Modeling Human Migration Under Environmental Change: A Case Study of the Effect of Sea Level Rise in Bangladesh

Sea level rise (SLR) could have catastrophic consequences worldwide. More than 600 million people currently living in coastal areas may see their livelihood at risk and choose to migrate in the near future. Predicting when, how, and where people could migrate under environmental change is critical to devise effective policy initiatives and improve our preparedness. Here, we propose a modeling framework to predict the effect of SLR on migration patterns from easily accessible geographic and demographic data. The framework adapts the radiation model to capture unwillingness or inability to migrate of affected residents, as well as return migration and cascading effects in migration patterns. We apply the mathematical model to study internal migration in Bangladesh, where we predict a complex and counterintuitive landscape of migration patterns between districts. Our predictions indicate that the impact of SLR on 816,000 people by 2050 will trigger cascading effects in migration patterns throughout the entire country. The population of each of the 64 districts will change, leading to a total variation of 1.3 million people. Migration from inundated regions in the center will trigger non-trivial patterns, including a reduction in the population of the district of the capital Dhaka

Quantifying the role of the COVID-19 pandemic in the 2020 U.S. presidential elections

In the media, a prevalent narrative is that the incumbent United States President Donald J. Trump lost the 2020 elections because of the way he handled the COVID-19 pandemic. Quantitative evidence to support this narrative is, however, limited. We put forward a spatial, information-theoretic approach to critically examine the link between voting behavior and COVID-19 incidence in the 2020 presidential elections. The approach overcomes classical limitations of traditional regression analysis, where it does not require an underlying mathematical model and it can capture nonlinear interactions. From the analysis of county-level data, we uncovered a robust association between voting behavior and prevalence of COVID-19 cases. Surprisingly, such an association points in the opposite direction from the accepted narrative: in counties that experienced less COVID-19 cases, the incumbent President lost more ground to his opponent, now President Joseph R. Biden Jr. A tenable explanation of this observation is the different attitude of liberal and conservative voters toward the pandemic, which led to more COVID-19 spreading in counties with a larger share of republican voters

Age-length keys availability for Atlantic bluefin tuna captured in the eastern management area

This paper analyzes the available direct ageing information in the last decade from Atlantic bluefin tuna caught in the eastern management area. To investigate differences among ALKs, a standard Von Bertalanffy growth function (VB) was fit to length at age data for each stratum. A deficient convergence of VB fitting to the asymptotic length due to the scarcity of old specimens was found for all available ALKs. After these analyses some records were identified as outliers (reading methodological issues) and removed from the data base.En prensa0,000

Standardized age - Length key for east Atlantic and Mediterranean bluefin tuna based on otoliths readings.

This paper presents an age-length key (ALK) based on age estimates from otoliths following a recent standardized reading criterion. Sampling of Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) otoliths comes from the “Biological and genetic sampling and analysis" (GBYP) project and was complemented with some samples from the Spanish institute of Oceanography. Using 2010 to 2012 data improves length range and monthly sampling coverage. Variability in length at age from ALK seems acceptable and although it was developed from data pooled over three years, the bias is likely to be small. Final age was adjusted to account for the date of capture and the timing of bands formation throughout the year. Monthly formation of edge type, translucent or opaque, was inconclusive and did not allow establishing an annual formation pattern. The confidence interval of the von Bertalanffy growth model curve fitted to ALK data included currently adopted growth function for eastern bluefin stock and western stock function up to age 8. From age 9, this last western function predicts slightly older ages than the present ALK growth model.Postprint0,000

Promoting prosocial behaviour among Colombian adolescents: the evaluation of a universal school-based program using a multi-informant perspective

The present study evaluated the efficacy of an Italian school-based intervention programme adapted in three Colombian sites (Medellín, Manizales, and Santa Marta) in promoting prosocial behaviour among adolescents. Using a pre-test-post-test design with a multi-informant approach, the present study assessed 451 students (Mage = 12.77, SD = 1.06) of the intervention group and 428 students (Mage = 12.64, SD = 1.01) by using self-report and peer rating measures of prosocial behaviour. After establishing the measurement invariance across time and informants, a latent difference score model showed the positive effect of the intervention programme in improving prosocial behaviour evaluated by peers (Cohen’s d = .379) among Colombian adolescents, across all three sites. Implications of the study will be discussed

Updated comparison of age estimates from paired calcified structures from Atlantic bluefin tuna

In this paper we present an updated comparison of age estimates from otoliths and spines from the same specimen, with the intention to analyze whether it is possible to use both structures in obtaining age-length keys for this species. The agreement between otolith and spine age estimates was good for bluefin tuna younger than 14 years old with less than one year difference. Tests of symmetry showed the asymmetrical distribution of ages. However no significant differences were found between the growth parameters estimated from both paired hard parts. It is suggested using both structures readings for constructing agelength keys for bluefin tuna younger than 14 years.En prensa0,000

LARVAS DE PECES DE LA BAHÍA DE MOCHIMA, ESTADO SUCRE, VENEZUELA

Con el fin de aumentar el conocimiento de la fauna ictioplanctónica de la Bahía de Mochima se realizaron tres muestreos zooplanctónicos durante los meses de marzo a mayo de 1999, colectándose un total de 34 larvas que fueron distribuidas en las familias Carangidae, Sparidae, Achiridae, Syngnathidae, Gobiidae y Blenniidae.   PALABRAS CLAVES: Larvas, peces, ictioplancton, Venezuela   ABSTRACT To increase knowledge about the ichthyoplanktonic fauna in Mochima Bay, we collected three samples of plankton between March and May, 1999 : we collected a total of 34 fish larvae, distributed in the families Carangidae, Sparidae, Achiridae, Syngnathidae, Gobiidae and Blenniidae.   KEY WORDS: Larvae, Fish, Ichthioplankton, Venezuel

Micrometric control of the optics of the human eye: environment or genes?

Purpose: The human eye has typically more optical aberrations than conventional artificial optical systems. While the lower order modes (defocus and astigmatism) are well studied, our purpose is to explore the influence of genes versus the environment on the higher order aberrations of the optical components of the eye. Methods: We have performed a classical twin study in a sample from the Region of Murcia (Spain). Optical aberrations using a Hartmann-Shack sensor (AOnEye Voptica SL, Murcia, Spain) and corneal aberrations (using corneal topography data) were measured in 138 eyes corresponding to 69 twins; 36 monozygotic (MZ) and 33 dizygotic (DZ) pairs (age 55 years, SD 7 years). Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) were used to estimate how strongly aberrations of twins resemble each other, and genetic models were fitted to quantify heritability in the selected phenotypes. Results: Genes had a significant influence in the variance of most of the higher order aberration terms (heritability from 40% to 70%). This genetic influence was observed similarly in both cornea and complete eye aberrations. Additionally, the compensation factor of spherical aberration in the eye (i.e., how much corneal spherical aberration was compensated by internal spherical aberration) was found under genetic influence (heritability of 68%). Conclusions: There is a significant genetic contribution to the variance of aberrations of the eye, not only at macroscopic levels, as in myopia or astigmatism, but also at microscopic levels, where a few micrometers changes in surface topography can produce a large difference in the value of the optical aberrations

Unequal effects of the national lockdown on mental and social health in Italy

With the exception of a few countries that chose a different approach, the worldwide reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic was a (longer or shorter) period of national lockdown. While the economic consequences of shutting down national economies were immediately evident, the sociopsychiatric implications of the social confinement of the entire population remain hidden and not fully understood. Italy has been the first European country to be severely impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, to which it responded through strict lockdown measurements. The results of a timely survey on mental and social health, carried out by students and teachers of a middle school in Rome, might help identify the most vulnerable groups of the population. This evidence could be crucial in conceiving and enacting targeted public health policies to mitigate the consequences of the pandemic on mental health and to prevent intolerance to containment measures in some population segments, which could hamper worldwide efforts in the fight against COVID-19