Probabilistic assessment of equivalent fracture aperture constrained on quasi-real-time drilling mud loss data

We provide a rigorous workflow to quantify the effects of key sources of uncertainty associated with equivalent fracture aperture estimates w constrained through mud loss information acquired while drilling a well in a reservoir. A stochastic inverse modeling framework is employed to estimate the probability distribution of w. This choice is consistent with the quantity and quality of available data. The approach allows assessing the probability that values of w inferred from mud loss events exceed a given threshold. We rely on a streamlined analytical solution to model mud losses while drilling. We explicitly consider uncertainties associated with model parameters and forcing terms, including drilling fluid rheological properties and flow rates, pore fluid pressure, and dynamic drilling fluid pressure. A synthetic scenario is considered to provide a transparent reference setting against which our stochastic inverse modeling workflow can be appraised. The approach is then applied to a real-case scenario. The latter is associated with data monitored on a rig site. A direct comparison of the impact of data collected through two common techniques (respectively, relying on flow meter sensors or pump strokes) on the ensuing probability of w is provided. A detailed analysis of the uncertainty related to the level of data corruption is also performed, considering various levels of measurement errors. Results associated with the field setting suggest that the proposed workflow yields probability distribution of w that are compatible with interpretations relying on traditional analyses of image logs. Results stemming from direct and indirect flow data display similar shapes. This suggests the viability of the probabilistic inversion methodology to assist quasi-real-time identification of equivalent fracture apertures on the basis of routinely acquired information during drilling

Hydration dynamics at fluorinated protein surfaces

Water-protein interactions dictate many processes crucial to protein function including folding, dynamics, interactions with other biomolecules, and enzymatic catalysis. Here we examine the effect of surface fluorination on water-protein interactions. Modification of designed coiled-coil proteins by incorporation of 5,5,5-trifluoroleucine or (4S)-2-amino-4-methylhexanoic acid enables systematic examination of the effects of side-chain volume and fluorination on solvation dynamics. Using ultrafast fluorescence spectroscopy, we find that fluorinated side chains exert electrostatic drag on neighboring water molecules, slowing water motion at the protein surface

Does using a femoral nerve block for total knee replacement decrease postoperative delirium?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The effect of peripheral nerve blocks on postoperative delirium in older patients has not been studied. Peripheral nerve blocks may reduce the incidence of postoperative opioid use and its side effects such as delirium via opioid-sparing effect.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A prospective cohort study was conducted in patients who underwent total knee replacement. Baseline cognitive function was assessed using the Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status. Postoperative delirium was measured using the Confusion Assessment Method postoperatively. Incidence of postoperative delirium was compared in two postoperative management groups: femoral nerve block ± patient-controlled analgesia and patient-controlled analgesia only. In addition, pain levels (using numeric rating scales) and opioid use were compared in two groups.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>85 patients were studied. The overall incidence of postoperative delirium either on postoperative day one or day two was 48.1%. Incidence of postoperative delirium in the femoral nerve block group was lower than patient controlled analgesia only group (25% vs. 61%, <it>P </it>= 0.002). However, there was no significant difference between the groups with respect to postoperative pain level or the amount of intravenous opioid use.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Femoral nerve block reduces the incidence of postoperative delirium. These results suggest that a larger randomized control trial is necessary to confirm these preliminary findings.</p

Developing and implementing an integrated delirium prevention system of care:a theory driven, participatory research study

Background: Delirium is a common complication for older people in hospital. Evidence suggests that delirium incidence in hospital may be reduced by about a third through a multi-component intervention targeted at known modifiable risk factors. We describe the research design and conceptual framework underpinning it that informed the development of a novel delirium prevention system of care for acute hospital wards. Particular focus of the study was on developing an implementation process aimed at embedding practice change within routine care delivery. Methods: We adopted a participatory action research approach involving staff, volunteers, and patient and carer representatives in three northern NHS Trusts in England. We employed Normalization Process Theory to explore knowledge and ward practices on delirium and delirium prevention. We established a Development Team in each Trust comprising senior and frontline staff from selected wards, and others with a potential role or interest in delirium prevention. Data collection included facilitated workshops, relevant documents/records, qualitative one-to-one interviews and focus groups with multiple stakeholders and observation of ward practices. We used grounded theory strategies in analysing and synthesising data. Results: Awareness of delirium was variable among staff with no attention on delirium prevention at any level; delirium prevention was typically neither understood nor perceived as meaningful. The busy, chaotic and challenging ward life rhythm focused primarily on diagnostics, clinical observations and treatment. Ward practices pertinent to delirium prevention were undertaken inconsistently. Staff welcomed the possibility of volunteers being engaged in delirium prevention work, but existing systems for volunteer support were viewed as a barrier. Our evolving conception of an integrated model of delirium prevention presented major implementation challenges flowing from minimal understanding of delirium prevention and securing engagement of volunteers alongside practice change. The resulting Prevention of Delirium (POD) Programme combines a multi-component delirium prevention and implementation process, incorporating systems and mechanisms to introduce and embed delirium prevention into routine ward practices. Conclusions: Although our substantive interest was in delirium prevention, the conceptual and methodological strategies pursued have implications for implementing and sustaining practice and service improvements more broadly

Antiretroviral (ARV) Therapy in Resource Poor Countries: What do we Need in Real Life?

Significant progresses have been made in the last 5 years towards the ultimate goal to provide universal access to care for all HIV/AIDS patients needing antiretroviral treatment in resource-poor countries. However, many barriers are still to be overcome, including (●) cost of care for the individual, (●) stigma, (●) lack of qualified human resources and infrastructure, especially in the rural setting, (●) rescue drugs for failing patients and (●) pediatric formulations. Priority actions to be promoted if the fight against HIV/AIDS is to be successful include: (i) promoting access to care in the rural areas, (ii) strengthening of basic health infrastructures, (iii) waiving of users’ fee to get ARV, (iv) a larger variety of drugs, with particular regard to fixed dose combination third line drugs and pediatric formulations, (v) local quality training and (vi) high quality basic and translational research. While the universal access to HIV care is crucial in developing countries, a strong emphasis on prevention should be maintained along

Age-related delay in information accrual for faces: Evidence from a parametric, single-trial EEG approach

Background: In this study, we quantified age-related changes in the time-course of face processing by means of an innovative single-trial ERP approach. Unlike analyses used in previous studies, our approach does not rely on peak measurements and can provide a more sensitive measure of processing delays. Young and old adults (mean ages 22 and 70 years) performed a non-speeded discrimination task between two faces. The phase spectrum of these faces was manipulated parametrically to create pictures that ranged between pure noise (0% phase information) and the undistorted signal (100% phase information), with five intermediate steps. Results: Behavioural 75% correct thresholds were on average lower, and maximum accuracy was higher, in younger than older observers. ERPs from each subject were entered into a single-trial general linear regression model to identify variations in neural activity statistically associated with changes in image structure. The earliest age-related ERP differences occurred in the time window of the N170. Older observers had a significantly stronger N170 in response to noise, but this age difference decreased with increasing phase information. Overall, manipulating image phase information had a greater effect on ERPs from younger observers, which was quantified using a hierarchical modelling approach. Importantly, visual activity was modulated by the same stimulus parameters in younger and older subjects. The fit of the model, indexed by R2, was computed at multiple post-stimulus time points. The time-course of the R2 function showed a significantly slower processing in older observers starting around 120 ms after stimulus onset. This age-related delay increased over time to reach a maximum around 190 ms, at which latency younger observers had around 50 ms time lead over older observers. Conclusion: Using a component-free ERP analysis that provides a precise timing of the visual system sensitivity to image structure, the current study demonstrates that older observers accumulate face information more slowly than younger subjects. Additionally, the N170 appears to be less face-sensitive in older observers

Phenotypic Variation and Bistable Switching in Bacteria

Microbial research generally focuses on clonal populations. However, bacterial cells with identical genotypes frequently display different phenotypes under identical conditions. This microbial cell individuality is receiving increasing attention in the literature because of its impact on cellular differentiation, survival under selective conditions, and the interaction of pathogens with their hosts. It is becoming clear that stochasticity in gene expression in conjunction with the architecture of the gene network that underlies the cellular processes can generate phenotypic variation. An important regulatory mechanism is the so-called positive feedback, in which a system reinforces its own response, for instance by stimulating the production of an activator. Bistability is an interesting and relevant phenomenon, in which two distinct subpopulations of cells showing discrete levels of gene expression coexist in a single culture. In this chapter, we address techniques and approaches used to establish phenotypic variation, and relate three well-characterized examples of bistability to the molecular mechanisms that govern these processes, with a focus on positive feedback.

Relation of Serum Estrogen Metabolites with Terminal Duct Lobular Unit Involution Among Women Undergoing Diagnostic Image-Guided Breast Biopsy

Higher levels of circulating estrogens and estrogen metabolites (EMs) have been associated with higher breast cancer risk. In breast tissues, reduced levels of terminal duct lobular unit (TDLU) involution, as reflected by higher numbers of TDLUs and acini per TDLU, have also been linked to elevated breast cancer risk. However, it is unknown whether reduced TDLU involution mediates the risk associated with circulating EMs. In a cross-sectional analysis of 94 premenopausal and 92 postmenopausal women referred for clinical breast biopsy at an academic facility in Vermont, we examined the associations of 15 EMs, quantified using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry, with the number of TDLUs and acini count/TDLU using zero-inflated Poisson regression with a robust variance estimator and ordinal logistic regression models, respectively. All analyses were stratified by menopausal status and adjusted for potential confounders. Among premenopausal women, comparing the highest vs. the lowest tertiles, levels of unconjugated estradiol (risk ratio (RR) = 1.74, 95 % confidence interval (CI) = 1.06-2.87, p trend = 0.03), 2-hydroxyestrone (RR = 1.74, 95 % CI = 1.01-3.01, p trend = 0.04), and 4-hydroxyestrone (RR = 1.74, 95 % CI = 0.99-3.06, p trend = 0.04) were associated with significantly higher TDLU count. Among postmenopausal women, higher levels of estradiol (RR = 2.09, 95 % CI = 1.01-4.30, p trend = 0.04) and 16α-hydroxyestrone (RR = 2.27, 95 % CI = 1.29-3.99, p trend = 0.02) were significantly associated with higher TDLU count. Among postmenopausal women, higher levels of EMs, specifically conjugated estrone and 2- and 4-pathway catechols, were also associated with higher acini count/TDLU. Our data suggest that higher levels of serum EMs are generally associated with lower levels of TDLU involution

An ecological time-series study of heat-related mortality in three European cities

BACKGROUND: Europe has experienced warmer summers in the past two decades and there is a need to describe the determinants of heat-related mortality to better inform public health activities during hot weather. We investigated the effect of high temperatures on daily mortality in three cities in Europe (Budapest, London, and Milan), using a standard approach. METHODS: An ecological time-series study of daily mortality was conducted in three cities using Poisson generalized linear models allowing for over-dispersion. Secular trends in mortality and seasonal confounding factors were controlled for using cubic smoothing splines of time. Heat exposure was modelled using average values of the temperature measure on the same day as death (lag 0) and the day before (lag 1). The heat effect was quantified assuming a linear increase in risk above a cut-point for each city. Socio-economic status indicators and census data were linked with mortality data for stratified analyses. RESULTS: The risk of heat-related death increased with age, and females had a greater risk than males in age groups > or =65 years in London and Milan. The relative risks of mortality (per degrees C) above the heat cut-point by gender and age were: (i) Male 1.10 (95%CI: 1.07-1.12) and Female 1.07 (1.05-1.10) for 75-84 years, (ii) M 1.10 (1.06-1.14) and F 1.08 (1.06-1.11) for > or = or =85 years in Budapest (> or =24 degrees C); (i) M 1.03 (1.01-1.04) and F 1.07 (1.05-1.09), (ii) M 1.05 (1.03-1.07) and F 1.08 (1.07-1.10) in London (> or =20 degrees C); and (i) M 1.08 (1.03-1.14) and F 1.20 (1.15-1.26), (ii) M 1.18 (1.11-1.26) and F 1.19 (1.15-1.24) in Milan (> or =26 degrees C). Mortality from external causes increases at higher temperatures as well as that from respiratory and cardiovascular disease. There was no clear evidence of effect modification by socio-economic status in either Budapest or London, but there was a seemingly higher risk for affluent non-elderly adults in Milan. CONCLUSION: We found broadly consistent determinants (age, gender, and cause of death) of heat related mortality in three European cities using a standard approach. Our results are consistent with previous evidence for individual determinants, and also confirm the lack of a strong socio-economic gradient in heat health effects currently in Europe

Assessing road effects on bats: the role of landscape, road features, and bat activity on road-kills

Recent studies suggest that roads can significantly impact bat populations. Though bats are one of the most threatened groups of European vertebrates, studies aiming to quantify bat mortality and determine the main factors driving it remain scarce. Between March 16 and October 31 of 2009, we surveyed road-killed bats daily along a 51-km-long transect that incorporates different types of roads in southern Portugal. We found 154 road-killed bats of 11 species. The two most common species in the study area, Pipistrellus kuhlii and P. pygmaeus, were also the most commonly identified road-kill, representing 72 % of the total specimens collected. About two-thirds of the total mortality occurred between mid July and late September, peaking in the second half of August. We also recorded casualties of threatened and rare species, including Miniopterus schreibersii, Rhinolophus ferrumequinum, R. hipposideros, Barbastella barbastellus, and Nyctalus leisleri. These species were found mostly in early autumn, corresponding to the mating and swarming periods. Landscape features were the most important variable subset for explaining bat casualties. Road stretches crossing or in the vicinity of high-quality habitats for bats—including dense Mediterranean woodland (‘‘montado’’) areas, water courses with riparian gallery, and water reservoirs—yielded a significantly higher number of casualties. Additionally, more roadkilled bats were recorded on high-traffic road stretches with viaducts, in areas of higher bat activity and near known roosts