Finance Without Brownian Motions: An Introduction To Simplified Stochastic Calculus

The paper introduces a simple way of recording and manipulating stochastic processes without explicit reference to a probability measure. In the new calculus, operations traditionally presented in a measure-specific way are instead captured by tracing the behaviour of jumps (also when no jumps are physically present). The new calculus is thus intuitive and compact. The calculus is also fail-safe in that, under minimal assumptions, all formal calculations are guaranteed to yield mathematically well-defined stochastic processes. Several illustrative examples of the new concept are given, among them a novel result on the Margrabe option to exchange one defaultable asset for another

Graphical techniques to assist in pointing and control studies of orbiting spacecraft

Computer generated graphics are developed to assist in the modeling and assessment of pointing and control systems of orbiting spacecraft. Three-dimensional diagrams are constructed of the Earth and of geometrical models which resemble the spacecraft of interest. Orbital positioning of the spacecraft model relative to the Earth and the orbital ground track are then displayed. A star data base is also available which may be used for telescope pointing and star tracker field-of-views to visually assist in spacecraft pointing and control studies. A geometrical model of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) is constructed and placed in Earth orbit to demonstrate the use of these programs. Simulated star patterns are then displayed corresponding to the primary mirror's FOV and the telescope's star trackers for various telescope orientations with respect to the celestial sphere

Towards identifying the world stock market cross-correlations: DAX versus Dow Jones

Effects connected with the world globalization affect also the financial markets. On a way towards quantifying the related characteristics we study the financial empirical correlation matrix of the 60 companies which both the Deutsche Aktienindex (DAX) and the Dow Jones (DJ) industrial average comprised during the years 1990-1999. The time-dependence of the underlying cross-correlations is monitored using a time window of 60 trading days. Our study shows that if the time-zone delays are properly accounted for the two distant markets largely merge into one. This effect is particularly visible during the last few years. It is however the Dow Jones which dictates the trend.Comment: LaTeX, 6 pages, 8 figure

Imprints of log-periodic self-similarity in the stock market

Detailed analysis of the log-periodic structures as precursors of the financial crashes is presented. The study is mainly based on the German Stock Index (DAX) variation over the 1998 period which includes both, a spectacular boom and a large decline, in magnitude only comparable to the so-called Black Monday of October 1987. The present example provides further arguments in favour of a discrete scale-invariance governing the dynamics of the stock market. A related clear log-periodic structure prior to the crash and consistent with its onset extends over the period of a few months. Furthermore, on smaller time-scales the data seems to indicate the appearance of analogous log-periodic oscillations as precursors of the smaller, intermediate decreases. Even the frequencies of such oscillations are similar on various levels of resolution. The related value $\lambda \approx 2$ of preferred scaling ratios is amazingly consistent with those found for a wide variety of other complex systems. Similar analysis of the major American indices between September 1998 and February 1999 also provides some evidence supporting this concept but, at the same time, illustrates a possible splitting of the dynamics that a large market may experience.Comment: 13 pages, LaTeX-REVTeX, 4 PS figures. Significantly extended version to appear in The European Physical Journal

Are the contemporary financial fluctuations sooner converging to normal?

Based on the tick-by-tick price changes of the companies from the U.S. and from the German stock markets over the period 1998-99 we reanalyse several characteristics established by the Boston Group for the U.S. market in the period 1994-95, which serves to verify their space and time-translational invariance. By increasing the time scales we find a significantly more accelerated crossover from the power-law (alpha approximately 3) asymptotic behaviour of the distribution of returns towards a Gaussian, both for the U.S. as well as for the German stock markets. In the latter case the crossover is even faster. Consistently, the corresponding autocorrelation functions of returns and of the time averaged volatility also indicate a faster loss of memory with increasing time. This route towards efficiency may reflect a systematic increase of the information processing when going from past to present.Comment: 14 pages, revised versio

The Holy Girl (La Niña Santa)

This is a review of The Holy Girl (La Niña Santa) (2004)

Weak tail conditions for local martingales

© Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2019. The following conditions are necessary and jointly sufficient for an arbitrary càdlàg local martingale to be a uniformly integrable martingale: (A) The weak tail of the supremum of its modulus is zero; (B) its jumps at the first-exit times from compact intervals converge to zero in L 1 on the events that those times are finite; and (C) its almost sure limit is an integrable random variable