Integration of production and financial models to analyse the financial impact of livestock diseases: a case study of Schmallenberg virus disease on British and French dairy farms

AIMS AND OBJECTIVES: The aim of the study was to investigate and compare the financial impact of Schmallenberg disease for different dairy production types in the United Kingdom and France. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Integrated production and financial models for dairy cattle were developed and applied to Schmallenberg virus (SBV) disease in a British and French context. The five main production systems that prevail in these two countries were considered. Their respective gross margins measuring the holding's profitability were calculated based on public benchmarking, literature and expert opinion data. A partial budget analysis was performed within each production model to estimate the impact of SBV in the systems modelled. Two disease scenarios were simulated: low impact and high impact. RESULTS: The model gross margin obtained per cow space and year ranged from £1014 to £1484 for the UK and from £1037 to £1890 for France depending on the production system considered. In the UK, the net SBV disease costs in £/cow space/year for an average dairy farm with 100 milking spaces were estimated between £16.3 and £51.4 in the high-impact scenario and between £8.2 and £25.9 in the low-impact scenario. For France, the net SBV disease costs in £/cow space/year ranged from £19.6 to £48.6 in the high-impact scenario and £9.7 to £22.8 in the low-impact scenario, respectively. CONCLUSION: The study illustrates how the combination of production and financial models allows assessing disease impact taking into account differing management and husbandry practices and associated price structures in the dairy sector. It supports decision-making of farmers and veterinarians who are considering disease control measures as it provides an approach to estimate baseline disease impact in common dairy production systems in the UK and France

Anti-microbial Use in Animals: How to Assess the Trade-offs

Antimicrobials are widely used in preventive and curative medicine in animals. Benefits from curative use are clear – it allows sick animals to be healthy with a gain in human welfare. The case for preventive use of antimicrobials is less clear cut with debates on the value of antimicrobials as growth promoters in the intensive livestock industries. The possible benefits from the use of antimicrobials need to be balanced against their cost and the increased risk of emergence of resistance due to their use in animals. The study examines the importance of animals in society and how the role and management of animals is changing including the use of antimicrobials. It proposes an economic framework to assess the trade-offs of anti-microbial use and examines the current level of data collection and analysis of these trade-offs. An exploratory review identifies a number of weaknesses. Rarely are we consistent in the frameworks applied to the economic assessment anti-microbial use in animals, which may well be due to gaps in data or the prejudices of the analysts. There is a need for more careful data collection that would allow information on (i) which species and production systems antimicrobials are used in, (ii) what active substance of antimicrobials and the application method and (iii) what dosage rates. The species need to include companion animals as well as the farmed animals as it is still not known how important direct versus indirect spread of resistance to humans is. In addition, research is needed on pricing antimicrobials used in animals to ensure that prices reflect production and marketing costs, the fixed costs of anti-microbial development and the externalities of resistance emergence. Overall, much work is needed to provide greater guidance to policy, and such work should be informed by rigorous data collection and analysis systems

Evidence for deceleration in the radio jets of GRS1915+105?

There is currently a clear discrepancy in the proper motions measured on different angular scales in the approaching radio jets of the black hole X-ray binary GRS1915+105. Lower velocities were measured with the Very Large Array (VLA) prior to 1996 than were subsequently found from higher-resolution observations made with the Very Long Baseline Array and the Multi-Element Radio Linked Interferometer Network. We initiated an observing campaign to use all three arrays to attempt to track the motion of the jet knots from the 2006 February outburst of the source, giving us unprecedented simultaneous coverage of all angular scales, from milliarcsecond scales out to arcsecond scales. The derived proper motion, which was dominated by the VLA measurements, was found to be 17.0 mas per day, demonstrating that there has been no significant permanent change in the properties of the jets since 1994. We find no conclusive evidence for deceleration of the jet knots, unless this occurs within 70 mas of the core. We discuss possible causes for the varying proper motions recorded in the literature.Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRAS. 13 pages, 10 figure

The transmission of nosocomial pathogens in an intensive care unit: a space–time clustering and structural equation modelling approach

We investigated the incidence of cases of nosocomial pathogens and risk factors in an intensive treatment unit ward to determine if the number of cases is dependent on location of patients and the colonization/infection history of the ward. A clustering approach method was developed to investigate the patterns of spread of cases through time for five microorganisms [methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), Acinetobacter spp., Klebsiella spp., Candida spp., and Pseudomonas aeruginosa] using hospital microbiological monitoring data and ward records of patient-bed use. Cases of colonization/infection by MRSA, Candida and Pseudomonas were clustered in beds and through time while cases of Klebsiella and Acinetobacter were not. We used structural equation modelling to analyse interacting risk factors and the potential pathways of transmission in the ward. Prior nurse contact with colonized/infected patients, mediated by the number of patient-bed movements, were important predictors for all cases, except for those of Pseudomonas. General health and invasive surgery were significant predictors of cases of Candida and Klebsiella. We suggest that isolation and bed movement as a strategy to manage MRSA infections is likely to impact upon the incidence of cases of other opportunist pathogen

From solid solution to cluster formation of Fe and Cr in α\alpha-Zr

To understand the mechanisms by which Fe and Cr additions increase the corrosion rate of irradiated Zr alloys, a combination of experimental (atom probe tomography, x-ray diffraction and thermoelectric power measurements) and modelling (density functional theory) techniques are employed to investigate the non-equilibrium solubility and clustering of Fe and Cr in binary Zr alloys. Cr occupies both interstitial and substitutional sites in the {\alpha}-Zr lattice, Fe favours interstitial sites, and a low-symmetry site that was not previously modelled is found to be the most favourable for Fe. Lattice expansion as a function of alloying concentration (in the dilute regime) is strongly anisotropic for Fe additions, expanding the $c$-axis while contracting the $a$-axis. Defect clusters are observed at higher solution concentrations, which induce a smaller amount of lattice strain compared to the dilute defects. In the presence of a Zr vacancy, all two-atom clusters are more soluble than individual point defects and as many as four Fe or three Cr atoms could be accommodated in a single Zr vacancy. The Zr vacancy is critical for the increased solubility of defect clusters, the implications for irradiation induced microstructure changes in Zr alloys are discussed.Comment: 15 pages including figure, 9 figures, 2 tables. Submitted for publication in Acta Mater, Journal of Nuclear Materials (2015

Clinical course of pain and disability following primary lumbar discectomy: systematic review and meta-analysis

© 2020, The Author(s). Purpose: To conduct a meta-analysis to describe clinical course of pain and disability in adult patients post-lumbar discectomy (PROSPERO: CRD42015020806). Methods: Sensitive topic-based search strategy designed for individual databases was conducted. Patients (> 16 years) following first-time lumbar discectomy for sciatica/radiculopathy with no complications, investigated in inception (point of surgery) prospective cohort studies, were included. Studies including revision surgery or not published in English were excluded. Two reviewers independently searched information sources, assessed eligibility at title/abstract and full-text stages, extracted data, assessed risk of bias (modified QUIPs) and assessed GRADE. Authors were contacted to request raw data where data/variance data were missing. Meta-analyses evaluated outcomes at all available time points using the variance-weighted mean in random-effect meta-analyses. Means and 95% CIs were plotted over time for measurements reported on outcomes of leg pain, back pain and disability. Results: A total of 87 studies (n = 31,034) at risk of bias (49 moderate, 38 high) were included. Clinically relevant improvements immediately following surgery (> MCID) for leg pain (0–10, mean before surgery 7.04, 50 studies, n = 14,910 participants) and disability were identified (0–100, mean before surgery 53.33, 48 studies, n = 15,037). Back pain also improved (0–10, mean before surgery 4.72, 53 studies, n = 14,877). Improvement in all outcomes was maintained (to 7 years). Meta-regression analyses to assess the relationship between outcome data and a priori potential covariates found preoperative back pain and disability predictive for outcome. Conclusion: Moderate-level evidence supports clinically relevant immediate improvement in leg pain and disability following lumbar discectomy with accompanying improvements in back pain. Graphic abstract: These slides can be retrieved under Electronic Supplementary Material. [Figure not available: see fulltext.]

Incoherent transient radio emission from stellar-mass compact objects in the SKA era

The universal link between the processes of accretion and ejection leads to the formation of jets and outflows around accreting compact objects. Incoherent synchrotron emission from these outflows can be observed from a wide range of accreting binaries, including black holes, neutron stars, and white dwarfs. Monitoring the evolution of the radio emission during their sporadic outbursts provides important insights into the launching of jets, and, when coupled with the behaviour of the source at shorter wavelengths, probes the underlying connection with the accretion process. Radio observations can also probe the impact of jets/outflows (including other explosive events such as magnetar giant flares) on the ambient medium, quantifying their kinetic feedback. The high sensitivity of the SKA will open up new parameter space, enabling the monitoring of accreting stellar-mass compact objects from their bright, Eddington-limited outburst states down to the lowest-luminosity quiescent levels, whose intrinsic faintness has to date precluded detailed studies. A census of quiescently accreting black holes will also constrain binary evolution processes. By enabling us to extend our existing investigations of black hole jets to the fainter jets from neutron star and white dwarf systems, the SKA will permit comparative studies to determine the role of the compact object in jet formation. The high sensitivity, wide field of view and multi-beaming capability of the SKA will enable the detection and monitoring of all bright flaring transients in the observable local Universe, including the ULXs, ... [Abridged] This chapter reviews the science goals outlined above, demonstrating the progress that will be made by the SKA. We also discuss the potential of the astrometric and imaging observations that would be possible should a significant VLBI component be included in the SKA.Comment: To be published in: "Advancing Astrophysics with the Square Kilometre Array", Proceedings of Science, PoS(AASKA14

First e-VLBI observations of GRS 1915+105

We present results from the first successful open call e-VLBI science run, observing the X-ray binary GRS 1915+105. e-VLBI science allows the rapid production of VLBI radio maps, within hours of an observation rather than weeks, facilitating a decision for follow-up observations. A total of 6 telescopes observing at 5 GHz across the European VLBI Network (EVN) were correlated in real time at the Joint Institute for VLBI in Europe (JIVE). Constant data rates of 128 Mbps were transferred from each telescope, giving 4 TB of raw sampled data over the 12 hours of the whole experiment. Throughout this, GRS 1915+105 was observed for a total of 5.5 hours, producing 2.8 GB of visibilities of correlated data. A weak flare occurred during our observations, and we detected a slightly resolved component of 2.7 x 1.2 milliarcsecond with a position angle of 140 (+/-2) degrees. The peak brightness was 10.2 mJy per beam, with a total integrated radio flux of 11.1 mJy.Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRAS 4 pages, 3 figure

Economics of One Health: Costs and benefits of integrated West Nile virus surveillance in Emilia-Romagna

Since 2013 in Emilia-Romagna, Italy, surveillance information generated in the public health and in the animal health sectors has been shared and used to guide public health interventions to mitigate the risk of West Nile virus (WNV) transmission via blood transfusion. The objective of the current study was to identify and estimate the costs and benefits associated with this One Health surveillance approach, and to compare it to an approach that does not integrate animal health information in blood donations safety policy (uni-sectoral scenario). Costs of human, animal, and entomological surveillance, sharing of information, and triggered interventions were estimated. Benefits were quantified as the averted costs of potential human cases of WNV neuroinvasive disease associated to infected blood transfusion. In the 2009–2015 period, the One Health approach was estimated to represent a cost saving of €160,921 compared to the uni-sectoral scenario. Blood donation screening was the main cost for both scenarios. The One Health approach further allowed savings of €1.21 million in terms of avoided tests on blood units. Benefits of the One Health approach due to short-term costs of hospitalization and compensation for transfusion-associated disease potentially avoided, were estimated to range from €0 to €2.98 million according to the probability of developing WNV neuroinvasive disease after receiving an infected blood transfusion