Managing risk and uncertainty in systematic conservation planning with insufficient information

This research was supported by Japan Society for the Promotion of Science and by the Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology Graduate University. RKR was supported by an Australian Research Council Discovery Early Career Research Award (DE210100492). JRR was supported by an Australian Research Council Future Fellowship (FT200100096) .1. Recent advances in systematic conservation planning make use of modern portfolio theory - a framework to construct and select optimal allocation of assets - to address the challenges posed by climate change uncertainty. However, these methods are difficult to implement for fine scale conservation planning when the information on future climate scenarios is insufficient. Insufficient information makes the estimators of the key inputs in the optimisation procedure unreliable leading to technical problems for the construction of optimal asset allocation. 2. We identify three statistical methods - Constant Correlation Model, the Ledoit-Wolf approach and the weighted non-negative least-squares approach - that can overcome the lack of sufficient information and enable the use of modern portfolio theory for fine scale conservation planning. 3. We illustrate the use of the three methods for identifying efficient portfolio allocation strategies, i.e. strategies that give minimum amount of risk for a chosen level of return or maximum return for a chosen level of risk, using case studies of wetland conservation planning in North America and coastal conservation planning in Australia. We compare conservation planning strategies with complete information using standard portfolio theory and with insufficient information using the three methods to highlight their advantages and disadvantages. We find the Ledoit-Wolf and weighted non-negative least-squares approaches perform well and can identify risk-return out-comes that are close to those identified with complete information. 4. The methods presented in this study broaden the range of cases where the application of modern portfolio theory is possible in conservation planning to enhance its uptake and lead to more efficient allocation of conservation resources.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Degradation and forgone removals increase the carbon impact of intact forest loss by 626%

Intact tropical forests, free from substantial anthropogenic influence, store and sequester large amounts of atmospheric carbon but are currently neglected in international climate policy. We show that between 2000 and 2013, direct clearance of intact tropical forest areas accounted for 3.2% of gross carbon emissions from all deforestation across the pantropics. However, full carbon accounting requires the consideration of forgone carbon sequestration, selective logging, edge effects, and defaunation. When these factors were considered, the net carbon impact resulting from intact tropical forest loss between 2000 and 2013 increased by a factor of 6 (626%), from 0.34 (0.37 to 0.21) to 2.12 (2.85 to 1.00) petagrams of carbon (equivalent to approximately 2 years of global land use change emissions). The climate mitigation value of conserving the 549 million ha of tropical forest that remains intact is therefore significant but will soon dwindle if their rate of loss continues to accelerate

Spatially explicit perceptions of ecosystem services and land cover change in forested regions of Borneo

Spatially explicit information on local perceptions of ecosystem services is needed to inform land use planning within rapidly changing landscapes. In this paper we spatially modelled local people's use and perceptions of benefits from forest ecosystem services in Borneo, from interviews of 1837 people in 185 villages. Questions related to provisioning, cultural/spiritual, regulating and supporting ecosystem services derived from forest, and attitudes towards forest conversion. We used boosted regression trees (BRTs) to combine interview data with social and environmental predictors to understand spatial variation of perceptions across Borneo. Our results show that people use a variety of products from intact and highly degraded forests. Perceptions of benefits from forests were strongest: in human-altered forest landscapes for cultural and spiritual benefits; in human-altered and intact forests landscapes for health benefits; intact forest for direct health benefits, such as medicinal plants; and in regions with little forest and extensive plantations, for environmental benefits, such as climatic impacts from deforestation. Forest clearing for small scale agriculture was predicted to be widely supported yet less so for large-scale agriculture. Understanding perceptions of rural communities in dynamic, multi-use landscapes is important where people are often directly affected by the decline in ecosystem services

Towards a threat assessment framework for ecosystem services

How can we tell if the ecosystem services upon which we rely are at risk of being lost, potentially permanently? Ecosystem services underpin human well-being, but we lack a consistent approach for categorizing the extent to which they are threatened. We present an assessment framework for assessing the degree to which the adequate and sustainable provision of a given ecosystem service is threatened. Our framework combines information on the states and trends of both ecosystem service supply and demand, with reference to two critical thresholds: demand exceeding supply and ecosystem service ‘extinction’. This framework can provide a basis for global, national, and regional assessments of threat to ecosystem services, and accompany existing assessments of threat to species and ecosystems

Oil palm–community conflict mapping in Indonesia: a case for better community liaison in planning for development initiatives

Conflict between large-scale oil-palm producers and local communities is widespread in palm-oil producer nations. With a potential doubling of oil-palm cultivation in Indonesia in the next ten years it is likely that conflicts between the palm-oil industry and communities will increase. We develop and apply a novel method for understanding spatial patterns of oil-palm related conflicts. We use a unique set of conflict data derived through systematic searches of online data sources and local newspaper reports describing recent oil-palm land-use related conflicts for Indonesian Borneo, and combine these data with 43 spatial environmental and social variables using boosted regression tree modelling. Reports identified 187 villages had reported conflict with oil-palm companies. Spatial patterns varied with different types of conflict. Forest-dependent communities were more likely to strongly oppose oil-palm establishment because of their negative perception of oil-palm development on the environment and their own livelihoods. Conflicts regarding land boundary disputes, illegal operations by companies, perceived lack of consultation, compensation and broken promises by companies were more associated with communities that have lower reliance on forests for livelihoods, or are located in regions that have undergone or are undergoing forest transformation to oil-palm or industrial-tree-plantations. A better understanding of the characteristics of communities and areas where different types of conflicts have occurred is a fundamental step in generating hypotheses about why certain types of conflict occur in certain locations. Insights from such research can help inform land use policy, planning and management to achieve more sustainable and equitable development. Our results can also assist certification bodies (e.g. the Roundtable for Sustainable Palm Oil-RSPO, and the Indonesian and Malaysian versions, ISPO and MSPO), non-government-organisations, government agencies and other stakeholders to more effectively target mediation efforts to reduce the potential for conflict arising in the future

Integrating plant- and animal-based perspectives for more effective restoration of biodiversity

Ecological restoration of modified and degraded landscapes is an important challenge for the 21st century, with potential for major gains in the recovery of biodiversity. However, there is a general lack of agreement between plant- and animal-based approaches to restoration, both in theory and practice. Here, we review these approaches, identify limitations from failing to effectively integrate their different perspectives, and suggest ways to improve outcomes for biodiversity recovery in agricultural landscapes. We highlight the need to strengthen collaboration between plant and animal ecologists, to overcome disciplinary and cultural differences, and to achieve a more unified approach to restoration ecology. Explicit consideration of key ecosystem functions, the need to plan at multiple spatial and temporal scales, and the importance of plant–animal interactions can provide a bridge between plant- and animal-based methods. A systematic approach to restoration planning is critical to achieving effective biodiversity outcomes while meeting long-term social and economic needs

Mapping the distribution of the Sunda pangolin (Manis javanica) within natural forest in Sabah, Malaysian Borneo

Pangolins are the most trafficked mammals in the world and are severely threatened by poaching the loss, degradation, and fragmentation of habitat. In Malaysian Borneo, conservation initiatives for the Sunda pangolin (Manis javanica) are hindered by a paucity of data on their distribution and population size. Using MaxEnt niche modelling and consolidated species location data, we projected the distribution of Sunda pangolins in Sabah. Additionally, we assessed the accessibility of their forest habitats to humans to understand potential threats. Our model indicated that, as of 2015, approximately half of Sabah’s land area (39,530 km²) is suitable for pangolins, with 43% in protected forests, 38% in production forests, and 19% outside of these areas. Alarmingly, our data suggest that nearly all (91%) of these suitable habitats are relatively easily accessible to poachers. Our findings provide a state-level baseline understanding of Sunda pangolin distribution and assess potential threats in Sabah. These can inform short- and long-term conservation management plans for pangolin to safeguard this critically endangered species