Approaching Sea-Level Rise (SLR) Change: Strengthening Local Responses to Sea-Level Rise and Coping with Climate Change in Northern Mozambique

Approaching Sea-Level Rise (SLR) Change: Strengthening Local Responses to Sea-Level Rise and Coping with Climate Change in Northern Mozambiqu

Avaliação multinível da biodiversidade e alterações climáticas em Moçambique: caminhos locais para o desenvolvimento sustentável

Global changes characterized by the biodiversity loss, marine pollution and coastal degradation, deterioration of air and water resources, climate change, depletion of stratospheric ozone, land use and land cover change, and habitat loss could challenge survival and change patterns of consumption and use of ecosystem services to more than 7 billion people worldwide, if current trends in the natural resources consumption, rising global temperature, rapid and exponential growth of the world population remain unchanged. The scenario could become dramatic in latitudes where most of the population depends directly on biodiversity, ecosystem services and other natural resources (sensitive to environmental factors) for their livelihood, such as Mozambique. Mozambique is considered one of the African countries most exposed and vulnerable to extreme weather events, as well as reduced coping capacities. With a population equal to 28 million people, of which more than 60% living in rural and coastal areas, it faces social, economic, and environmental challenges to reach the sustainable development agenda. Coastal and rural regions are progressively under pressure from multiple social and economic factors and are exacerbated by the adverse impacts of climate change and local extreme events. The combination of those and other factors has increased the vulnerability of local biodiversity, habitats, ecosystem services and peoples. Contributing to the increase of hunger, poverty, and deterioration of essential environmental assets for local development. According to the current context, the main concern has been to rapidly reduce the multiple local pressures, balance social, economic, environmental interests, and promote sustainable actions to increase the well-being of local communities. However, the absence of robust scientific data and information, limited approaches that inform ways to achieve local sustainable development, as well as the absence of strong institutions and legal instruments that guide efforts towards sustainable development, have been considered as one of the barriers and limiting factors for achieving sustainable development goals. In this setting, this PhD thesis intends to contribute to increase the local evidence and knowledge to support solutions towards sustainable development. Therefore, two main goals were defined: 1) To develop multilevel assessments to understand the current status of ecosystems, biodiversity, people and climate change in northern Mozambique, and their implications for progress towards local sustainable development. 2) To broaden the understanding of the topics and contribute to the increase of local scientific evidence that strengthen to the development of integrated policies and decision-making, which promote concrete actions towards local sustainable development. A set of methodological procedures, such as analysis of environmental components using satellite imagery, systematic literature reviews, application of questionnaires, as well as analysis of climate models were applied as tools to support the objectives. We found that the Cabo Delgado province presented limited scientific data and information capable of supporting efforts towards local sustainable development. Terrestrial ecosystems are progressively under pressure due to multiple factors, such as social and economic. Local biodiversity tends to reduce its geography and to confine in regions relatively less pressured and with adequate conditions for its survival. The mean sea level rise tends to increase rapidly compared to global means. The adaptive capacity of the local communities is low, quite vulnerable and exposed to local extreme climate events. Local ecosystem services are poorly recognized by communities, and reduced capacities for managing biodiversity, natural resources, and ecosystem services compromise balanced management, weakening options for equitable sharing of resources between rural communities and other stakeholders. The current context of Cabo Delgado province reveals that the agenda, as well as the sustainable development goals is unlikely to be achieved in the current trajectory. Integrated responses and multilevel actions are necessary to direct efforts towards sustainable development. This thesis presents and discusses a set of pathways for reaching the local and regional sustainable development agenda.As alterações globais caracterizadas por perda da biodiversidade, poluição marinha e degradação costeira, deterioração da qualidade de ar e recursos hídricos, alterações climáticas, destruição do ozono estratosférico, alterações e cobertura do solo, e perda de habitat poderão desafiar a sobrevivência e alterar os padrões de consumo e aproveitamento dos serviços dos ecossistemas a mais de 7 mil milhões de pessoas no mundo, caso as tendências actuais de consumo dos recursos naturais, aumento da temperatura global, crescimento rápido e exponencial da população mundial se mantiverem inalterados. A situação poderá tornar-se dramática nas latitudes onde maior parte da população depende directamente da biodiversidade, serviços dos ecossistemas e outros recursos naturais (sensíveis aos factores ambientais) para a sua subsistência, como Moçambique. Moçambique é considerado um dos países africanos mais expostos e vulnerável aos eventos climáticos extremos, bem como reduzidas capacidades de enfrentamento. Com uma população superior a 28 milhões de pessoas, dos quais mais de 60% situadas nas zonas rurais e costeiras, enfrenta cenários sociais, económicos e ambientais desafiadores para o alcance da agenda desenvolvimento sustentável. As regiões costeiras e rurais estão progressivamente sob pressão devido a múltiplos factores sociais e económicos, e agravadas pelos impactos adversos das alterações climáticos e eventos extremos locais. A combinação daqueles e outros fatores tem aumentado a vulnerabilidade da biodiversidade local, habitats, serviços dos ecossistemas e pessoas. Contribuindo para o aumento da fome, pobreza e deterioração dos ativos ambientais importantes para o desenvolvimento local. De acordo com o contexto atual, a principal preocupação é reduzir rapidamente as múltiplas pressões locais, equilibrar os interesses sociais, económicos e ambientais, e potenciar ações sustentáveis para elevar o bem-estar das comunidades locais. No entanto, limitadas informações científicas robustas, reduzidas abordagens que informam caminhos para concretização dos objetivos de desenvolvimento sustentável, bem como ausência de instituições fortes e instrumentos legais que orientam esforços na direção do desenvolvimento sustentável local, tem sido considerado uma das principais barreiras e fatores limitantes para o alcance dos objetivos de desenvolvimento sustentável. Neste contexto, esta tese pretende contribuir para ampliar as evidências e conhecimentos para apoiar nas soluções locais em direção ao desenvolvimento sustentável. Assim sendo, dois principais objectivos foram definidos: 1) desenvolver avaliações multiníveis para compreender o estado atual dos ecossistemas, biodiversidade, pessoas e alterações climáticas no norte de Moçambique, e suas implicações para o progresso em direção ao desenvolvimento sustentável local. 2) ampliar o entendimento da temática e contribuir para o aumento de evidências científicas locais que fortaleçam acções para o desenvolvimento de políticas integradas e tomadas de decisão, que promovam ações concretas para o desenvolvimento local sustentável. Um conjunto de procedimentos metodológicas, como análises de componentes ambientais com recursos a imagens de satélite, revisões sistemáticas de literaturas, aplicação de questionários, bem como análises de modelos climáticos foram aplicados como ferramentas de apoio aos objectivos. Verificamos que a província de Cabo Delgado apresentada limitados dados e informações científicas capazes de apoiar esforços em direcção ao desenvolvimento sustentável local. Os ecossistemas terrestes estão progressivamente sob pressão devido a múltiplos fatores, como sociais e económicos. A biodiversidade local tende a reduzir a sua geografia e a confinar-se em locais relativamente menos pressionados. Os níveis médios das águas do mar tendem a aumentar rapidamente se comparado as médias globais. A capacidade adaptativa das populações é baixa, bem como vulneráveis e expostas aos eventos climáticos extremos locais. Os serviços dos ecossistemas locais são pouco reconhecidos pelas comunidades, e as reduzidas capacidades de gestão da biodiversidade, recursos naturais, e serviços dos ecossistemas compromete a gestão equilibrada, enfraquecendo as opções de partilha equitativa dos recursos entre as comunidades rurais e outros intervenientes. O cenário da província de Cabo Delgado revela que a agenda, bem como os objetivos desenvolvimento sustentável dificilmente será alcançada na trajetória atual. Respostas integradas e acções multiníveis são necessárias para direcionar esforços no caminho do desenvolvimento sustentável. Esta tese apresenta e discute um conjunto caminhos para o alcance da agenda desenvolvimentos sustentáveis local e regional.Tese financiada pela World Wild Fund (WWF), programa Russell E. Train Education for Nature Program (EFN), e com o apoio do Banco Mundial Moçambique.Programa Doutoral em Biologia e Ecologia das Alterações Globai

Assessment of land use and land cover changes from 1979 to 2017 and biodiversity & land management approach in Quirimbas National Park, Northern Mozambique, Africa

National parks are established with the aim of guaranteeing and protecting natural biodiversity and ecosystems, in a multi-level and integrated approach. Biodiversity conservation, management of protected areas and sustainable development with strategies targeting rural populations are current challenges in Africa, in the context of exponential human population growth, overexploitation of natural resources, forest destruction and climate change. The Quirimbas National Park (QNP) has been suffering from severe and constant threats originating from different sources and changes in land use and land cover. These changes, and in the context of global climate change, pose permanent challenges to the managers of this conservation area of Mozambique. The research aimed to analyze the historical and recent LULC over the last 38 years, to provide consistent and scientific information for decision making on biodiversity conservation approaches; to identify the main changes and their impacts on the ecosystem to implement/develop appropriate mitigation strategies. A combined and integrated methodological approach has been developed from satellite imagery analyzes of Landsat 2 and 5 MSS (Multispectral Scanner); Landsat 5 TM (Thematic Mapper), Landsat 8 OLI (Operational Land Imager), and fieldwork (field observation and communities and QNP staff meetings). The results show that the overall map classification obtained was between very good and excellent: 1979 - Kappa 71.84%, Overall Accuracy 86.55%; 1989 - Kappa 83.49%, Overall Accuracy 93.01%; 1999 - Kappa 85.03%, Overall Accuracy 90.07%; 2009 - Kappa 79.57%, Overall Accuracy 86.42%; 2017 - Kappa 80.24%, Overall Accuracy 86.95%. For 38 years, the QNP lost about 301,761.7ha, corresponding to 41.67% of the total QNP coverage land. The main causes are associated with intensive agriculture, human settlements, population growth, illegal exploitation of forest resources and miners inside of the Quirimbas National Park. The impact extends from territory reduction and fragmentation to vegetation and animal biodiversity loss, human-wildlife conflicts, habitat connectivity loss, species isolation and scaring, and basic resources scarcity for the community's livelihoods. Keywords: Conservation biodiversity, Land use and land cover, Landsat, Quirimbas National Par

Assessing causes and implications of climate-induced migration in Kenya and Ethiopia

Climate-induced migration is an increasingly pressing issue in many African regions, as rising temperatures and extreme weather events have caused the displacement of vulnerable populations. This is especially so in Eastern Africa and the Horn of Africa, particularly Kenya and Ethiopia, where extreme weather events have led to rangeland degradation, crop failures, water shortages, and food insecurity. Hence, there is a perceived need to understand these processes better. Against this background, this paper reports on a study investigating the processes associated with climate-induced migration in Kenya and Ethiopia. The research method used consisted of an expert-driven assessment approach, which assesses the causes of climate-induced migration in Kenya and Ethiopia and its human and social implications on local communities. Data were collected from 110 experts residing and working on climate and migration-related issues in Ethiopia and Kenya via e-mail, whose knowledge of the current situation has enabled the identification of some important trends. The results show that climate change is a primary trigger of migration both internally and externally. The high number of migrants, many of whom living within levels of poverty in their home areas is straining resources and services in the receiving regions. Their presence is also leading to increased competition for jobs and resources. Additionally, it has increased urban poverty, as many migrants have little access to living space and health care. This paper provides a welcome addition to the literature in that it lists the causes and implications of climate-induced migration and, by doing so, fosters a better understanding of the current crisis and its implications. The implications of this paper to the overall knowledge of climate change and migration are twofold. First, it highlights the need for governments, international organisations, and other stakeholders better to understand the complex linkages between climate change and migration. Secondly, it shows the usefulness of better recognising how climate change can drive migration and the other factors shaping the decision to migrate. The paper concludes by stating the urgent need for policies and programmes that support climate change-induced migrants. Also, it draws attention to the usefulness of promoting sustainable development in their origin countries and destinations, so that migration is not necessarily perceived as the only response to climate change. A further conclusion is that there is a perceived need for providing access to resources such as education, health care, and livelihood opportunities and establishing mechanisms to ensure a safe and dignified return for those who choose to do so

Deploying artificial intelligence for climate change adaptation

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is believed to have a significant potential use in tackling climate change. This paper explores the connections between AI and climate change research as a whole and its usefulness in climate change adaptation efforts in particular. Using a systematic review of the literature on applications of AI for climate change adaptation and a questionnaire survey of a multinational and interdisciplinary team of climate change researchers, this paper shows the various means via which AI can support research on climate change in diverse regions, and contribute to efforts towards climate change adaptation. The surveyed articles are classified under nine areas, e.g., Global/Earth Related; Water-related Issues and agriculture, 95% of which are related to adaptation. The areas that have attracted the most studies about AI applications are water-related management issues (38%). In terms of the survey results, the most robust agreements were noted concerning the capacity of digitisation and AI to strengthen governance practices and afford policy coherence in climate change. Evidence gathered in the study suggests that, provided that due care is taken, the use of AI can provide a welcome support to global efforts to better understand and handle the many challenges associated with a changing climate