Evolutionary dynamics of the cryptocurrency market

The cryptocurrency market surpassed the barrier of $100 billion market capitalization in June 2017, after months of steady growth. Despite its increasing relevance in the financial world, a comprehensive analysis of the whole system is still lacking, as most studies have focused exclusively on the behaviour of one (Bitcoin) or few cryptocurrencies. Here, we consider the history of the entire market and analyse the behaviour of 1469 cryptocurrencies introduced between April 2013 and May 2017. We reveal that, while new cryptocurrencies appear and disappear continuously and their market capitalization is increasing (super-)exponentially, several statistical properties of the market have been stable for years. These include the number of active cryptocurrencies, market share distribution and the turnover of cryptocurrencies. Adopting an ecological perspective, we show that the so-called neutral model of evolution is able to reproduce a number of key empirical observations, despite its simplicity and the assumption of no selective advantage of one cryptocurrency over another. Our results shed light on the properties of the cryptocurrency market and establish a first formal link between ecological modelling and the study of this growing system. We anticipate they will spark further research in this direction

Overconfidence, incentives and digit ratio

This paper contributes to a better understanding of the biological underpinnings of overconfidence by analyzing performance predictions in the Cognitive Reflection Test with and without monetary incentives. In line with the existing literature we find that the participants are too optimistic about their performance on average; incentives lead to higher performance; and males score higher than females on this particular task. The novelty of this paper is an analysis of the relation between participants’ performance prediction accuracy and their second to fourth digit ratio. It has been reported that the digit ratio is a negatively correlated bio-marker of prenatal testosterone exposure. In the un-incentivized treatment, we find that males with low digit ratios, on average, are significantly more overconfident about their performance. In the incentivized treatment, however, we observe that males with low digit ratios, on average, are less overconfident about their performance. These effects are not observed in females. We discuss how these findings fit into the literature on testosterone and decision making and how they might help to explain seemingly opposing evidence

Stellar triples with chemically homogeneously evolving inner binaries

Observations suggest that massive stellar triples are common. However, their evolution is not yet fully understood. We investigate the evolution of hierarchical triples in which the stars of the inner binary experience chemically homogeneous evolution (CHE), particularly to understand the role of the tertiary star in the formation of gravitational-wave (GW) sources. We use the triple-star rapid population synthesis code tres to determine the evolution of these systems at two representative metallicities: Z = 0.005 and Z = 0.0005. About half of all triples harbouring a CHE inner binary (CHE triples) experience tertiary mass transfer (TMT) episodes, an event which is rare for classically evolving stars. In the majority of TMT episodes, the inner binary consists of two main-sequence stars (58--60 per cent) or two black holes (BHs, 24-31 per cent). Additionally, we explore the role of von Zeipel-Lidov-Kozai (ZLK) oscillations for CHE triples. ZLK oscillations can result in eccentric stellar mergers or lead to the formation of eccentric compact binaries in systems with initial outer pericentre smaller than ∼ 1200 R⊙. Approximately 24-30 per cent of CHE triples form GW sources, and in 31 per cent of these, the tertiary star plays a significant role and leads to configurations that are not predicted for isolated binaries. We conclude that the evolution of CHE binaries can be affected by a close tertiary companion, resulting in astronomical transients such as BH--BH binaries that merge via GW emission orders of magnitude faster than their isolated binary counterparts and tertiary-driven massive stellar mergers

Geospatial reference data access for emergency response: data inventory and quality assessment

Proceedings on C

Rank monotonicity in centrality measures

A measure of centrality is rank monotone if after adding an arc x -> y, all nodes with a score smaller than (or equal to) y have still a score smaller than (or equal to) y. If, in particular, all nodes with a score smaller than or equal to y get a score smaller than y (i.e., all ties with y are broken in favor of y), the measure is called strictly rank monotone. We prove that harmonic centrality is strictly rank monotone, whereas closeness is just rank monotone on strongly connected graphs, and that some other measures, including betweenness, are not rank monotone at all (sometimes not even on strongly connected graphs). Among spectral measures, damped scores such as Katz's index and PageRank are strictly rank monotone on all graphs, whereas the dominant eigenvector is strictly monotone on strongly connected graphs only