent to which these developments shift or expand the existing patterns of interpretation

Educational effects of early or later secondary school tracking in Germany

This paper examines educational outcomes of pupils selected to secondary school types by different tracking regimes in a German state: Pupils are alternatively streamed after fourth grade or after sixth grade. Regression results indicate that, estimated on the mean, there are no negative effects of later tracking on educational outcomes in the middle of secondary school. Positive effects are observed for pupils with a less favorable family background. Quantile regressions reveal that the estimated effects of later tracking are positive for the lower quantiles but decrease monotonically over the conditional distribution of test scores

Occupational risk of tuberculosis transmission in a low incidence area

BACKGROUND: To investigate the occupational risk of tuberculosis (TB) infection in a low-incidence setting, data from a prospective study of patients with culture-confirmed TB conducted in Hamburg, Germany, from 1997 to 2002 were evaluated. METHODS: M. tuberculosis isolates were genotyped by IS6110 RFLP analysis. Results of contact tracing and additional patient interviews were used for further epidemiological analyses. RESULTS: Out of 848 cases included in the cluster analysis, 286 (33.7%) were classified into 76 clusters comprising 2 to 39 patients. In total, two patients in the non-cluster and eight patients in the cluster group were health-care workers. Logistic regression analysis confirmed work in the health-care sector as the strongest predictor for clustering (OR 17.9). However, only two of the eight transmission links among the eight clusters involving health-care workers had been detected previously. Overall, conventional contact tracing performed before genotyping had identified only 26 (25.2%) of the 103 contact persons with the disease among the clustered cases whose transmission links were epidemiologically verified. CONCLUSION: Recent transmission was found to be strongly associated with health-care work in a setting with low incidence of TB. Conventional contact tracing alone was shown to be insufficient to discover recent transmission chains. The data presented also indicate the need for establishing improved TB control strategies in health-care settings

All-cause and Cardiovascular mortality among ethnic German immigrants from the Former Soviet Union: a cohort study

BACKGROUND: Migration is a phenomenon of particular Public Health importance. Since 1990, almost 2 million ethnic Germans (Aussiedler) have migrated from the former Soviet Union (FSU) to Germany. This study compares their overall and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality to that of Germany's general population. Because of high overall and CVD mortality in the FSU and low socio-economic status of Aussiedler in Germany, we hypothesize that their mortality is higher. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study for 1990–2002 with data of 34,393 Aussiedler. We assessed vital status at population registries and causes of death at the state statistical office. We calculated standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) for the whole cohort and substrata of covariables such as age, sex and family size. To assess multivariate effects, we used Poisson regression. RESULTS: 1657 cohort members died before December 31, 2002, and 680 deaths (41.03%) were due to CVD. The SMR for the whole cohort was 0.85 (95%-CI 0.81–0.89) for all causes of death and 0.79 (95%-CI 0.73–0.85) for CVD. SMRs were higher than one for younger Aussiedler and lower for older ones. There was no clear effect of duration of stay on SMRs. For 1990–93, SMRs were significantly lower than in subsequent years. In families comprising at least five members upon arrival in Germany, SMRs were significantly lower than in smaller families. CONCLUSION: In contrast to our hypothesis on migrants' health, overall and CVD mortality among Aussiedler is lower than in Germany's general population. Possible explanations are a substantially better health status of Aussiedler in the FSU as compared to the local average, a higher perceived socio-economic status of Aussiedler in Germany, or selection effects. SMR differences between substrata need further exploration, and risk factor data are needed