Model for estimating the population prevalence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: cross sectional data from the Health Survey for England

BACKGROUND: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a major but neglected public health problem. Currently 1.4% of the England population has a clinical diagnosis of COPD, but the true burden of the disease has not been known with certainty, as many cases remain undiagnosed. METHODS: A mathematical model based on cross sectional data from a representative sample of the population in England (the Heath Survey for England 2001, n = 10,750) was developed allowing estimates on the prevalence of COPD (defined based on the presence of airflow obstruction) to be obtained. Logistic regression analysis was used to investigate and choose risk factors for inclusion in the model and to derive the prevalence estimates based on the strength of association between selected risk factors and the outcome COPD. The model allows the prevalence to be estimated in populations at national level and also at regional and large local areas, based on their compositions according to age, sex, smoking and ethnicity, and on area degrees of urbanisation and deprivation. We applied the model to measure the prevalence of COPD in England and in some sub-groups of the population within the country. RESULTS: The prevalence of COPD in England is estimated as 3.1% (3.9% in men and 2.4% in women) in the population over 15 years of age, and 5.3% (6.8% in men and 3.9% in women) in 45 year-olds and over. There was a 7-fold variation in the prevalence across subgroups of the population, with lowest values in Asian women from wealthy rural areas (1.7%), and highest in black men from deprived urban areas (12.5%). CONCLUSION: The model can be used to estimate population prevalence of COPD from large general practices to national level, and as a tool to identify areas of high levels of unmet needs for COPD priority health actions. The results from the model highlight the importance of including variables other than age, sex and smoking, i.e. levels of deprivation, urbanisation and ethnicity, when estimating population prevalence of COPD. The model should be validated at local level and incorporated into case-finding strategies

Facts, values, and Attention-Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD): an update on the controversies

The Hastings Center, a bioethics research institute, is holding a series of 5 workshops to examine the controversies surrounding the use of medication to treat emotional and behavioral disturbances in children. These workshops bring together clinicians, researchers, scholars, and advocates with diverse perspectives and from diverse fields. Our first commentary in CAPMH, which grew out of our first workshop, explained our method and explored the controversies in general. This commentary, which grows out of our second workshop, explains why informed people can disagree about ADHD diagnosis and treatment. Based on what workshop participants said and our understanding of the literature, we make 8 points. (1) The ADHD label is based on the interpretation of a heterogeneous set of symptoms that cause impairment. (2) Because symptoms and impairments are dimensional, there is an inevitable "zone of ambiguity," which reasonable people will interpret differently. (3) Many other variables, from different systems and tools of diagnosis to different parenting styles and expectations, also help explain why behaviors associated with ADHD can be interpreted differently. (4) Because people hold competing views about the proper goals of psychiatry and parenting, some people will be more, and others less, concerned about treating children in the zone of ambiguity. (5) To recognize that nature has written no bright line between impaired and unimpaired children, and that it is the responsibility of humans to choose who should receive a diagnosis, does not diminish the significance of ADHD. (6) Once ADHD is diagnosed, the facts surrounding the most effective treatment are complicated and incomplete; contrary to some popular wisdom, behavioral treatments, alone or in combination with low doses of medication, can be effective in the long-term reduction of core ADHD symptoms and at improving many aspects of overall functioning. (7) Especially when a child occupies the zone of ambiguity, different people will emphasize different values embedded in the pharmacological and behavioral approaches. (8) Truly informed decision-making requires that parents (and to the extent they are able, children) have some sense of the complicated and incomplete facts regarding the diagnosis and treatment of ADHD

Packages of Care for Attention-Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

In the sixth in a series of six articles on packages of care for mental disorders in low- and middle-income countries, Alan Flisher and colleagues discuss the treatment of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder

The Pediatric Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder Treatment Study II: rationale, design and methods

This paper presents the rationale, design, and methods of the Pediatric Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder Treatment Study II (POTS II), which investigates two different cognitive-behavior therapy (CBT) augmentation approaches in children and adolescents who have experienced a partial response to pharmacotherapy with a serotonin reuptake inhibitor for OCD. The two CBT approaches test a "single doctor" versus "dual doctor" model of service delivery. A specific goal was to develop and test an easily disseminated protocol whereby child psychiatrists would provide instructions in core CBT procedures recommended for pediatric OCD (e.g., hierarchy development, in vivo exposure homework) during routine medical management of OCD (I-CBT). The conventional "dual doctor" CBT protocol consists of 14 visits over 12 weeks involving: (1) psychoeducation, (2), cognitive training, (3) mapping OCD, and (4) exposure with response prevention (EX/RP). I-CBT is a 7-session version of CBT that does not include imaginal exposure or therapist-assisted EX/RP. In this study, we compared 12 weeks of medication management (MM) provided by a study psychiatrist (MM only) with two types of CBT augmentation: (1) the dual doctor model (MM+CBT); and (2) the single doctor model (MM+I-CBT). The design balanced elements of an efficacy study (e.g., random assignment, independent ratings) with effectiveness research aims (e.g., differences in specific SRI medications, dosages, treatment providers). The study is wrapping up recruitment of 140 youth ages 7–17 with a primary diagnosis of OCD. Independent evaluators (IEs) rated participants at weeks 0,4,8, and 12 during acute treatment and at 3,6, and 12 month follow-up visits

Monthly variation in the probability of presence of adult Culicoides populations in nine European countries and the implications for targeted surveillance

Background: Biting midges of the genus Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) are small hematophagous insects responsible for the transmission of bluetongue virus, Schmallenberg virus and African horse sickness virus to wild and domestic ruminants and equids. Outbreaks of these viruses have caused economic damage within the European Union. The spatio-temporal distribution of biting midges is a key factor in identifying areas with the potential for disease spread. The aim of this study was to identify and map areas of neglectable adult activity for each month in an average year. Average monthly risk maps can be used as a tool when allocating resources for surveillance and control programs within Europe. Methods : We modelled the occurrence of C. imicola and the Obsoletus and Pulicaris ensembles using existing entomological surveillance data from Spain, France, Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Denmark, Sweden, Norway and Poland. The monthly probability of each vector species and ensembles being present in Europe based on climatic and environmental input variables was estimated with the machine learning technique Random Forest. Subsequently, the monthly probability was classified into three classes: Absence, Presence and Uncertain status. These three classes are useful for mapping areas of no risk, areas of high-risk targeted for animal movement restrictions, and areas with an uncertain status that need active entomological surveillance to determine whether or not vectors are present. Results: The distribution of Culicoides species ensembles were in agreement with their previously reported distribution in Europe. The Random Forest models were very accurate in predicting the probability of presence for C. imicola (mean AUC = 0.95), less accurate for the Obsoletus ensemble (mean AUC = 0.84), while the lowest accuracy was found for the Pulicaris ensemble (mean AUC = 0.71). The most important environmental variables in the models were related to temperature and precipitation for all three groups. Conclusions: The duration periods with low or null adult activity can be derived from the associated monthly distribution maps, and it was also possible to identify and map areas with uncertain predictions. In the absence of ongoing vector surveillance, these maps can be used by veterinary authorities to classify areas as likely vector-free or as likely risk areas from southern Spain to northern Sweden with acceptable precision. The maps can also focus costly entomological surveillance to seasons and areas where the predictions and vector-free status remain uncertain

Applying the ALARA concept to the evaluation of vesicoureteric reflux

The voiding cystourethrogram (VCUG) is a widely used study to define lower urinary tract anatomy and to diagnose vesicoureteric reflux (VUR) in children. We examine the technical advances in the VCUG and other examinations for reflux that have reduced radiation exposure of children, and we give recommendations for the use of imaging studies in four groups of children: (1) children with urinary tract infection, (2) siblings of patients with VUR, (3) infants with antenatal hydronephrosis (ANH), and (4) children with a solitary functioning kidney. By performing examinations with little to no radiation, carefully selecting only the children who need imaging studies and judiciously timing follow-up examinations, we can reduce the radiation exposure of children being studied for reflux

Measuring local depletion of terrestrial game vertebrates by central-place hunters in rural Amazonia

The degree to which terrestrial vertebrate populations are depleted in tropical forests occupied by human communities has been the subject of an intense polarising debate that has important conservation implications. Conservation ecologists and practitioners are divided over the extent to which community-based subsistence offtake is compatible with ecologically functional populations of tropical forest game species. To quantify depletion envelopes of forest vertebrates around human communities, we deployed a total of 383 camera trap stations and 78 quantitative interviews to survey the peri-community areas controlled by 60 semi-subsistence communities over a combined area of over 3.2 million hectares in the Médio Juruá and Uatumã regions of Central-Western Brazilian Amazonia. Our results largely conform with prior evidence that hunting large-bodied vertebrates reduces wildlife populations near settlements, such that they are only found at a distance to settlements where they are hunted less frequently. Camera trap data suggest that a select few harvest-sensitive species, including lowland tapir, are either repelled or depleted by human communities. Nocturnal and cathemeral species were detected relatively more frequently in disturbed areas close to communities, but individual species did not necessarily shift their activity patterns. Group biomass of all species was depressed in the wider neighbourhood of urban areas rather than communities. Interview data suggest that species traits, especially group size and body mass, mediate these relationships. Large-bodied, large-group-living species are detected farther from communities as reported by experienced informants. Long-established communities in our study regions have not “emptied” the surrounding forest. Low human population density and low hunting offtake due to abundant sources of alternative aquatic protein, suggest that these communities represent a best-case scenario for sustainable hunting of wildlife for food, thereby providing a conservative assessment of game depletion. Given this ‘best-case’ camera trap and interview-based evidence for hunting depletion, regions with higher human population densities, external trade in wildlife and limited access to alternative protein will likely exhibit more severe depletion