On the stochastics of human and artificial creativity

What constitutes human creativity, and is it possible for computers to exhibit genuine creativity? We argue that achieving human-level intelligence in computers, or so-called Artificial General Intelligence, necessitates attaining also human-level creativity. We contribute to this discussion by developing a statistical representation of human creativity, incorporating prior insights from stochastic theory, psychology, philosophy, neuroscience, and chaos theory. This highlights the stochastic nature of the human creative process, which includes both a bias guided, random proposal step, and an evaluation step depending on a flexible or transformable bias structure. The acquired representation of human creativity is subsequently used to assess the creativity levels of various contemporary AI systems. Our analysis includes modern AI algorithms such as reinforcement learning, diffusion models, and large language models, addressing to what extent they measure up to human level creativity. We conclude that these technologies currently lack the capability for autonomous creative action at a human level.Comment: 40 pages, 1 figure with 2 sub-figure

A genetic and spatial Bayesian analysis of mastitis resistance

A nationwide health card recording system for dairy cattle was introduced in Norway in 1975 (the Norwegian Cattle Health Services). The data base holds information on mastitis occurrences on an individual cow basis. A reduction in mastitis frequency across the population is desired, and for this purpose risk factors are investigated. In this paper a Bayesian proportional hazards model is used for modelling the time to first veterinary treatment of clinical mastitis, including both genetic and environmental covariates. Sire effects were modelled as shared random components, and veterinary district was included as an environmental effect with prior spatial smoothing. A non-informative smoothing prior was assumed for the baseline hazard, and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods (MCMC) were used for inference. We propose a new measure of quality for sires, in terms of their posterior probability of being among the, say 10% best sires. The probability is an easily interpretable measure that can be directly used to rank sires. Estimating these complex probabilities is straightforward in an MCMC setting. The results indicate considerable differences between sires with regards to their daughters disease resistance. A regional effect was also discovered with the lowest risk of disease in the south-eastern parts of Norway

Does academia disfavor contextual and extraverted students

In a study conducted at Norwegian University of Life Sciences (NMBU) 288 students volunteered to answer an electronic questionnaire constructed to classify their personality type (16 categories), their work habits and preferences, operational values and preferred direction (leadership). In addition exam grades from nine undergraduate subjects, some mathematical and some non-mathematical, were obtained for the same students. Statistical analyses revealed a clear connection between grades and some personality characteristics. This should by no means interpreted as differences in skills, but rather as an indication of biased teaching style and pedagogical structure in the university. The results show across all the nine subjects that the traditional teaching structure in universities with lectures in large auditoriums with limited dialog, a rigid and structured curriculum, textbook reading and paper-and-pencil tests, clearly disfavors students which can be characterized as extraverted and contextual/relational, and to some extent also those being intuitive and feeling. Among these students we typically find those being altruistic, creative and out-of-the box thinking. It is suggestive that academia, to probably a large extent, fail to bring such resourceful people to positions were their talents really can make a difference, for instance in research

PROFIL MODEL MENTAL SISWA PADA MATERI KELARUTAN DAN HASIL KALI KELARUTAN DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN TDM-POE

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memperoleh profil model mental siswa pada materi materi kelarutan dan hasil kali kelarutan. Subyek penelitian yaitu siswa SMA kelas XI yang terdiri dari 30 siswa di beberapa SMA di kota Bandung yang sudah mempelajari materi kelarutan dan hasil kali kelarutan. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini yaitu metode deskriptif dengan instrumen penelitian berupa tes diagnostik model mental predict-observe-explain (TDM-POE). Jawaban siswa pada tahap prediksi mencakup level submikroskopik, tahap observasi mencakup level makroskopik dan tahap eksplanasi yaitu mempertautkan ketiga level representasi (makroskopik, submikroskopik dan simbolik). Pada konsep terbentuknya endapan, sebagian siswa cenderung hanya memahami secara makroskopik tapi tidak dapat memahami secara submikroskopik. Pada konsep penambahan ion senama, 9 dari 30 siswa yang mampu menjelaskan berdasarkan prinsip pergeseran kesetimbangan dan secara perhitungan. Pada konsep pengaruh pH, 20 dari 30 siswa tidak mampu menjelaskan secara submikroskopik dan simbolik. Siswa mengalami kesulitan dalam mempertautkan ketiga level representasi pada kelarutan dan hasil kali kelarutan. Selain itu, ditemukan beberapa miskonsepsi mengenai konsep terbentuknya endapan, pengaruh ion senama, dan pengaruh pH pada materi kelarutan dan hasil kali kelarutan melalui TDM-POE. ----------- The purpose of this study is to gain mental model of the student profile of solubility and solubility product concept. Subject of the research are 30 high school students grade XI in Bandung who have studied of solubility and solubility product concept. The method used in this research is descriptive with the research instrument used mental models diagnostic test predict-observe-explain (TDM-POE). The students’ answer on the stage predict convered submicroscopic level, observe the convered macroscopic level and explanation the convered macroscopik, submicroscopic and simbolic level. On concept of formation of precipitate, some student to understands the macroscopic level but can’t understand the submicroscopic level. On the common ion effect concept 9 of 30 student are able to explain based on the principle of equilibrium and calculations. On the concept of the effect of pH, 20 of 30 students can’t explain in submicroscopik and symbolic levels. Students having difficulty when combine in the third level of representation of solubility and solubility product. There are some misconceptions that was found about the concept of formation of precipitate, the common ion effect, and the effect of pH in solubility and solubility product used of TDM-POE

Does academia disfavor contextual and extraverted students

-In a study conducted at Norwegian University of Life Sciences (NMBU) 288 students volunteered to answer an electronic questionnaire constructed to classify their personality type (16 categories), their work habits and preferences, operational values and preferred direction (leadership). In addition exam grades from nine undergraduate subjects, some mathematical and some non-mathematical, were obtained for the same students. Statistical analyses revealed a clear connection between grades and some personality characteristics. This should by no means interpreted as differences in skills, but rather as an indication of biased teaching style and pedagogical structure in the university. The results show across all the nine subjects that the traditional teaching structure in universities with lectures in large auditoriums with limited dialog, a rigid and structured curriculum, textbook reading and paper-and-pencil tests, clearly disfavors students which can be characterized as extraverted and contextual/relational, and to some extent also those being intuitive and feeling. Among these students we typically find those being altruistic, creative and out-of-the box thinking. It is suggestive that academia, to probably a large extent, fail to bring such resourceful people to positions were their talents really can make a difference, for instance in research

Adapting Statistics Education to a Cognitively Heterogeneous Student Population

publishedVersio

Light traps fail to estimate reliable malaria mosquito biting rates on Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea

BACKGROUND: The human biting rate (HBR), an important parameter for assessing malaria transmission and evaluating vector control interventions, is commonly estimated by human landing collections (HLC). Although intense efforts have been made to find alternative non-exposure mosquito collection methods, HLC remains the standard for providing reliable and consistent HBRs. The aim of this study was to assess the relationship between human landing and light trap collections (LTC), in an attempt to estimate operationally feasible conversion factors between the two. The study was conducted as part of the operational research component of the Bioko Island Malaria Control Project (BIMCP), Equatorial Guinea. METHODS: Malaria mosquitoes were collected indoors and outdoors by HLCs and LTCs in three villages on Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea during five bimonthly collections in 2009. Indoor light traps were suspended adjacent to occupied long-lasting, insecticide-treated bed nets. Outdoor light traps were placed close to the outer wall under the roof of the collection house. Collected specimens were subjected to DNA extraction and diagnostic PCR to identify species within the Anopheles gambiae complex. Data were analysed by simple regression of log-transformed values and by Bayesian regression analysis. RESULTS: There was a poor correlation between the two collection methods. Results varied by location, venue, month, house, but also by the statistical method used. The more robust Bayesian analyses indicated non-linear relationships and relative sampling efficiencies being density dependent for the indoor collections, implying that straight-forward and simple conversion factors could not be calculated for any of the locations. Outdoor LTC:HLC relationships were weak, but could be estimated at 0.10 and 0.07 for each of two locations. CONCLUSIONS: Light trap collections in combination with bed nets are not recommended as a reliable method to assess human biting rates on Bioko Island. Different statistical analyses methods give variable and inconsistent results. Substantial variation in collection methods prevents the determination of reliable and operationally feasible conversion factors for both indoor and outdoor data. Until improved mosquito collection methods are developed that can provide reliable and unbiased HBR estimates, HLCs should continue to serve as the reference method for HBR estimation

Brown bear (Ursus arctos) attacks resulting in human casualties in Scandinavia 1977-2016; management implications and recommendations

publishedVersio

Behavioral and Physiological Responses of Scandinavian Brown Bears (Ursus arctos) to Dog Hunts and Human Encounters

Innovations in biologging have offered new possibilities to better understand animals in their natural environment. Biologgers can be used by researchers to measure the impact of human disturbances on wildlife and guide conservation decisions. In this study, the behavioral and physiological responses of brown bears (Ursus arctos) to hunts using dogs (Canis lupus familiaris) and human encounters were assessed to better understand the impact of human outdoor activities on brown bears. In Scandinavia, brown bear hunting and the use of dogs during hunts is increasing in popularity. Nonetheless, not every hunt leads to a killed bear. This means that for each bear that is shot, multiple bears may be chased but not killed. In addition, bears can also be disturbed when encountering non-hunting humans. Heart rates, body temperatures, GPS coordinates and dual-axis activity data were collected from 52 simulated hunts (a simulated hunt using dogs with the bear allowed to flee at the end) and 70 human encounters (humans intentionally approaching the bear) that were carried out on 28 free-ranging female brown bears in two study areas in Sweden. The results showed that: (1) simulated hunts had a greater impact and induced a greater energy cost than human encounters; (2) the amount of time bears rested the day after the simulated hunts increased linearly with the duration of the simulated hunts, implying a lasting behavioral impact relative to the intensity of the disturbance. Although not tested in this study, brown bears that are repeatedly disturbed by dog hunts and human encounters may be unable to compensate the disturbances' energy cost, and their fitness may, therefore, be altered. If it is the case, this effect should be accounted for by managers