Prior Design for Dependent Dirichlet Processes: An Application to Marathon Modeling

This paper presents a novel application of Bayesian nonparametrics (BNP) for marathon data modeling. We make use of two well-known BNP priors, the single-p dependent Dirichlet process and the hierarchical Dirichlet process, in order to address two different problems. First, we study the impact of age, gender and environment on the runners’ performance. We derive a fair grading method that allows direct comparison of runners regardless of their age and gender. Unlike current grading systems, our approach is based not only on top world records, but on the performances of all runners. The presented methodology for comparison of densities can be adopted in many other applications straightforwardly, providing an interesting perspective to build dependent Dirichlet processes. Second, we analyze the running patterns of the marathoners in time, obtaining information that can be valuable for training purposes. We also show that these running patterns can be used to predict finishing time given intermediate interval measurements. We apply our models to New York City, Boston and London marathons

Compressibility and structural stability of ultra-incompressible bimetallic interstitial carbides and nitrides

We have investigated by means of high-pressure x-ray diffraction the structural stability of Pd2Mo3N, Ni2Mo3C0.52N0.48, Co3Mo3C0.62N0.38, and Fe3Mo3C. We have found that they remain stable in their ambient-pressure cubic phase at least up to 48 GPa. All of them have a bulk modulus larger than 330 GPa, being the least compressible material Fe3Mo3C, B0 = 374(3) GPa. In addition, apparently a reduction of compressibility is detected as the carbon content increased. The equation of state for each material is determined. A comparison with other refractory materials indicates that interstitial nitrides and carbides behave as ultra-incompressible materials.Comment: 14 pages, 3 figures, 1 tabl

Decontamination of Diesel particles from air by using the Counterfog (R) system

The existence of particles with diameter under 10m in air is strongly correlated with respiratory diseases. These particles are profusely produced by heating systems, traffic, and Diesel engines creating a serious problem to modern cities. Natural mechanisms removing particles from the atmosphere are too slow to deal with the huge amount of particles daily released by human activity. The objective of this work is to measure the effectiveness of a new technology called Counterfog (R) to eliminate airborne particles. The results show that Counterfog (R) is able to wash out PM10, PM5, and PM2.5 Diesel-generated airborne particles quite efficiently.This work has been funded by the FP7-SEC-2012-1 program of the EU Commission under grant number 312804

The State of the Circumstellar Medium Surrounding Gamma-Ray Burst Sources and its Effect on the Afterglow Appearance

We present a numerical investigation of the contribution of the presupernova ejecta of Wolf-Rayet stars to the environment surrounding gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), and describe how this external matter can affect the observable afterglow characteristics. An implicit hydrodynamic calculation for massive stellar evolution is used here to provide the inner boundary conditions for an explicit hydrodynamical code to model the circumstellar gas dynamics. The resulting properties of the circumstellar medium are then used to calculate the deceleration of a relativistic, gas-dynamic jet and the corresponding afterglow light curve produced as the shock wave propagates through the shocked-wind medium. We find that variations in the stellar wind drive instabilities that may produce radial filaments in the shocked-wind region. These comet-like tails of clumps could give rise to strong temporal variations in the early afterglow lightcurve. Afterglows may be expected to differ widely among themselves, depending on the angular anisotropy of the jet and the properties of the stellar progenitor; a wide diversity of behaviors may be the rule, rather than the exception.Comment: 17 pages, 7 figures, ApJ in pres

Optimal interpolation of satellite and ground data for irradiance nowcasting at city scales

We use a Bayesian method, optimal interpolation, to improve satellite derived irradiance estimates at city-scales using ground sensor data. Optimal interpolation requires error covariances in the satellite estimates and ground data, which define how information from the sensor locations is distributed across a large area. We describe three methods to choose such covariances, including a covariance parameterization that depends on the relative cloudiness between locations. Results are computed with ground data from 22 sensors over a 75×80 km area centered on Tucson, AZ, using two satellite derived irradiance models. The improvements in standard error metrics for both satellite models indicate that our approach is applicable to additional satellite derived irradiance models. We also show that optimal interpolation can nearly eliminate mean bias error and improve the root mean squared error by 50%

Ianus: an Adpative FPGA Computer

Dedicated machines designed for specific computational algorithms can outperform conventional computers by several orders of magnitude. In this note we describe {\it Ianus}, a new generation FPGA based machine and its basic features: hardware integration and wide reprogrammability. Our goal is to build a machine that can fully exploit the performance potential of new generation FPGA devices. We also plan a software platform which simplifies its programming, in order to extend its intended range of application to a wide class of interesting and computationally demanding problems. The decision to develop a dedicated processor is a complex one, involving careful assessment of its performance lead, during its expected lifetime, over traditional computers, taking into account their performance increase, as predicted by Moore's law. We discuss this point in detail

An in-depth view of the microscopic dynamics of Ising spin glasses at fixed temperature

Using the dedicated computer Janus, we follow the nonequilibrium dynamics of the Ising spin glass in three dimensions for eleven orders of magnitude. The use of integral estimators for the coherence and correlation lengths allows us to study dynamic heterogeneities and the presence of a replicon mode and to obtain safe bounds on the Edwards-Anderson order parameter below the critical temperature. We obtain good agreement with experimental determinations of the temperature-dependent decay exponents for the thermoremanent magnetization. This magnitude is observed to scale with the much harder to measure coherence length, a potentially useful result for experimentalists. The exponents for energy relaxation display a linear dependence on temperature and reasonable extrapolations to the critical point. We conclude examining the time growth of the coherence length, with a comparison of critical and activated dynamics.Comment: 38 pages, 26 figure