Poland as an inflation nutter: The story of successful output stabilization

The goal of the paper is to verify whether the National Bank of Poland (NBP) follows pure inflation targeting. The contemporaneous and forward looking, numerous Taylor rules estimated with the OLS and GMM methods provided weak evidence of any significant importance attached by NBP to output stabilization in the reaction function. The strong focus of NBP on its primary target has led to a satisfactory performance of the central bank in stabilizing the real economy. This suggests the basic conclusion that pure inflation targeters may perform equally fine in stabilizing the real economy as countries which officially attach importance to output stabilization.The goal of the paper is to verify whether the National Bank of Poland (NBP) follows pure inflation targeting. The contemporaneous and forward looking, numerous Taylor rules estimated with the OLS and GMM methods provided weak evidence of any significant importance attached by NBP to output stabilization in the reaction function. The strong focus of NBP on its primary target has led to a satisfactory performance of the central bank in stabilizing the real economy. This suggests the basic conclusion that pure inflation targeters may perform equally fine in stabilizing the real economy as countries which officially attach importance to output stabilization

Kryzys na amerykańskim rynku nieruchomości – ocena zagrożenia Polski

Celem artykułu jest odpowiedź na pytanie, w jakim stopniu Polska jest narażona na negatywne konsekwencje kryzysu na amerykańskim rynku nieruchomości. Do wspomnianych konsekwencji zaliczyć można: spadek PKB, spadek popytu konsumpcyjnego, malejące zainteresowanie udzielaniem kredytów, spadek inwestycji, zmiany kursów walutowych oraz migracje kapitałów. Przedstawione zostanie także porównanie sposobów przeciwdziałania skutkom kryzysu stosowanych przez Unię Europejską, Stany Zjednoczonei Polskę. Zróżnicowane sposoby działania dotyczą przede wszystkim różnych reakcji stóp procentowych. Wielorakie reakcje poszczególnych krajów na kryzys stanowią jedną ze zmiennych umożliwiających ocenę sposobu postępowania Polski w okresie kryzysu oraz jakości polskiej polityki pieniężnej w tym trudnym okresie

IS DEFLATION TRAP A SERIOUS THREAT? CASE STUDY OF FED, ECB AND NBP

The goal of the paper is to compare nonstandard solutions implemented by Federal Reserve System, European Central Bank and National Bank of Poland in response to the outbreak of a subrime crisis in United States and to debt crisis in European Union. For that purpose there is carried out a comparative, descriptive analysis of institutional steps taken by the three central banks and the governments to preserve macroeconomic stability. The nonstandard measures allowed to avoid a comeback of the Great Depression and restored market’s confidence, unfortunately at the cost of decreased resilience for future possible crises along with many other medium and long run unintended consequences.The goal of the paper is to compare nonstandard solutions implemented by Federal Reserve System, European Central Bank and National Bank of Poland in response to the outbreak of a subrime crisis in United States and to debt crisis in European Union. For that purpose there is carried out a comparative, descriptive analysis of institutional steps taken by the three central banks and the governments to preserve macroeconomic stability. The nonstandard measures allowed to avoid a comeback of the Great Depression and restored market’s confidence, unfortunately at the cost of decreased resilience for future possible crises along with many other medium and long run unintended consequences

Modern central banking from monetary perspective

Motivation: Cashless or DSGE models did not allow to predict the Great Recession — which may suggest that they omit some important variables like money or credit, for instance.Aim: The paper summarizes changing views on money’s importance in modern monetary policy and reviews pros and cons of assigning any special role to money by central banks.Results: On the basis of literature review and the 2007–2009 crisis experiences, author apposes arguments for possible improvements in monetary policy frameworks. The paper is organized as follows: section 1 reviews some basic facts about monetary aggregates, section 2 presents the methodology of the research, section 3 discusses pros and cons of assigning special relevance to money in central banking, section 4 concludes

IS DEFLATION TRAP A SERIOUS THREAT? CASE STUDY OF FED, ECB AND NBP

The goal of the paper is to compare nonstandard solutions implemented by Federal Reserve System, European Central Bank and National Bank of Poland in response to the outbreak of a subrime crisis in United States and to debt crisis in European Union. For that purpose there is carried out a comparative, descriptive analysis of institutional steps taken by the three central banks and the governments to preserve macroeconomic stability. The nonstandard measures allowed to avoid a comeback of the Great Depression and restored market’s confidence, unfortunately at the cost of decreased resilience for future possible crises along with many other medium and long run unintended consequences

Effects of Being in an Occupation Is ISCO 1 Digit Classification Enough to Model Wages in Poland

Contrary to neoclassical assumptions of perfect competition, there is a consensus that factors affecting wages include sex, level of education, age, job experience, occupation, post, work-related responsibility and a whole set of personality traits. The paper presents an econometric model that allows to explain wage differences in Poland and extends analyses of wage determinants in Poland by taking into account occupations broken down in accordance with the 2-digit level of International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO). The analysis shows that ISCO 2 digit level is an important and statistically significant determinant of wages in Poland, while models of wages basing on ISCO 1 digit might be not enough to properly capture the role of occupations.W przeciwieństwie do neoklasycznych założeń doskonałej konkurencji istnieje konsensus, że do czynników wpływających na wysokość uzyskiwanego wynagrodzenia zaliczyć należy płeć, poziom wykształcenia, wiek, doświadczenie zawodowe, wykonywany zawód, posiadane stanowisko, stopień odpowiedzialności związanej z wykonywaną pracą oraz cały zestaw indywidualnych cech osobowościowych. W artykule posługując się Międzynarodową Klasyfikacją Zawodów i Specjalności (ISCO) na poziomie 2 cyfr uzyskano oceny parametrów strukturalnych modelu, które pozwalają wyjaśnić różnice wynagrodzeń w Polsce. Na podstawie przeprowadzonej analizy stwierdzono, że wykonywany zawód, mierzony na poziomie ISCO 2 cyfry jest ważną i statystycznie istotną zmienną oddziałującą na wysokość uzyskiwanego wynagrodzenia w Polsce. Modelowanie wynagrodzeń wykorzystujące klasyfikację ISCO, ale ograniczoną tylko do poziomu 1 cyfry, może być niewystarczające, aby prawidłowo uchwycić znaczenie wykonywanego zawodu dla uzyskiwanego wynagrodzenia

ANALIZA PORÓWNAWCZA POLITYKI PIENIĘŻNEJ POLSKI I ZASADY MONETARY RULE W LATACH 1995-2007

Artykuł ten przedstawia porównanie strategii bezpośredniego celu inflacyjnego i Friedmanowskiej zasady monetary rule. Analizie poddana zostaje Polska w latach 1995-2007. Celem artykułu jest odpowiedź, który sposób działania jest skuteczniejszy i czy istnieją elementy wspólne dla obu strategii prowadzenia polityki pieniężnej

Gender Pay Gap In The Micro Level – Case Of Poland

The paper analyzes the size of the GPG in enterprises located in Poland and with at least 10 employees. For this purpose a linear model is constructed for individual data that allows to distinguish the influence of sex, occupation and education on the earnings. That allows to explain the size of income discrepancies caused by external, objective factors and assess the magnitude of sex discrimination

The Polish Regional Labour Market Welfare Indicator And Its Links To Other Well-being Measures

W artykule zaproponowano i skonstruowano zagregowany miernik dobrobytu na rynku pracy w Polsce na przykładzie roku 2013. Miernik ten okazał się pozytywnie skorelowany z poziomem cywilizacyjnym, dobrostanem społecznym, dobrobytem materialnym i dobrostanem psychicznym. Oznacza to, że wraz z polepszeniem się sytuacji na rynku pracy poprawia się jakość życia społeczeństwa w Polsce. Nie wykazano statystycznie istotnego związku między dobrobytem na rynku pracy a współczynnikiem dzietności.We propose and construct an indicator of labour market well-being in Poland for the year 2013. The indicator is positively related to the degree of civilizational welfare, social welfare, material welfare and psychological wellbeing in Poland. We conclude that ameliorating the labour market situation improves the quality of the public’s life. The link between our labour market indicator and the total fertility rate turned out to be statistically insignificant

Money, credit, house prices and quantitative easing – the wavelet perspective from 1970 to 2016

This paper investigates the relationship between money/credit growth and house price inflation for a sample of twelve developed countries. The novel application of the continuous wavelet transform showed significant but time-varying linkages between these two variables. During quantitative easing in the United States and the United Kingdom, growth of respectively broad money and bank credit was leading house price inflation for the 2-8 years cycle. In contrast to this, the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank either did not assign a separate role to house prices in their reaction functions or the two central banks were not capable to significantly increase house prices by extending money/credit during the business cycle. The significant co-movements of financial variables and house prices around booming episodes warn us that a new asset price boom might appear within the length of a business cycle as a consequence of overly expansionary monetary policy. In the euro area, the significant, long run, and close to a one-for-one link between growth of M3 and house price inflation is an argument for the monetary pillar of the European Central Bank. The present study contributes significantly to the literature by introducing a novel application of a continuous wavelet transform to study the housing prices in relation to money, credit and quantitative easing. The article uses a long-term dataset covering a period of almost half a century to analyse their varying relationship in the short-run to the long-run and from the historical perspective