Modelling the Marginal Abatement Cost of Mitigating Nitrogen Loss from Agricultural Land

working paperWith the deadline identified by the Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC) approaching in 2015 there is increasing pressure on policymakers to introduce new regulations to achieve water quality targets. Agriculture is one of the contributors of diffuse pollution entering watercourses and will come under pressure to reduce pollutant loads. This paper produces Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) Curves for eight policy measures that could potentially reduce nitrate leaching from agricultural land on Irish dairy farms. These include: 1) reduction of fertiliser application by 10%; 2) reduction of fertiliser application by 20%; 3) livestock unit reduction to limit organic N to 170 kg ha-1; 4) reduction of livestock units by 20%; 5) change of feed mix to reduce cow dietary N intake; 6) fencing off watercourses to introduce a buffer zone; 7) improved dairy cow genetic merit by introducing higher performing dairy breeds; 8) more efficient slurry application. Results from this study indicate that there will be reductions in farm gross margins across nearly all policy measures. However, MAC and the ranking of MAC vary across individual farms and aggregate MAC does not reflect the heterogeneity of impacts across individual farms. This paper shows that any measure introduced in a “one size fits all command-control” fashion will not yield efficient economic results

The Potential Economic Returns of Converting Agricultural Land to Forestry: An Analysis of System and Soil Effects from 1995 to 2009

peer-reviewedPrivate land owners have been responsible for the majority of annual afforestation in Ireland since the mid1990s, but planting rates have generally been declining since 2002. Although the decision to plant may be driven by a number of factors, the profitability of forestry as a landuse option should be an important driver and offer some insight into trends in afforestation rates. As farmers undertake most afforestation in Ireland it is important to account for the opportunity cost of lost agricultural income when analysing the financial outcome of planting. In addition, soil quality plays an essential role in dictating the productivity and profitability of both agriculture and forestry. This study examines the effects of soil quality and superseded agricultural system on the potential profitability of afforestation by farmers between 1995 and 2009. Data from the National Farm Survey were employed to identify the annual gross margins for six agricultural systems on six soil types that differ in terms of quality. The measures of soil quality were translated into potential yield classes for forestry using an existing productivity model and Teagasc’s Forest Investment and Valuation Estimator was employed to calculate the net present value of afforestation for each of the systems and soil types. The results demonstrate how the competitiveness of forestry as a landuse option is influenced by soil quality and superseded enterprise and how forestry has become more competitive with agricultural enterprises over the period of analysis.Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marin

Process Modeling for Simulation

This paper discusses shortfalls in relation to the requirements gathering phases of simulation. While many developments have taken place around supporting the model coding task of simulation, there are few tools available to assist in the requirements gathering phase. This is surprising as it has been reported by several researchers that the requirements phase can absorb twice as much resources as the coding phase. There are numerous process modeling tools available (over 100) that can and have been used to support the requirements phase of simulation. This paper provides a selective review of some of the most important in relation to simulation. A conclusion from this review is that none of the tools available adequately supports the requirements gathering phase of simulation. It is proposed that a process modeling tool be developed specifically to support simulation requirements gathering. The design objectives in the development of the tool are: (1) it should be capable of capturing a detailed description of a discrete event system; (2) it should have a low modeling burden and therefore be capable of being used by non-specialists; (3) it should present modeling information at a high semantic level so that manufacturing personnel can rationalize with it; (4) it should have good visualization capabilities; (5) it should support project teamwork. Based on these design objectives a proposed simulation process modeling tool called simulation activity diagrams (SAD) is presented

Appropriate Polypharmacy and Medicine Safety: When Many is not Too Many

The use of multiple medicines (polypharmacy) is increasingly common in middle-aged and older populations. Ensuring the correct balance between the prescribing of ‘many’ drugs and ‘too many’ drugs is a significant challenge. Clinicians are tasked with ensuring that patients receive the most appropriate combinations of medications based on the best available evidence, and that medication use is optimised according to patients’ clinical needs (appropriate polypharmacy). Historically, polypharmacy has been viewed negatively because of the associated medication safety risks, such as drug interactions and adverse drug events. More recently, polypharmacy has been identified as a risk factor for under-prescribing, such that patients do not receive necessary medications and this can also pose risks to patients’ safety and well-being. The negative connotations that have long been associated with the term polypharmacy could potentially be acting as a driving factor for under-prescribing, whereby clinicians are reluctant to prescribe necessary medicines for patients who are already receiving ‘many’ medicines. It is now recognised that the prescribing of ‘many’ medicines can be entirely appropriate in patients with several chronic conditions and that the risks of adverse drug events that have been associated with polypharmacy may be greatly reduced when patients’ clinical context is taken into consideration. In this article, we outline the current perspectives on polypharmacy and make the case for adopting the term ‘appropriate polypharmacy’ in differentiating between the prescribing of ‘many’ drugs and ‘too many’ drugs. We also outline the inherent challenges in doing so and provide recommendations for future clinical practice and research

Methodological Framework for Modelling the Impact of the Agriculture to Forestry Land Use Change at the Farm Level

pre-printData annexeThere is a growing literature on the use of microsimulation models for agriculture, forestry and land use change (Richardson et al., 2014). Much of this literature addresses issues related to productivity and incomes (O’Donoghue, 2014), however consistent with an increasing global focus on sustainability, there is also increasing interest in combining analyses of both economic and environmental impacts (Ramilan et al., 2011). A sub-field of agricultural microsimulation addresses issues associated with land-use change from agriculture to forestry and vice versa (Ryan and O’Donoghue, 2019; Phimmavong & Keenan, 2020) and vice versa. The former transition is particularly important as it helps to mitigate significant carbon emissions from agriculture. This paper describes the development of a model that incorporates both economic and environmental dimensions of the land-use change from agriculture to forestry.This research was supported by the SeQUEsTER Project (Scenarios Quantifying land Use & Emissions Transitions towards Equilibrium with Removals) (EPA Research Programme 2014-2020) - The EPA Research Programme is a Government of Ireland initiative funded by the Department of Communications, Climate Action and Environment, and undertaken as part of the Irish Land Uses (Stimulus Research Programme, project funded by Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine)

Developing a microsimulation model for farm forestry planting decisions

peer-reviewedThere is increasing pressure in Europe to convert land from agriculture to forestry which would enable the sequestration of additional carbon, thereby mitigating agricultural greenhouse gas production. However, there is little or no information available on the drivers of the land use change decision from agriculture to forestry at individual farm level, which is complicated by the inter-temporal nature of the decision.This paper describes a static microsimulation approach which provides a better understanding of the life-cycle relativity of forestry and agricultural incomes, using Ireland as a casestudy. The microsimulation methodology allows for the generation of actual and counterfactual forest and agricultural income streams and for other attributes of utility such as long-term wealth and leisure, for the first time. These attributes are then modelled using purpose built forest models and farm microdata from a 30 year longitudinal dataset. The results show the importance of financial drivers but additionally show that wealth and leisure are also important factors in this inter-temporal land use change decision. By facilitating the examination of the distribution of farms across the farming population, the use of a static microsimulation approach allows us to make a considerable contribution to the literature in relation to the underlying drivers of farm afforestation behaviour. In the broader context of Climate Smart Agriculture and the Grand Challenges facing the intensification of agricultural production, these findings have implications for policies that seek to optimize natural resource use

Spatial Microsimulation for Regional Analysis of Marine Related Employment

This paper presents a modelling framework that facilitates marine policy impact assessment at a scale that is below the national level. The spatial microsimulation approach provides a regional level of analysis not generally possible when dealing with ocean economy statistics that are often even difficult to compile at a national level and offers a powerful modelling tool for maritime spatial planning. The spatial microsimulation model is used to profile the spatial distribution of marine related employment in Ireland. It is then used to carry out a micro-level regional assessment of the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic restrictions on the distribution of employment in the Irish ocean economy. The results demonstrate that many of those made unemployed in the ocean economy during the first lock down were outside the main urban centers, particularly in the case of marine tourism and leisure and the marine natural resource based industries. The paper argues that the use of such spatial microsimulation approaches can facilitate a more evidence based policy response to an economic shock, such as the Covid-19 pandemic, in terms of industry and regional specific supports and can also inform more effective marine spatial planning

Farm economic sustainability in the European Union: A pilot study

The measurement of farm economic sustainability has received intermittent academic interest in recent times, while the conceptual discussions are often quite limited. Moreover, this concept receives more attention at periods of diffi culty for the sector. The measurement of farm viability is an important precondition to enrich these discussions. Therefore, it is necessary todevelop more comprehensive and detailed measurement techniques to provide more clarity on viability and vulnerability levels in the sector. This paper refocuses attention on this issue, using a pilot dataset collected at farm level across a range of EU Member States which facilitates the assessment of an additional category of viability, namely that of economically sustainablefarms, i.e. farms that are economically vulnerable but which are deemed sustainable by the presence of off-farm income. Differences in viability and economic sustainability across the eight surveyed Member States are shown. The analysis is sensitive to the factors included in the measurement of viability as well as to the threshold income used to defi ne viability. Although this is a pilot study, it enhances our understanding of the factors affecting cross-country evaluation of viability and sustainability, and the policy instruments that could improve viability levels